Who invites Baku to middle Eastern hell?

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Кто приглашает Баку в ближневосточный ад?

Azerbaijan was among the few States that has supported the Turkey operation “Olive branch” in the North of Syria. However, did it only at the level of statements by the head of the press service of the Azerbaijani foreign Ministry Hikmet Hajiyev, who used a slim and streamlined language. “Baku is fully aware of substantial concern to the Ankara security in connection with terrorist threats — said Hajiyev. Azerbaijan as a country that has suffered from terrorism, strongly condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and supports the efforts of the international community in this fight.

As stated by the government of Turkey, the aim of “operation Olive branch” is border security, the elimination of terrorist threats in the region and the protection of civilians living in the region, from terrorist attacks and threats. We wish the brotherly Turkey and the Turkish people to never have been treacherous terrorist attacks.”

In this sense, the statement is not Hajiyev fundamental differences from those of the statements made by some other countries, including Turkey’s allies in NATO, including the US, who also believe that Turkey has the right to protect itself from “terrorist”attacks. Note also that the speaker of the foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan, contrary to the assertions of some experts did not use the phrase “against the Kurds”. Although there is no sign in favor of Baku, have long been integrated into politics of the Middle East, does not have a clear idea about the situation in Northern Syria and motives that led Ankara to the decision to begin “operation Olive branch”. It is obvious that it is unlikely that Turkey feared any attack from Syria and its actions therefore have a fundamentally different motivation.

As writes the newspaper “Caspian”, Ankara became the transition for the “red line” the US decision to build along the Syrian-Turkish border 30-km zone, which must be controlled actively supported by Americans of Syrian Kurds “Democratic Union” (PYD) and the “people’s protection Units” (YPG). Their Turkey considers its announced affiliated with the terrorist Kurdistan workers ‘ party (PKK). Moreover, Ankara fears that Syria may receive Kurdish autonomy with a view to statehood. Consequently, under the pretext of fight against terrorism Turkey, first of all for itself, acute geopolitical problem. However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that “to respect territorial integrity of Syria, sovereignty and political unity”. And “once “operation Olive branch” will reach its goals, Turkey will leave from there”.

But then there are important nuances. By all indications, the conduct of Ankara operations in Afrin was agreed with Moscow, Tehran and Washington. However, the official Damascus to start fighting the Turkish army in the region is perceived as an act of aggression against the sovereignty of Syria. And such actions of Turkey, as many experts believe, “contrary to the principles that tries to protect Azerbaijan in different international platforms”, if you keep in mind the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, the Azeri media began to be published, the authors argue that “in a sense, Turkish experience of solving difficult tasks will be useful and Baku in its counter-terrorism war” that “comes the turn for the long-awaited beginning of the counterterrorist operation on the temporarily occupied territories of Azerbaijan” that “the operation of Turkey in Northern Syria serves as an excellent precedent for Azerbaijan” subject to “demonstration of Turkey’s political and military maneuverability, thinking not only about their own safety, but also about the future of a turbulent region.”

Or even so — “the Nagorno-Karabakh area of Azerbaijan, which are illegal armed forces of Armenia, fused with terrorist groups also needs to be cleared and cleansed.” No more and no less. And the Azerbaijani General Yasar moat declares that “the fighting in Karabakh can start at any time: the war will be swift, accurate and powerful blows” and that “Azerbaijan should take into account the experience of Turkey in terms of operations in Karabakh.” There was talk about the “neutralization of Russia” — “we need to create the situation, as did Ankara, with the tacit support of Moscow in the conduct of operations in Northern Syria.” There is another combination, which sounded Baku portal Vesti.Az ex-Minister of foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, Tofig Zulfugarov.

According to him, “the leadership of Armenia is trying to provoke Azerbaijan by various promotions in the occupied territories, the construction of facilities, periodic consideration of the recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic”. This is the first. Second: “the Armenian Leadership will attempt under any pretext to involve Russia in a possible military action.” Finally, the third: “since the end of the simulation stage of the negotiation process, which is associated with Pro-Armenian position of the foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Lavrov, of course, the Russian political elite will have a serious interest to solve some of the issues related to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict”.

We also note the following. Of course, the Turkish operation” Olive branch” will be studied in the headquarters of many armies, including Azerbaijan. From the combat zone receives conflicting information, but it becomes clear to Ankara’s military invasion was not a cakewalk. It is also clear that Washington has no intention to leave Syria. The United States will continue to support the Syrian Kurds and the conglomerate of various terrorist groups. In this threat the Americans in Ankara saying that they are interested in a greater immersion of the Turks into the “Syrian swamp”. The war there will be long-term in nature. The ability of Turkey to provide military support to Azerbaijan if it launches military operations in Nagorno Karabakh will be limited.

If Baku decides on such action, it will mean the integration of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in a network of numerous middle East conflicts with access to their settlement in a radically new geopolitical situation, the main essence of which will be simultaneous participation in the wars of two Turkic States — Turkey and Azerbaijan, with the potential involvement of Iran. The Secretary of state Rex Tillerson said that his country will continue to be present in Syria, not only to combat terrorist groups, but also in order to “curb” Iran, leaving “the Assad regime”. At the same time, the American geographical expansion goals will inevitably lead to some operational improvements, and policies of Russia, Iran and Turkey in the region.

May be a new phenomenon — “war of all against all” that is fraught with unexpected complications that will cover the Transcaucasia, including Azerbaijan. And then the problems. Not see and do not understand such prospects can only be either blind or deaf. While it is theoretically possible to assume collisions between Ankara and Damascus, between Ankara and Tehran. And Moscow’s withdrawal from the coalition with Ankara and Tehran, “due to their inflated geopolitical requirements.” Then you face the problem of the territories, including Nagorno Karabakh’s status. That’s why Baku is now necessary to find ways to compromise with Yerevan and Stepanakert, not war, which will have a completely different geopolitical logical conclusion than that on which he now relies.

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