Almost lightning victory of Damascus in southwest Syria gives hope for a speedy solution to the problem most of the opposition governorates of the country — of Idlib. Here for a long time do not know the official authorities of the government, and in General no power in most of the settlements are not permanently installed.
According to various reports, the number of terrorist and opposition groups here is more than a hundred, some of them do consist of a couple of dozen armed thugs. They are constantly fighting among themselves, alternately capturing towns and villages.
However, each of them in their loud statements repeatedly announced its aim “the liberation of all Syria” from the “tyranny” of Bashar al-Assad. Lately verbiage with this done, rather, it is less spread media. And blame the successes of Assad, who together with Russia and Iran could practically everywhere to regain power, however, while and not being able to deal with the situation in the Kurdish regions.
Now the Syrian President is targeting Idlib. Of course, in this dangerous province, he is not himself, and in the company of many Iranian soldiers and, of course, with the support of Russian aircraft. In General, for the assault will be collected a large force. But recently there was hope that a major war can be avoided.
The fact is that a large number of different groups in Idlib in some way connected with Turkey. It started yesterday in Ankara in 2011 expressed support for the opposition, and when the war began, helped the rebels. At first it was expressed in the supply of food, and then came the weapons. When in the North and North-West of Aleppo strengthened the Kurds, Turks, and even sent troops to Syria. And so began a full-fledged military Alliance between Ankara and some opposition groups in Aleppo and Idlib.
On the one hand, that’s too bad, because the Turkish presence will greatly complicate the future operation to sweep the province, but on the other, Turkey is a civilized state with which you can engage in dialogue on issues of bloodless restoration of the power of Damascus in the region. And if to consider developing in a positive way Russian-Turkish relations, then hope for the triumph of diplomacy is significantly increasing. Negotiations between Moscow and Ankara has already begun. As reported to the Russian-Turkish-French-German summit, scheduled for September seventh, the active fighting in Idlib will not.
This month Turkey at a certain part of Russia try to resolve the situation in the governorate. While it is not clear how this will happen, but it seems that Ankara has already started this process. For example, it is reported that the Turks invited the representatives of the jabhat an-Nusra to dissolve the organization. Syrians in its composition, is entitled to little or no consequences to the side of the non-terrorist organizations forming the “national liberation front” — the so-called Turkish project for the unification of rebel groups in Idlib. Foreigners should leave Syria and go to the country of origin. In addition taking some more steps with the aim of establishing a dialogue between the “National front” and Damascus.
But, it seems that while the effort of Turkey is not enough, because dzhebhat an-Nusra refused to dissolve itself and decided to continue fighting both against Assad and against the opposition. The rebels, formally not related to the terrorists, are still quite militant. Various associated with both Nusra and opposition sources spread information that the inevitable battle with the Russians, and the Turks will not be able to save coming from death. Very interesting is the fact that one of the commentators for the upcoming government operations in Idlib was Hussam Salama. Man, that is to say, outstanding. In September last year, when militants suddenly attacked the positions of our military police, it was announced that instant response. The Russian VKS numerous attacks on the positions of militants in different areas of Syria. In the end, it was announced that the grouping dzhebhat an-Nusra are actually beheaded. Hussam Salama mentioned among the eliminated terrorist leaders. Then he really was in this organization, but, as it turned out, “retaliation” absolutely not hurt him. However, after it Hussam Salama moved to another job in the same “national liberation front”, and is now engaged in more or less legal activities.
And here he talks about the situation of Idlib. According to him, it is very good that Russia took a small break. During this time, the militants will be able to take a break and prepare for the coming war. Nevertheless, he is confident that the agreement on de-escalation will soon be violated by Russia because of a surprise attack during periods of truce — part of its tactics in the fight against the Syrian opposition. But in Idlib in Russian will not work, as the militants prepared and they have a “comprehensive plan” for dealing with Assad and his main ally. While Turkey and its attempts to stabilize the region Hussam Salama did not say if Ankara did not have any influence on the processes inside Idlib.
Turkish expert Ender Imrek believes that the risks of clashes in Idlib present, but neither Russia nor Turkey are interested in them. Ankara recently invested a lot of money in various projects in the province. Of course, the fighting will make any of these accomplishments are meaningless. In addition, the probability that Ankara would significantly increase its contingent in the case of a full-fledged attack of the Syrian Arab army, is very small, but it actually says that the opposition in Idlib to fight against Assad, Russia and Iran. Sooner or later it will lead to a complete seizure of the province of Damascus, but such a scenario would negate all the efforts of Ankara to strengthen its influence in Western Syria.
Our source in the military leadership of the Russian Federation said that, despite the possibility of a diplomatic solution, a plan for military action still worked. Including a lot of effort is paid to linkages with loyal to Assad groups in Idlib. There are such, but competitors pursue them, and in some cases even killed. At the moment, the Syrian government considers the attack a priority plan.