Who will benefit from a split in the camp of yesterday’s regionals

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Fractional ship of the Opposition bloc risks repeating the fate of the Titanic after the split in Parliament, associated with the consideration of the judicial reform 3 Oct

If earlier representatives of the factions, consisting mainly of yesterday’s regionals, tried not to wash dirty linen in public and otherwise hiding the internal contradictions, before the “bubble burst”. The reason was the vote of the deputies of the faction ABOUT the judicial reform document, which lobbied for the Bank. It is this vote so fallen out of opublikoval that some of their representatives spoke about the establishment of intra-faction of the opposition platform.

The bill was filed more than 4 thousand edits, so it is considered in plenary weeks, but in the end the cries of parliamentarians “shame!” and “Knopkodavstvo” 234 votes still were approved. The basis of the judicial reform support predictably made up the people’s deputies from BPP (111 votes) and the “popular front” (70). “Batkivschyna” and “Samopomich” votes not given. The document was adopted thanks to the support of the parliamentary groups “Vidrodzhennya” (17 votes) and “the will of the people” (10 votes). Also voted for the five independent and one radical.

But those votes would not be enough for adoption of effective solutions, if not for the support of the representatives of the opposition bloc. 20 of the 43 MPs of ABOUT, including, in particular, the co-chairs of the faction Yuriy Boyko and Alexander Vilkul, supported the bill. 11 opublikoval did not vote, 10 were missing and only two clicked “vs” is Vadim Novinsky and Mikhail Dobkin. The latter immediately announced their withdrawal from the party, while not specifying leave the faction. “Taken together, the so-called dictatorial laws to any comparison do not go with the prevailing shame about judicial reform,” — said Dobkin.

In turn, Novinsky immediately after the vote announced the creation of the party and the faction of the “internal opposition platform”. Explaining his position, he stated that “this bill allows the President to fully control the judiciary.” It is paradoxical but true: talking about internal opposition, Vadim Novinsky denies the possibility of a split in the opposition bloc.

Experts interviewed by the Focus, hold the opposite opinion. They state: the split of the opposition bloc the inevitable a priori.

“The opposition bloc could not stand the pressure agreements with the authorities”

“If the talk of a split in ABOUT were only rumors, because its representatives have demonstrated at least formal unity, now this split in fact is made public. No one even tries to hide that there is a group Novinsky, which tends Vilkul, there are other more moderate groups. I think that by the next Congress of the opposition bloc they should certainly be defined organizationally. The split will take place and, despite the fact that it will be akin to political forces, they will have a different electorate and a different problem,” said the political scientist Vitaly Kulik. According to experts, no the ins and outs to look for here is not worth it, “the opposition bloc just couldn’t handle the pressure the agreements on the part of the authorities.”

“In ABOUT dominated by the business interests of different groups over political ones. But, anyway, in any case, the opposition bloc in the format in which it existed before, exist no more. They hope not to lose votes, but on the contrary, going to the polls in two columns, will retain and even multiply the electorate. But the question is whether they will be able in such a short time to create parties and startonut” — sums up the expert.

The divergence of economic interests of different groups within the Opposition bloc, a key reason for the split within the faction, believes Maxim Latsyba of the Ukrainian center for independent political research. Expert focuses on the following point: “One of the groups focused ON by Rinat Akhmetov, the second Alliance such figures as Firtash and Lyovochkin. Very often the group associated with Akhmetov, and supports initiatives that are important to the President and BPP, but the group of Firtash — Levochkina, by contrast, has some contradictions with Petro Poroshenko”.

And this, according to Laceby, there is a logical explanation: “In narrow circles talking about agreements between Poroshenko and Akhmetov on the formula, the calculation of energy prices. We are talking about “Rotterdam+””. The main beneficiary from the inflated price of coal is DTEK Rinat Akhmetov’s business. Poroshenko controls the composition of NERC, which has established such a high price for coal. But Firtash and Levochkin, whose interests in the gas business, obviously, failed to agree”.

Don’t need a magnifying glass to see the confusion and vacillation in ABOUT beneficial primarily Bankova, as the voices support group Akhmetov (which is half of the faction of the opposition bloc) — the key to making the “right” AP laws, as the ruling parliamentary majority exists except in the imaginations both real and declarative management of the PPO and “popular front”.

Bankova main goal is to find “convenient” for Poroshenko sparring partner for the second round of presidential elections

Akhmetov, going on a situational agreement with the country’s leadership, was also not left with nothing. First, it is logical that he, finding with the power of the negotiation points of contact, receives a guarantee of the inviolability of his business Empire from the security forces. And that if to perform “raids”, for example, by the GPU, on the former regions and their businesses — fact. Akhmetov and his possessions will not touch.

Second, if now the Donetsk oligarch, with Parliament controlled by a group of 20 people, can negotiate with the authorities about, say, a mutually beneficial partnership, then at the next election his influence in Parliament (in view of the situation in the Donbas, where post-election victory is traditionally celebrated, “Akhmetov’s people”) can drop below the floor.

In this context we should not forget about the frequent conversations about the merger of the BPP and people’s front. This is increasingly more vocal and closest associates of the President, for example, Igor Kononenko.

It is a very colorful, but, nevertheless, understandable from the point of view of Bankova, puzzle: absorbed SF, split ABOUT the Deputy group “people’s Will” and “Revival”, often simultaneously voting with the coalition. Well, the wings still have Lyashko, the impact on the political force which is not once mentioned above Rinat Akhmetov does not know is that child.

All of the above factions and groups today are on a short leash at the presidential administration, and Petro Poroshenko, if the situation will continue to develop in the same direction, apparently, will keep his word and “never allow early parliamentary elections.” But this is the problem at least. The main purpose of Bankova is that in the ranks of the above factions and groups to find “convenient” for the incumbent sparring partner for the second round of the upcoming presidential elections.

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