What will happen with Moscow after renovation?

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Что будет с Москвой после реновации?

In the second decade of February, speaking to media representatives, the mayor of Moscow Sergey Sobyanin said that currently 90% of all apartments in new buildings acquired by the inhabitants of the capital. And since in the city the lowest amounts of residential construction, continued the official, only 0.25 square meters per person, the offer does not keep pace with demand. Which, by the way, the mayor stressed, is huge. Therefore, all the talk about the fact that as a result of the implementation of the program of renovation of the city’s population will grow by at least 1.5 million people, are complete nonsense.

“SP” asked the real estate professionals, whether dealing with buildings and demand situation, as it seems Sobyanin. The responses received suggest that the real situation in the housing market does not dock with the point of view of the official.

“SP”: — What is the percentage between home buyers from the regions and indigenous Muscovites in the overall flow of buyers of new buildings of Moscow? Does the approval Sobyanin about 90% of buyers-Muscovites is the real situation?

Residents of the regions has always been actively present on Moscow real estate market, — says managing partner of “Vektorstroyfinans” Andrew Kolacinski. And lately their interest has not diminished, but rather increased. Today, when the prices for new buildings in Moscow and Moscow region is almost equal, and mortgages became more available, people don’t miss the opportunity to solve their housing issue. If the regionals were mainly focused on the market of new buildings of Moscow region, today the capital objects absorb part of the demand. In our residential complexes we can say that the proportion of buyers from cities near Moscow — Balashikha, Rail and so on — is 40%, the number of customers from other regions are not so large — only 5%. In recent months, we were approached by clients from Norilsk, Krasnoyarsk, Voronezh. Traditionally active buyers of real estate in Moscow are residents of the oil regions, where incomes are higher than the national average.

— In the post-crisis years supports the counterpart member of the affiliate network of CBRE, managing partner of the company “Metrium Groups” Maria Litinetskaya, — internal migration from the periphery to the center, especially qualified personnel, increased, as the situation with incomes and unemployment in the regions is much worse than in Moscow. In such circumstances, the share of buyers from the provinces to the capital buildings has increased. Today from the Moscow region come to about 15% of buyers from other regions of the country — 20%. The remaining 65% -Muscovites.

About the same figures and the head of the analytical center “INKOM-real Estate” Dmitry Taganov. According to him, the current structure of demand, the share of Muscovites is about 60%, 25% are buyers from the Moscow region, and 15% for buyers from Russian regions.

“SP”: — whether the capital has witnessed huge customer demand for new buildings within the metropolis?

According to rosreestra, — says Dmitry Taganov, — in January the number of registered contracts equity was 3 times more than in January 2017. And it is interesting that the growth of transactions on POS greater than the increase in the number of purchases using the mortgage loan. That is, the increasing availability of mortgages is not 100% determines the increase in demand in the primary market. This shows that the growth of demand for new buildings is objective.

But let’s look at the situation not from the point of view of the dynamics of demand, and its static volume — offers Maria Litinetskaya. — According to official figures, Moscow is home to 12 million people. According to some estimates, taking into account undocumented migrants, as well as residents, who come every day to work or study in the capital, Moscow is actually home to almost 19 million. It is obvious that remaining after simple arithmetic operations 5-7 million people one way or another is the question of housing in Moscow, as their life is connected with this city. And Muscovites themselves often in need of better housing conditions or resettlement of large families consisting of several generations. That is, the potential number of people requiring housing in Moscow, calculated if not millions, then hundreds of thousands of people, and the account of real transactions is in the tens of thousands. So the mayor is partly right when he talks about the huge demand. But with one small amendment that we are talking about potential rather than effective demand.

— The demand can’t absorb the current volume of supply on the capital market of new buildings, which are close to overstocking, — says Andrey Kalachinsky. In the past year in Moscow it was about 50 new projects, added to that new housing in residential complexes at the stage of implementation. As a result, over recent years, the volume of supply in the primary housing market in Moscow has increased more than two fold and exceeded 3 million square meters, which is comparable to the volume of supply in the suburbs.

“SP”: — whether the capital is built a little shelter, only 0.25 “square” person?

— According to the Unified register of contractors, in Moscow, is built of 11.5 million square feet — brings dry figures Maria Litinetskaya. — Per the official resident of the capital obtained is 0.9 square meter, but taking into account the real situation with migration, most likely per person is about 0,5−0,6 “square”.

As the volume of new housing, annually in Moscow rent of approximately 3.5 million square metres, slightly below the peak last decade, when the total area of commissioned new buildings per year could reach 4-4. 5 million square meters. In General, volumes are high, but the real need is certainly higher, as the housing stock of Moscow is largely obsolete housing.

It is necessary to consider, — says Dmitry Taganov, that the rate of input of houses in operation — it is not an indicator of the situation on the market of real estate capital. On the primary housing market in Moscow in recent years is marked as the growth in demand and a significant increase in the supply. Because the primary housing market active, most apartments in houses are sold even at the stage of construction. Therefore, I believe, it is not necessary to draw Parallels between the rate of input of houses in operation and as supply of apartments and demand.

Perhaps the only thing the professionals of the real estate capital market agree with the mayor, it’s the fact that a marked increase in the population of the capital as a result of the sale of housing in Moscow the new program of renovation may not happen. However, this issue is unambiguous consent is not observed.

— I would not say that the growth of sales of apartments in new buildings somehow determines the increase in the number of residents in Moscow, — says Dmitry Taganov. — I think, it is rather a blend, such local migrations from near Moscow to Moscow, and from Moscow to the suburbs.

— The program of renovation, of course, will not cause population growth, suggests Maria Litinetskaya. — That is, the number of people in the capital will continue to increase as well, as if the word “renovation” nobody heard, and the market there would be an additional 17 million square meters of housing for sale to cover the expenses of the city Treasury. But, of course, the formal number of residents will grow. The lower mortgage rates if you have a huge volume of supply of affordable apartments (and they are numerous), more and more visitors will prefer renting an apartment buy their own homes. Accordingly, they will register at their new address, whereas now the majority of tenants do not think about obtaining a temporary registration.

Andrew Kolacinski claims that the population of Moscow increased steadily over the past 10 years has increased by more than $ 2 million. This process is irreversible, it will happen regardless of the renovation program.

— However, on the other hand, acknowledges the expert, the result of the renovation of the old borders of the capital will be a seal of the urban environment. It is inevitable, because in the former five-story building will be housing, which will be at least three times higher. Of course, the number of inhabitants in the areas included in the program of renovation to increase. To assess how, yet difficult. But experts voiced different figures — from 500 thousand to 4 million people.

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