Preparing for even greater isolation, the power of now save almost everyone — especially citizens. But spending on the superproject will grow.
Only people far from the authorities, it seems that the Treasury is full of money. Although in 2018, the Federal budget was reduced from almost textiline surplus, this surplus went into storage. After all, the sanctions can go to a new level, and the oil is quite capable of cheaper. Anyway, who knows what could happen? Saving mode politically obvious to the President — and at the same time ideologically close to technocrats and former liberals from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank. Holding hands, they are stronger than all who on different occasions calls for increased public spending.
That is, increase them, of course, possible, but on the condition that they be cut on some other site, or if people will bring the Treasury more revenue.
Military and enforcement spending after a surge the last seven or eight years are not subject to reductions. True, and a serious growth in the coming years is not provided. Immediately clarify that the one and the only other plausible assumptions. The true figures are unknown as the budget does not disclose the contents of a growing number of their articles. However, for the sake of simplicity let’s also assume that these costs though are huge, but at least does not increase.
Often say that the easiest way to gain money on people’s need to stop is spent in the foreign friends, from Bashar to Maduro. To do this would, of course, good and right. But neither the Syrian war nor the discarding state and allocating of money in the Venezuelan barrel do not play a decisive role in the Russian economy. Over the past few years on these purposes it is estimated gone a dozen billion dollars. Somewhere at the level of the estimate vosmidesyatitonnye highway Tuapse — Sochi, which will be discussed later.
Pay no attention to the screams from the TV about supposedly happened in the past month, the turn of state policy toward social priorities. All activities stated in Putin’s message of 20 February, will cost the Treasury in the current year up to a hundred billion rubles. And government spending to “the development of the automotive industry” is planned in the budget of 2019 in the amount of 205 billion rubles.
Ask: why should we have to spend public (ie theoretically public) money for the “development” industry, which by definition should be self-supporting? Answer.
But first, let me say a word about the said pivot to sociality.
In practice it is not, and can not be. After all, if you decide not to inflate kastrati and not skimp on security forces, the belt-tightening is the only way to get funds for a cherished bossy initiatives. However, in view of the present irritable state of the masses, decided to work on creating the image of a growing national prosperity.
The work is in three directions.
First, there are announcements about a variety of minor privileges and indulgences, the cheapness of which is masked by their multiplicity.
Second, the statistics Ministry told to stop upsetting people. The latest otchetnosti (January—February) for the first time there is no data on the real incomes of the population. In January, they continued to decline as in the previous five years. But now hard at work on a new method of counting, from which much is expected.
And third, actions for withdrawal of money are portrayed as taking care of people. The head of our Finance Anton Siluanov has declared his intention to run finally, the fundraising for individual pension assets (PKI).
It promises annual revenues plus 1.5% of the GDP (more than a half trillion) of long-term money, which will go echolocating magnates “on investments”. And forty years later, when the time comes to calculate the pension, contributors will be explained, certainly not those who now breaks the PKI.
But without a PKI, which is not yet, to citizens in the current year will have out of pocket to increase revenues: 1 trillion rubles due to the growth of VAT; 0.13 trillion due to the increase in excise duties; as well as (presumably) another of 0.36 trillion, spelled out in the budget plan as the increase in “other non-oil revenues”.
These additional money and will be the sources of growth of budget expenses 1.34 trillion Is the increase in planned spending in 2019, compared with actual spending realized in 2018. In 2020 it is planned to raise government spending by nearly a trillion, and 2021-m — a trillion or more.
Received from the citizens funds will be spent on national projects (formally twelve of them, actually — fourteen). A small part of them will have to go back to an ordinary Russian citizen in the form of educational, medical and other human endeavors. But the major costs will be spent on other tasks, too lofty, but from the common man which is greater, that is to say, of course.
Take, for example, “development of trunk infrastructure”. That will bring our citizens another attempt to modernize the BAM? In the last century for this track were taken several times under different rulers, and even different modes. And not to say that it turned out smoothly. Maybe this time things will be different? Not with BAM, with other planned projects?
To feel their taste on the example already mentioned of the Sochi highway over a trillion rubles. Anyone who has been to those places, I will agree that it is needed. Doubts arise when you start to delve into the details.
Why is it so expensive? The construction of one kilometer of this road (12 billion rubles) will cost hundreds of times more expensive than the kilometer four-lane road in the national average (about 50 mln.) Will the competition of contractors? Unconfirmed, but persistently circulating rumors, will be those “Mostotrest” Arkady Rotenberg. If that happens, it will be first convenient, because the construction of the bridge in the Crimea ends, and secondly, will shed light on the high cost of work — a serious firm rude to humiliate low prices.
But, regardless of the future artist, the most interesting is the revised completion date. Initially, it was five or six years. And now already about seventeen or eighteen. If the road even under the plan I propose to pass until 2037-m, this advance removes any questions about the final price, and the real end time. It won’t have much time to change. So the money will flow, and when and what will be the output, guess yourself.
These details say a lot about other superproject, a real gem among them is, of course, the bridge from the mainland to Sakhalin, striking the imagination of his future power, and a deliberate loss. Although the second obviously, he’s still not thrown out from the list.
Some other initiatives more meaningful, but cost—return almost everyone falls into the interval between “bad” and “very bad”.
That’s what our regime does not mind the money drawn from the people’s pockets. And here is the partnership magnates to the state Treasury in an era when our system tries to update the country by its bureaucrats and relatives to his billionaires.