What are the economic catastrophe predicted Russia and why they didn’t come true

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Какие экономические катастрофы предрекали России и почему они не сбылись

Photo: Sergey Savostyanov / TASS

Short-term and medium-term economic predictions for the future of Russia are constantly changing. One thing remains common: the Ministry of economic development draws optimistic picture, and the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank is more cautious. Non-state oracles (both domestic and foreign) prefer the dark tones. .<url>” I analyzed which economic predictions were closest to reality, and which were caused by panic and incorrect assessment of what is happening.

Predictions of the past

First — the facts. According to the information of Rosstat and Ministry of economic development, GDP of Russia in 2015 decreased by 3.7 percent. Inflation reached 12.9 percent. The average price of Russian Urals oil — 51.1 per dollar. The dollar — ruble 60.9. With such indicators, the country ended last year. Comparing facts and forecasts will allow us to make conclusions about the accuracy of certain predictions.

According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia in 2015, the economy had to shrink 3.7-3.9 percent. The forecast is constantly improved: first, the regulator allowed the drawdown to 4.4 percent. The Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said that inflation will reach 12-13%, as per barrel Urals will give about 50-55 dollars. In General, the prediction is very accurate. The Ministry also was very moderate: the Ministry Alexei Ulyukayev warned of the fall of GDP by three percent and inflation at 12.2 percent.

International organizations almost never made a mistake and was fairly conservative. The world Bank was expecting a decline in GDP of 3.8%, the IMF is also 3.8 percent, the rating Agency Standard & poor’s 3.6%. OPEC has allocated a relatively optimistic forecast — minus 3.2 percent at the end of 2015.

 

Какие экономические катастрофы предрекали России и почему они не сбылись

Ruble predicted a sharp collapse of the dollar could rise to 210 rubles
Photo: Maksim Blinov / RIA Novosti

The Gaidar Institute and Ranepa, delivered one of the most pessimistic forecasts, which is not destined to become a reality: they assumed that Russia’s GDP could shrink by 6.8 percent and predicted an acceleration of inflation to 17.1 percent.

Wrong by many experts. Mild recession in four percent, which predicts the Bank of Russia — the impossible dream” — so, for example, said the chief economist of the European Bank for reconstruction and development Sergei Guriev.

Unfulfilled expectations, of course, affected the ruble. The Russian currency had predicted a sharp peak and a complete collapse. Bank of America Merrill Lynch assumed that the dollar can rise to 210 rubles. According to representatives of financial corporations, it is this figure acceptable to the government: with the rapid fall of oil prices to 25 dollars a barrel it will fill the budget without a deficit. But with a deficit of three percent of GDP (planned for 2016) desired rate of 140 rubles to the dollar. Now the ruble strengthened, and intelligence again I think this is a big problem. However, the oil will stay separate, since the ruble’re dependent on her.

The oil is thicker

The catastrophic collapse of world oil prices began in the second half of 2014 and was due to increased production in Iraq, Libya and the United States and falling demand in Asia and economic stagnation in Europe.

In 2015 the glut of oil on the market and falling prices triggered a panic predictions. In September last year, the American Bank Goldman Sachs said that oil prices may in the medium term to drop to $ 20 per barrel. The international energy Agency (IEA) predicted that the collapse of lead prices in 2016 to record production cuts by exporting countries non-OPEC. A decline to 57.7 million barrels per day — the largest in the last 20 years — is predicted in the United States, Russia and the countries of the North sea. The Ministry of Finance in September 2015 was also considered a scenario of falling oil prices to 20 dollars per barrel in the short term.

 

Какие экономические катастрофы предрекали России и почему они не сбылись

Another unfulfilled prediction — oil at 25 dollars per barrel
Photo: Edgard Garrido / Reuters

The President of “LUKOIL” Vagit Alekperov in January 2015 it was admitted that the price of oil in 2015 may fall to $ 25 per barrel.

Look in 2016

Forecasts for 2016 look more relaxed. The heads of the ministries of Finance and economic bloc and the Bank of Russia having careful conversations about the points of growth. At the same time, both domestic and foreign experts say it bluntly: the fall will continue.

The Ministry of economic development says the growth of “plus minus zero”. OPEC expects increase of 0.3 percent. The IMF forecast of minus 1.5 per cent. World Bank — minus 1.2 percent.

The Ministry of Finance and does not exclude the GDP growth in 2016, if you remain “positive factors in the external economic environment”.

Experts of the Gaidar Institute and Ranepa this year expect a continued reduction in real GDP (1.2 percent in the baseline scenario and 0.5 percent for the optimistic).

The experts of the Higher school of Economics in early June diagnosed that Russia continues to slide into recession and seek the bottom. “A full rebound from the bottom in fact did not happen, and the economy continues to go into recession,” — said the expert HSE Mykola Kondrashov explains that if the economic activity will remain at the April level, falling GDP in 2016 will be more than 1.5 percent.

Now to inflation. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted in the spring the growth of prices in Russia in 2016 at the level of 7.9 percent. According to the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, the fall of Russia can be recorded weekly deflation (the consumer price index in negative territory). The Bank of Russia is not yet revising its inflation forecast for the whole of 2016, which remains at the level of five to six percent, said the Chairman of the Central Bank. The target for 2017 remains the same — four percent.

In General we can say that over the past two years, the Russian economy has adapted to difficult external conditions and gradually returning to the path of recovery. Whose is the merit — of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank (in April, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev praised their contribution to the strengthening of financial stability) or, for example, food embargoes (spur the development of domestic agriculture), is an open question. With confidence we can say one thing: the pessimistic predictions that will lead to disaster, tend not to come true. Apparently, such predictions greatly simplify the reality and can account for all possible factors that affect the ever-changing economic processes.

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