The threat hanging over women 40 years and older who do not wish to be retrained, reductions of trade, municipalities and the banking sector.
The Creator of the project “Antipasto” Alena Vladimirskaya told about what will work in 2018. According to the expert, many will survive from the market “machines”. “With horror, imagine what will happen when the sellers and cashiers suddenly start to lose a job. Slow automation in our case — the pledge of stability of the country”, — said Vladimir.
Compared with the year 2016, when every position in Moscow, had an average of 700 summary (usually 7), the situation has stabilized. From month to month the number of vacancies is growing at 10-12%.
“It would seem that we are coming out of a staffing crisis, and all seems to be fine. But really — no. The number of vacancies increases at the expense of salespeople at different levels, because the business can no longer operate passively as before — due to the incoming customer demand. For the rest, it’s not as good as it seems”, — says Vladimir.
“This year we expect more reductions in banks. One of the biggest players in the market preparing to cut up to 20 thousand people, and is now conducting a tender among handingover agencies that will be engaged in the redevelopment of the retired employees,” she said.
The reduction in the banking sector are not so much with crisis, how many with progress. When all banking services we are mobile, small regional offices are not needed.
“Automation plus, the crisis will eat for the next year or two about 20 per cent of the total banking industry. Portrait of an employee who will get laid first: woman 40 years, with a very narrow and outdated skills that are not where applicable. With leadership experience, so the start position will not do. Not and do not want to learn. Overpaid, does not understand the real situation on the labour market. And those are going out very much”, — says Vladimir.
Will complete the picture of a reduction in municipal employees. According to the expert, it will be lower-level officials — Deputy heads of some tiny departments, too much “overpaid” have no actual skills, I do not want to learn, and love to lead.
Retail for this year will reduce 7-10% of the workforce is also due to automation. “Soon the market will take the most complex from the standpoint of the recruitment profession: salesman, cashier, packer. Automated cash is already in Moscow, Petersburg, Novosibirsk. They are not wrong, not rude, not sick, and not asking for salary. When there are few visitors, some of them can be turned off to save on electricity. In order to organize the work, you need three to four engineers. In the result, the whole story becomes wildly profitable”, — says Vladimir.
On the horizon three or four years, automation will affect ordinary accountants, lawyers, recruiters. “We already have one very famous Novosibirsk service, which brought together accountants and firms from regions with cheap labor. It already took almost the entire segment of small and medium businesses. While all the work people are doing there, but apparently now the company is working on a programme, and soon the accountants will replace the algorithms,” — said the expert.
If your work can be broken down into tasks and write for each program in the nearest 5-7 years, someone will do it. But dying profession will be different. According to the forecasts of Vladimir, librarians will last longer accountants because the accounting market where more and more profitable.
Well, the country is big and conservative, and technologization is slow. Otherwise, millions of people suddenly would have lost earnings.
“But I want to emphasize that the market will take it ordinary experts — not experts. Good translators, accountants will remain with us for a long time,” said hunter.
At the same time, workers of high rank, while not drinking, make big cities more than marketers. Such specialists are in great demand, companies keep them until the last. They have a great future.
But representatives of the creative professions have not sweet. Radio and Newspapers were dying, television jobs are still there, but they are entry level, with a hard age limit and very low wages.
At the same time, your media appear in the business. But if you had a similar “edition” lobbied some political things, now they’re taking them for the formation of a loyal community around the company. Anyway, the authors of texts and editors demanded again.
There are many job senior managers — top-managers, financial Directors, HR Directors. But all this — the jobs to replace it. “The owners that were sitting in warm countries and received dividends, the crisis returned to Russia to save his business. Some did not work with the current team, accustomed to autonomy. Others decided development Directors to change on crisis management. Companies don’t want to evolve, they want to survive. So they need people with other skills. As a result, the “old” top managers of the major sectors coming to the market in a year and a half cannot find work”, — said Vladimir.
On the General background feel good only to large parastatal companies such as Rostelecom or RUSNANO, in which the number of vacancies (not to be confused with wages) will only grow. This year they have planned a decent set of employees.
