After a long break from superiors eyes were opened to the difficulties of ordinary people. Promise bounties again becomes a good tone.
A few days ago, speaking with workers of the Tver, Vladimir Putin informed them that raising the minimum wage to the subsistence level will happen much earlier than stated in the law that he just signed it, not with January 1, 2019, and may 1, 2018. Then the Ministry of labor for any couple of days have produced a bill on this subject. Now it is only for parliamentary buttons.
It is clear that this sudden change of mind is part of the electoral ritual, though fairly inexpensive. The bounty will affect about one-seventeenth of the employee, and only a few of these lucky ones will indeed be a smidgen richer. Most other employers will pay less black and more white, and some just get fired.
Not less clear that urgent increase in the minimum wage — the answer man whose name is the head of state has never named publicly. However, instead of the promised Bulk minimum of 25 thousand. the current government favor the poor can only 11.2 thousand rubles. But it’s the bird that still deemed necessary to give people hands on. And they say that the government does not listen to the opposition. Very differently, but listens.
However, in addition to the above two points, there is a third and, in my opinion, is more important. It’s not just in actions, timed to the 18th of March. Many signs can be seen that the part of the authorities suddenly wanted to, so to speak, to face the people.
Here is a recent example. Presidential assistant for Economics Andrei Belousov has just confirmed the authenticity of the leaks, according to which in the Kremlin administration now agree with many recipes Kudrinsky CSR. They say Putin asked (note: not ordered, asked) in the late spring, when there will be free time to draft a so-called “budget maneuver”, tending to ensure that in the coming years to increase by 1.5% of GDP expenditure on education and medicine. If we are really talking about recipes Kudrin, the money is encouraged to find, reducing the cost of control apparatus and all power departments, except the military, as well as ceasing too successfully to deal with the budget deficit.
It, again, is not about solutions, only about the apical disputes. And quite passionate, as can be judged. The military has repulsed all previous attempts on their allocations, and this time the system reformers are not at risk to them even to approach. As for the auditors, supervisors and other security forces, if those controllers and security forces, which we knew still repulse them.
But interesting, agree, the question itself. For many years austerity on ordinary people was viewed by our leadership as a natural way of solving all problems and in General for granted. And all of a sudden begin to discuss upstairs and even how to look for other options. We assume that there came some information that the patience of the common people, though infinitely, but can burst.
In addition, the balances of the national economy, finally agreed — and now is the time to think how to live further.
In 2017 the Federal budget deficit fell to 1.6% of GDP (1.5 trillion rubles) Decreased emission: according to preliminary estimates, the money supply (M2 aggregate) grew only by 7% (2.7 trillion) And the increase in consumer prices was the most conservative post-Soviet history — by 3.7%. Stopped seems to be the economic downturn. Despite the unfortunate the second half of the year as a whole in 2017 will be fixed polutorakratnoe increase in GDP. Of course, all of the above — state reporting figures. In the real world things are worse. But a balance is really achieved. Therefore, it is possible to begin to fight for something else. Even for the care of people.
As this care would look like if it really will deliver on the long rails, we can judge by the campaign for the implementation of “may decrees” of 2012.
First, these decrees not even close to done in the form in which contained. They only suspended the gap of health and education on earnings from other sectors. Second, a large part of the additional money went not to those who perform real work, and medical education bureaucrats, and interdepartmental supervisors. What was inevitable. Indeed, the very formulation of the task in the decrees of zeroing the device is not to improve the situation of those who heals and teaches, and those who are treated and learn, and in the production of beautiful state reports. Thirdly, public utility workers, two areas also got something, albeit less other.
Hardly neodoljive beginnings of a wider backswing will depart from these patterns. That is, people from them, too, something will get. But not the main piece.
It remains to answer the last question: where will the money?
1. Exemption of appropriations from the auditors and guardians. It is theoretically possible, but in practice is almost unthinkable.
2. The common people can have something to fall intermittently from the economic growth, if any. At least some success in carrying out paragraph 1 this growth just would. But we, again, realistic. Therefore, economic growth is likely to be symbolic (option — fabricated gosstatistiki) and tangible revenue growth commoners will bring.
3. Simply increasing government expenditures and therefore budget deficit. This is the most possible way. Spending can raise. Don’t be afraid essakane national funds, which scares the Ministry of Finance. Budget deficits of recent years were covered not by dollars from minfinovskih funds, and banal ruble issue. Schema manipulation called “spending currency from the Reserve Fund” in which the foreign exchange reserves of the state are somehow not declining, but growing, not just described, and will not repeat them.
For the three crisis years (2015 — 2017), the ruble supply (M2) increased by 28% (to $ 9 trillion. RUB) as slow as she was growing up, as already mentioned, in 2017. But nothing prevents to increase the annual emissions of half a trillion and trillion rubles. Would the leader of the order. The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will do, even if not in full than they would today, nor threatened. Yes, inflation will rise again. But even the progressive wing of the apparatus of this almost reconciled and have already recorded in their forecasts to 2018.
Only in such part and only such methods stagnant system capable of at least some change to throw ordinary to his subjects. Do not be surprised as the pianist plays. He plays like he can. Be surprised by the tunes that he’s suddenly interested.
