The main word of the Western geopolitical discourse in 2017 is the word “chaos”, and he was definitely “Russian” or “Putin”. The Russian President was even accused that he is hardly the “Emperor of chaos”, which embodies the geopolitical techniques, known to Western readers and viewers for the TV series “Game of thrones”.
Time goes by, fashion changes, and this applies in particular to the trend of expert estimates of the risks faced by American hegemony.
Spiegel: over the years of power, Putin has turned from policy to the legend
Keyword 2018 in the Western expert community is likely to be the word “vacuum”, and it again will be described as frightening weapon in the hands of Vladimir Putin. About frightening power vacuum for the past two weeks, said Minister of foreign Affairs of Germany and one of the major analytical centers of the USA Eurasia Group.
The experts of the Eurasia Group is of particular interest due to the nature of the organization. It is the largest analytical structure of the United States, which differs from dozens of similar “think tanks” size and capacity to receive money for their services, and not just spend all the grants of different political groups, businessmen and NGOs.
Among the clients of the company — the largest U.S. banks, multinational corporations and the US government. This does not mean that the forecasts, for which they pay, always come true, but listen to them very influential players.
According to the American experts, we have six years of living in the so-called world G-o, working on fundamentally different rules than the old world, which by and large was ruled by the “big seven”, the group of G7.
In the world “G-zero” world has replaced the G7 in 2011, the United States is “too weak” to hold the role of world hegemon, and the other powers are too busy with internal problems to claim the role of America.
Among the main risks that the Eurasia Group sees in 2018, there is a risk that the geopolitical vacuum created by the weakening of the United States, still will be filled, and this perspective is viewed as unambiguously negative for Washington. The main contender in this respect is called China, but as the “author” of specific problems for the United States is mentioned is Russia.
The forecast for 2018 indicated that Vladimir Putin will squeeze the US out of Syria to create a cyber threat to us security and even thrown at the American information field set for incriminating evidence aimed at discrediting the most influential representatives of the Republican party that prevented the Trump to establish relations with Russia. If we reduce all the risks of the 2018 one formula we get the following: “the vacuum is filled with problems.”
Foreign Minister of Germany, Sigmar Gabriel, sees similar trends, but gives them a slightly different take and makes different conclusions.
In an interview with Spiegel, Gabrielle noted that the United States is gradually losing ground on the world stage, and thus created a political vacuum immediately filled by China and Russia.
One of the most influential German politicians indicates that China fills it in world trade, and Russia spur of the moment — “power vacuum”, especially in the development of the situation in Syria.
This description resonates with reality the way it is presented by the Chinese sources, in particular the position of the head of state publication “global times” Hu Sizzina, who believes that the US can not “forgive” China’s economic growth and Russia — its military power.
To sum up the evaluation of Sigmar and garbiela of the Eurasia Group, it turns out that the geopolitical vacuum is filled by Russia and China, and this tandem is found for the West unpleasant synergy, because it has both economic and military power, which could successfully project in key regions of the world.
Sigmar Gabriel, in a sense, repeated the theses of the Minister of trade of France, Le Mayor, who recently called for the revision of relations with the US and focus on the trade “with Beijing through Moscow.”
The head of the German foreign Ministry sees the same weakness of the US and declares: “the Confidence with which we looked at the USA as the defenders, despite the case differences, is now beginning to crumble”. Among the reasons for the transatlantic differences mentioned policy towards Russia and the so-called Iranian dossier.
However, Gabriel does not offer “turn to the East”, and recommends to begin to raise the status of the European Union. “Moscow, Beijing and Washington have one thing in common: they do not value the European Union. They despise him,” said he.
Funny turns: diplomatic isolation constantly predicted Moscow, and the inferiority complex somehow formed the chief German diplomat, who sadly stated that the EU no one wants to be considered. However, as can count on the respect of the chief vassal of the United States after the weakening of the US?
The big plan for the containment of Russia and China didn’t work, despite all American efforts. A well-known strategy involves the rupture of trade and economic relations between Russia and the EU because of the Ukrainian conflict, whereby it is possible to ensure the actual elimination of the main logistic artery, necessary for the implementation of the Chinese project “One belt and one road”.
For China, this American plan was also painful blows: the military and territorial conflicts with us allies in Southeast Asia, support of Uighur separatism, the so-called trade war and revolution of the umbrellas in Hong Kong.
And burning from terrorism and color revolutions in Central Asia and Iran had to ensure that the number of additional internal and external problems that Russia and China had no opportunities to use the period of American weakness.The plan has failed.
It finally became clear to everyone after USA lost in Syria what almost plain text said the German Minister of foreign Affairs.
From the geopolitical chaos and leadership vacuum is suddenly formed a picture of the indomitable and efficient Russian forces, which all geopolitical players want to attract to their side.
Ian Bremer, the head of Eurasia Group, predicts for 2018 geopolitical crisis, which by its destructive effects “like with the financial crisis of 2008.”
This prediction could be justified. And then a geopolitical vacuum ceases to be a window of opportunity for the United States and will finally turn into a noose, which severely stifles any geopolitical ambitions of Washington.
In 2015, speaking at the UN, Vladimir Putin asked the collective West a rhetorical question: “do You realize now what you’ve done?” Judging by the statements of American experts and European politicians, they do not understand, but what is happening with the world, who recently was so cozy and comfortable, they do not like.
Americans see the decision to try to tighten the screws a last effort, despite the risks. The French government is trying in advance to defect to the winning side and relies on “common trade space” from Paris to Beijing via Moscow.
In terms of geopolitical power vacuum of the German political elite is desperately looking for a long lost self-respect and sovereignty remains.
It is in this context become clear to all the scandalous actions of Berlin: the repatriation of gold reserves from the United States, the creation of a “European army” as controlled by the German equivalent of NATO and even the fight against extraterritorial U.S. sanctions.
The collective West is no more, and no hope of deterring those global changes that will become inevitable as soon as China and Russia will fill the geopolitical vacuum created by the decline of the USA.
The starting year will be the year of mass Exodus of rats from the American ship. Rats don’t just run, and do it with a twinkle, and with a strong sense of their own moral righteousness. Russia from this process will benefit.