Turkey has repeatedly received warnings from powerful forces in the region, concerned about the intention of Ankara to start the operation in ‘ afrīn. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad bluntly warned that “it will be regarded as an invasion of the territory of Syria.” However, the Turkish government under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took a chance.
The regions controlled by the “Democratic Union” — the Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan workers party (PKK), which Turkey defines as a terrorist — Ankara sees as a threat to its national security. Long-term plans of the USA concerning Afrin are also of concern. According to experts, with the support of the Americans will create a “Kurdish corridor” to the Mediterranean sea, which will lead to the creation of a Kurdish state. Turkey naturally sees the Association Afrin Kobani the most important milestone of the project “Kurdish corridor”, therefore, seeks to take it. However, can the invasion be explained this? Or are there other reasons for “operation Olive branch” that could lead to large losses?
If Turkey tries to prevent the formation of a Kurdish state on its southern borders, then why publicly supported in Iraqi Kurdistan the Barzani government. Autonomy, closest to the creation of a Kurdish state? How many times, inviting Barzani to Turkey, invited him to meetings and airtime, along with other leading figures, including Erdogan. Accepted in Ankara as the national leader of the Kurds. Met on the areas of Diyarbakir on the eve of elections in November 2013 with performances of folk singer Shiwan Pervera singing songs in the Kurdish language, as well as rooms of a famous singer of Kurdish origin Ibrahim Tatlises. That day in the squares Erdogan personally called invited the Kurdish leaders “my Kurdish brothers”. Isn’t that Ankara, by contacting the “Democratic Union”, on the night of February 21, 2015, was moved from Syria on the Turkish part of the only piece of land owned by Turkey outside its borders — the tomb of Suleyman Shah, which played an important role in the formation of the Ottoman Empire, disturbing his bright spirit?
Now the wind blew “nationalism” and “heroism”. All work is done under the guise of “national threat”. Moreover, it is done against two major world powers — USA and Russia. In all of these actions of Erdogan and the ruling justice and development party (AKP) designed for the domestic audience. All the media beforehand admire! Stream news about “operations in Afrin” in order to please the public. In the first position of the headlines about the great Turkey. Well, any dictator needed “adventure” to save power inside the country… To meet this need, in the name sent by the country to certain destruction of the soldiers, sounds the call to war to get even for Assad’s victory, which until recently policy from Ankara were together and having fun. If continued a friendly relationship with Assad and Erdogan, maybe Syria would not be as it is now. Millions of people would become refugees, and killed hundreds of thousands of people.
So why the AKP has not agreed with Damascus? Why Erdogan is involved in the “process of Astana” with Russia and Iran, still calls Assad a “terrorist” and opposed the Treaty with Damascus? The answer to this question lies in the emergence of the third strategy on Syria. Let us first, then analyze these strategies. American is to create a “Pro-American corridor” based on “Democratic Union / people’s protection Units” in the North of Syria. Washington, for these purposes, first announced by the ONS of a “land force” of is (organization banned in Russia), and then sent to the “people’s protection Units” 4900 truck with weapons and is now trying to create a “regular army.”
Erdogan’s strategy is to capture the North of Syria and the creation of the 82nd region of Turkey from Aleppo, located to the East of the city of Hatay. Moreover, from the beginning, from the very first days of the AKP wanted to “capture for 6 days in Damascus and committing a victorious prayer in the Umayyad mosque”. Erdogan secretly sought to establish in Damascus “brotherly regime”. This remained a pipe dream. Although “the conquest of Northern Syria” — is only a dream. But to establish the regime of one-man rule in Turkey Erdogan must keep this dream in effect. The plans of the Americans and RPS coincide with the perspective of fragmentation of Syria. They distinguish the following: the United States wants to establish a foothold for the “people’s protection Units” in Northern Syria, Erdogan to take over Northern Syria. Repeated calls of the Turkish government to Washington to be with Turkey, not the PKK, show “commonality of interests”. Erdogan even in these circumstances still may say, “we want to build a policy in the region along with the United States.”
For those who seeks peace with its neighbors and opposes the fragmentation of the region and stir up the peoples against each other, there is only one option — must first receive a contract between Ankara and Damascus. Here and there is a third force, the regional strategy, the leading role which belongs to Russia, which supports Iran. If you analyze statements of Russian officials, the essence is as follows: for the Syrian crisis, the Kurds have achieved some success and is impossible not to recognize those accomplishments. Need to bring the Kurds under American control by suggestion thoughts about the importance of preserving the territorial integrity of Syria, where the Kurds have achieved success. You need to return the sovereignty of the Syrian army in the North of the country and to convene a Congress of the Syrian national dialogue, which will include the Kurds. This third strategy is the most positive from the point of view of preserving the integrity of Syria.
Moscow in view of the fact that he does not consider the plans of the Erdogan realistic, and because in this area acts against the United States, adheres to the following tactics: strengthen your strategy for as long as you manage to alienate the AKP from the American camp, and to open more space for Turkey in Syria. For Ankara it is beneficial from the point of view of its own strategy when it will be able to benefit from the capabilities of Russian space in this area. The obvious way out of the crisis and, most importantly, to counter the idea of “Pro-American corridor” is an agreement with Damascus! One who does not agree with Damascus will not be able to confront the “terrorist transit.” The path is clear — in the North of Syria the main thing is not the creation of a “zone RPS”, and the protection of the territorial integrity of Syria!