Two years oil campaign…

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Два года нефтяного похода…

… for leadership in the global market of hydrocarbons observed in the summer of 2016. The outcome of the campaign is not defined – however obvious its initiator, the method of attaining goals and unexpected results in the process of the campaign.

The way Saudi oil prosperity in the future lies through the cheap barrel and of the financial strangulation of shale competitors in the present. The Kingdom has huge reserves of “black gold” (known and proven about 270 billion barrels) and reserves (730 billion $ by the summer of 2014). The cost of production in the Arabian Peninsula is one of minimum in the world, the color revolutions Riyadh did not threaten the regional political authority helped to inspire the March of the satellites of the Persian Gulf. UAE and Kuwait have recovered more than 3 million barrels per day, Qatar – about 2 million

Summarily crowned strategists oil war control 19-20 million barrels of daily production, i.e. about 22% of the global total. It is a solid instrument of global influence.

While the popular stereotype of the “Saudi Arabia with Arab partners flooded the market with cheap oil” is only true in part. Monarchy support the extraction of liquid hydrocarbons at the maximum level for two decades. Initiative of the Kingdom were daily drawn from their own bowels:

10.1 million barrels in 2010.
10.3 million barrels in 2011.
10.6 million in 2012.
11.1 million in 2013.
10.8 million in 2014.
10.9 million in 2015.

Additional volumes from the SA & Co on the world market has not appeared and in 2016. Over the same five-year period, oil production in the U.S. increased from 7.8 to 11.6 million barrels. Overseas shale industry came in first place in the world. Well ordering the high cost of valuable resource and technological leadership of the United States. U.S. growth has caused increasing concerns of the elite (Royal family) of Saudi Arabia. Oil provides 85% of budget revenues in Riyadh. Diversification and liberalization of the Saudi economy are at the stage of careful hints. Violent conflict is the leader of OPEC over “shale upstart” became inevitable.

In the summer of 2014 the price tag of the reference grade Brent went into a dive due to the dumping of SA & Co – because of the regularly updated discounts and preferential treatment for buyers from Asia, America and Europe. The game began to decrease as it is. 112 $/bbl. in June to December 2014 changed to 57 $/bbl. The following year, reeling from 67 to 37 $. In January 2016 marked the minimum value of the cost of a barrel of Brent in 2004 – 28.8 $. American “slate” seemed defeated and looked unprofitable.

Two years of oil war led to the dramatic reduction of drilling rigs operating in the United States – from 1.610 to 352. The output from a record 11.6 million barrels a day dropped to 8.4 million the Industry continues to experience serious funding problems, a number of companies went bankrupt, much cheaper rental of equipment and the entire range of oil services – from exploration to storage utilization. American “slate” much bent, but survived. In the global market of hydrocarbons were less stable players.

A number of companies from African and Latin American countries (Ecuador, Venezuela, Nigeria, Angola, etc.) when the decline in oil prices lower to $35/bar officially announced about the impossibility of economic activity. The method of dumping of trial and emotional errors have been found the equilibrium value of the hydrocarbon resource. It is $50/bbl. Brent and April 2016 stable. This price allows us kancevica at least to survive and how high to count on a rematch.

From April 2016 the number of operated drilling rigs in the US increased from 352 to 414 units. Noted a modest production growth – 8.4 to 8.6 million barrels a day. Work concentrated on three major fields – the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian. Where there is the “drill cycle”, the average shale well dries up for 2-3 years. The 10 largest American companies for the extraction of shale oil has managed to achieve agreements with the banks for further lending of billions of dollars of volume. Over the past six months three of their index (investment, drilling and production) have demonstrated positive dynamics.

American slate is more alive than dead. However, its activity is concentrated in three local ghetto. The unique US position in the global financial system has allowed the oil companies to continue production at a loss and accumulate debt until better times. It is possible that a bright future is not far off.

The main damage from the Saudi-American netcomplete suffered neutral market participants themselves are the aggressors.
On the unprofitable side of the discarded bituminoznye Sands of Canada and Venezuela. Technology “bitumen” oil just started to be developed, they are complex and very costly. The mines themselves are located outside the boundaries of “unique” countries with equally unique financial system. People willing to lend bituminous oil workers of Venezuela and Canada why-it did not find…

Several times reduced the attractiveness of the development wells on sea and ocean shelves. Again, because of high expenditures on exploration and exploitation of such deposits. And the cost of renting drilling platforms and specialized equipment for underwater work somehow, not decreased, in contrast to discount shale for the needs of the United States. Of the oil-producing States worst-affected Nigeria, Angola and Brazil.

Multinational giants ExxonMobil, BP, Royal Dutch Shell and others have lost much more than “optimized” their American colleagues-kanavice. Corporations engaged in traditional oil production, they turn out dozens of projects and accumulate losses. “ExxonMobil” at the end of 2014, has lost 32 billion $, that is, 10% of all assets.
“British Petroleum” for the year 2015 has lost 5.1 billion dollars, the company’s capitalization has fallen to $ 120 billion ($284 billion in 2011!).
Royal Dutch Shell has managed to remain in positive territory at 1.9 billion dollars on revenue of 265 billion $ and drop in capital cost by 25%!
Against this background, lending to the shale 10 U.S. companies in the amount of 1.1 billion $ at all look like chicken shit. The total volume of oil produced in the world will inevitably begin to decline, the process will be mitigated the enormous accumulation of commercial stocks. They amount to 3 billion barrels, enough humanity for… one month.

For two years the oil war Saudi Arabia has lost a third of foreign exchange reserves, while maintaining a rigid binding of national currency to the dollar and limiting reasoning about the reforms. The Kingdom got involved in a real Yemeni war and indirectly involved in the Syrian war. Where far from the victories, whether by personal participation or hand puppets. Conflict with lancelike United States led to a hard-hints of American politicians to break the veils with Saudi involvement in the terrorist attacks of 11.09.2001. A significant part of the Saudi reserves and assets of the controlled not Riyadh, and the fed.

Yemen the war has led to a humiliating defeat Saudi convoys on their own territory and proud loneliness on the battlefield. Dozens of allies left the adventurous invaders, the last of the UAE in July 2016. It remains to declare the oil campaign for global leadership successfully completed and to withdraw its troops from a foreign country (as well as discounts from commercial practice).
Not yet completed a 500 billion precious dollars, so painstakingly accumulated over decades of oil prosperity. A return to the prewar status quo often becomes a cherished goal Woe strategy.

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