Trump wants to disrupt gas supplies from Russia to Europe

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Трамп хочет сорвать поставки газа из России в Европу

“The US administration fully supports the idea of the project “southern gas corridor”, — the telegram is signed by Donald trump, was read on Wednesday, may 31, the participants held in Baku International exhibition and conference “Oil and gas of the Caspian-2017”. 400 delegates from 289 companies from 30 countries who arrived in the capital of Azerbaijan to participate in this forum have been encouraged by this support, the 45th President of the United States. The euphoria of the forum participants, among whom were official representatives of the European Union, you can understand Washington’s support for the construction of main gas pipeline from Azerbaijan to Europe bypassing Russia greatly increases the chances of success of the project.

It is noteworthy that the telegram trump was presented in Baku on the next day after Deputy foreign Minister Alexei Meshkov expressed concern about the attempt by certain European Union countries to block the implementation of the Russian project “Northern stream-2” and “Turkish stream”. “We can not disturb the attempts of some EU institutions to derail energy projects in Europe with Russian participation, it is first and foremost about the project “Nord stream-2”, — said the Russian diplomat. — The European Commission is also no clarity in respect of the second string of the gas pipeline “Turkish stream”. We expect from Brussels concrete guarantees for the implementation of this project, not to repeat the sad experience of the “South stream”.

However, apparently, Brussels is in no hurry to give the green light for the implementation of the above two Russian pipeline projects. This position of the EU becomes clear when we perform the video message of the official representative of the EU to the participants of the oil and gas forum in Baku. “We reaffirm the EU’s commitment to the project “southern gas corridor”, in which Azerbaijan plays a key role, — said the Vice-President of the European Commission Maros Sefcovic. — This project will provide geopolitical balance and stability in Europe. Azerbaijan is an important partner for Europe in this issue, and we are confident that Azerbaijan’s gas will be delivered to Europe in 2020 in the framework of this project.”

We will remind that the project “southern gas corridor” (SGC) provides for the transportation of 10 billion cubic meters of Azeri gas from the Caspian region via Georgia and Turkey to Europe. At the initial stage as the main resource for the pipeline will be used gas to be produced within the second phase of development of gas condensate field “Shah Deniz”. Further the project can be connected and the Central Asian republics, particularly Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. In the second stage of the natural gas will be transported to European markets by expanding the South Caucasus pipeline and constructing the TRANS-Anatolian (TANAP) and TRANS Adriatic (TAP) pipelines.

According to Natural Gas Europe, the cost of the SGC is about $ 40 billion, including nine billion dollars on the TRANS-Anadolu pipeline project, six billion — the TRANS Adriatic pipeline project (TAP), 23.8 billion for the second stage of development of “Shah Deniz” and the expansion of the South Caucasus gas pipeline.

Thus, the position of Washington and Brussels on the issue of the “southern gas corridor” are the same: to try through the implementation of this costly project to undermine the position of Gazprom as the primary supplier of the fuel for the old continent. “Azerbaijan is an important partner of the US”, is a line of congratulations to the Donald trump address his colleagues Ilham Aliyev on the occasion of the Republic Day of Azerbaijan was celebrated on may 28. According to political scientist Elkhan Shahinoglu, the new US administration “is considering Azerbaijan as an important guarantor of European energy security”.

The EU leadership also relies on Azerbaijan as a key country for the transit of the huge flows of natural gas from Central Asia and the Caspian to Europe. However, here in Brussels there is reason to think. The fact that in the first stage, all the Azerbaijani gas and the second gas from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan (if at all it comes to the second stage) will be delivered to Europe through Turkish territory. And this factor poses a risk for the European countries. The fact that the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly proven that he is able to skillfully use the Ankara trump card to blackmail Europe.

For example, Erdogan still does not allow deputies of the German Bundestag to the military base of NATO air forces in Incirlik, demanding from Berlin to advance him to present a preliminary list of German MPs, which Ankara will be tested for loyalty and lack of ties to terrorists. In other words, Erdogan is considering the base of “Incirlik” as a political lever of pressure on Angela Merkel. In this regard, experts wonder: where is the guarantee that after the start of operation “southern gas corridor” Erdogan also does not use this transport artery to pressure on the European Union. In particular, for the resumption of negotiations on Turkey’s accession to the EU.

The impression that Washington and Brussels in spite of the unpredictability of the foreign policy of Erdogan I trust him more than Vladimir Putin. “If only not Russia, just to undermine the influence of Russia” — the motto of the strong anti-Russian lobby in the ocean and in Brussels. Apparently, Erdogan encourages its NATO partners to conduct such a Pro-Turkish-Azeri and anti-Russian policy in the oil and gas projects.

Although Turkey is a member of the Astana peace process on the Syrian settlement, it is, of course, cannot be regarded as an ally of Russia in the region. First, Ankara is continuing transport blockade of the Crimea, giving to understand that it will never recognize the annexation of Crimea by Russia. Second, it advocates the overthrow of the regime in Damascus and unlike Russia fully supports a missile attack trump “Tomahawks” on military targets of the Assad government. Thirdly, Ankara has not abandoned plans to gradually push Russia out of South Caucasus and Central Asia and strengthening in these regions, the position of Turkey itself.

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