Traditionally well in the IT sector. The number of vacancies each month, growing at 13-15%. Wages do not fall even in the most severe time. “If in Yandex reduce salaries, people will go immediately to Google. Our programmers willingly dismantle European and American companies,” — said the expert.
Rapidly growing agricultural sector. In the industry there was a demand for people with good language and knowledge of international markets, who are able to build logistics, Finance, promotion. For the first time in many years in the Central Chernozem region went expensive top-managers from Moscow and St. Petersburg. In the agricultural regions need people with real skills and they are willing to pay well.
“Great demand for people are now in the crypt. Moreover, in demand not only programmers, but people from konsalta, marketing, PR, product management”, — said the expert.
“Usually, the blockchain projects is a couple of programmers with no experience of management and promotion. If the project is suddenly fired, a lot of money. Programmers who are smarter, buy more of the right people, in order for this growth to make a full business,” she explained.
For the first time in many decades be potentially used by engineers. “Suddenly Russia became one of the most progressive countries in terms of robotics. Appeared IT managers a very high level with a lot of money and interest in this area. Dmitry Grishin, who runs Mail.ru Group, has created a Fund to invest in consumer robotics. Sergey Belousov is an entrepreneur, the founder of the company, Acronis, recently investing heavily in IT start-UPS. As a result, we are seeing great potential in the development of robotics. In this area the money came from the defense. By the way, Silicon valley was also built on military money, it’s okay, I do not see this. Now, suddenly, we have become sought-after engineers. But it turned out that the engineers there. The people who call themselves engineers often worked on the profile 5-7-10 years ago,” — said the expert.
In Russia boom of online education. Universities finally took the defensive, acknowledging that online is not a competition offline, and a good marketing tool. In this area need teachers, methodologists, videographers and editors. A very popular producers of online education, but ready professionals, according to Vladimir, not now. Most people come here out of games and media. But teachers, for example, without additional training to work as a producer of online education extremely difficult.
The demand for cheap leisure activities: cinema, ice rinks, rope parks. Particularly successful projects at the intersection of entertainment and education.
The great demand for designers and urban design. “In development there is a crisis and it is a long time. Must pass a minimum of 3-5 “fat” years that people have accumulated money and began to buy apartments. Now, the harder it is to sell the property, the more noticeable the growing urban industry. Apartments, estates, especially those built in the wrong places, you need to pack well. The worse the economy is, the better you need to package your product, whatever it was. Therefore, the design, the urban planning is everything” — said Vladimir.
Growing charity. From the “it’s my little Fund, do what they want” it turns into a real industry that lives by its own laws. The professionals who do the fundraising, very popular.
In large corporations a large demand for environmentalists. But to delude oneself ahead of time is not necessary, warns hunter. “It’s not the environmentalists who will protect us from you. Corporations hire ecologists to have developed environmental programs that will enable businesses to stay within the law,” — said the expert.
Before the crisis, many of our companies have abellis. Some — in the future, it is advantageous to sell the business to IPO. In any case, salaries in envelopes in large plans for the future did not fit. Now 50-60% of companies (mostly small and medium enterprises) has returned to the gray schemes. To the last salary in case of dismissal from this office rarely.
“My appeal to all parents to teach children to major universities, because the University becomes a real start in life. Through College to get into a good company now a lot easier than the street.
If you have a liberal arts education provincial College, you will be quite difficult to get. If you finish a banking institution not in the first dozen, too. Easier to find a job graduates of the major technological universities. Here you need to understand that any prestigious University has its own community. So, Mail.ru Group loves to take people from Bauman because he Grishin its finished. Yandex is more inclined to MSU because it was done Volozh,” said Vladimir.
At the same time, work on the principle of brand company, expert advises. “First and foremost, look at your future boss, be sure to talk to him. It is very important how the first job you will have to raise, give a real challenge. You can work in any large company — to make signs in Excel. But two years later, the guy who all this time spent in the smaller company, but has evolved and decide real cases, you are bound. In this case, you will be uncompetitive and will hate work forever. I think most people who have developed a career, remember that in the initial stage they are very lucky — there was a man who was raised”, — concluded Vladimir.
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