Petro Poroshenko spoke about the “open war” with Russia. The President shoots two birds with one stone: to escalate the situation in Ukraine, hinting at the introduction of martial law, and probes the soil — how the West will react to a possible postpone or cancel the presidential election
“For Russia, there are “red lines”, including open war,” said Poroshenko in an interview to the Serbian TV channel RTS on Wednesday, July 4.
This has not happened. To the anti-Russian statements Poroshenko in Ukraine have long been accustomed to, but “open warfare” the President did not say. “Hybrid war”, “aggression”, “enemy of Moscow” — it all sounds regularly and the reaction does not cause. But in March 2019 presidential election, nowhere to go, need to raise rates.
However, he said that in the Donbass “is not a frozen conflict, it is a hot war,” and “in the occupied territories is more military equipment than in the arms of Germany — 700 Russian tanks, over 1,000 artillery systems and more than 300 systems of volley fire”.
Salvation from political death
It is important that the war with Russia Poroshenko spoke with the Serbian TV station in Serbia, the President went on an official visit. The statement is clearly designed not only to intimidate possible military situation in the country is Ukrainian, but also in the West.
Serbian TV platform, of course, modest, but international. So, if Poroshenko does not pull up, the reaction of the world community will not, you can continue to stick to anti-Russian line and to raise the rates. Because the only way the current President could become President the following: play the role of a “hawk”, the main singer of war and radical in the country.
If this does not increase ratings, the option of martial law: “what are the choices when we have “open war”?
So, the President is not going anywhere, conserves power and continues to clean up the country. The West will probably be against it, and such will not approve. But the stakes are too high to lose the election the leader of the opinion polls Yulia Tymoshenko to the President’s political death.
Remains to risk.
Analyst Pavel Rudyakov not see in the statements Poroshenko fundamental novelty. Yes, the President raises the stakes, preparing for elections, but he repeats the theses of the Secretary of the Council of national security and defense Council (NSDC) Alexander Turchinov.
“Two years — two and-a-half ago Turchinov once in two weeks said: “now Russian aggression, the Russians will attack from the Crimea three days from the beginning of Russian aggression”. Held for two weeks, and he said, “I Have accurate data, now the Russians will start the aggression against us on the part of Chernigov. Within 24 hours of beginning.” It is constantly mentioned, to support the tone and steal the money from the military budget with maximum ease. Therefore these statements are a repetition, just in a more clear, catchy wording,” — said the expert.
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In General, I’m sure Rudyakov, Poroshenko just tightens pre-election rhetoric is business as usual for Ukrainian politics.
At the same time the country’s leaders strengthen their own power, control over the security forces continue to sweep the journalists.
Freedom of speech is not for everyone
In addition to Poroshenko, loud bellicose statements of the distinguished chief military Prosecutor of Ukraine Anatoly Matios. In television he said that in the armed forces of the country may appear “Barnaul” and “Murmansk” shelves “if the Russian army will try to enter the Ukrainian territory.”
“Ukraine still has not won. Let them try, then we will have, I think, Bakhchisaray and shelves Barnaul, Murmansk, and so on,” — said Matios is the same as that of GLV of the state day, July 4th, only at home, in Kiev.
So the chief military Prosecutor responded signed on 30 June by Vladimir Putin decrees on the name of the 6th tank regiment “guards of Lviv”, the 68th regiment — “guards Zhitomir-Berlin”, and the 163rd regiment — “guards Nezhin”.
Needless to say that the renaming of regiments — not in the competence of the military Prosecutor. Apparently, he just wanted to Flex its muscles, to speak.
Though actually, we think the statement of the Matios, a member of the team acting Ukrainian President, should complement the nuances of an aggressive statement of the President.