To live has become too expensive option for the Russians

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Жить — стало слишком дорогой опцией для россиян

I’m afraid to read the news, especially banking. There is a feeling that will soon explode and not enough money to fill the banking hole. Bankopad that we have seen in recent times, can not affect the state of the economy and the ruble.

The standard of living is falling, the economy creaks, burst the banks, but we cheerfully go to the presidential election. Why would good people spend money on elections, so if everything is clear? To feed the spin doctors, who are desperate to fight for 70 % turnout? Many there still will not go, even with the intrigue, though without. People of stern reality to think, not in the election to play. I will not go, do not want, is not interesting, there is intrigue, and a piece of bread to earn. I like Medvedev ducks poop will not leave, the house can not be built.

If you walk around Moscow or other large Russian city, the impression of well-being. Stores, showcases, restaurants, cars and every IPhone. But two steps to the side and poverty. There is not that minimum wage, but the work in most regions. Education and medicine have become too expensive option for the Russians, and to not die every pull.

Instead direct the money to education and medicine, billions in the Bank we patched the holes, to fatten the defense industry and the repressive apparatus, introduce new excise duties, and levies from citizens. We are not a growth economy and the survival economy with a strict control and if that posadočkoj.

The last days I listened to interview dozens of economists and experts, most agree that the Central Bank have not control of the situation. At first, when I started Stripping the bad banks and bad debt us fed talks about the fact that there is a recovery of the banking system. But now, when the fall of major banks and krumnack, which nobody had nothing bad to think, I honestly stiffened and decided to withdraw their funds from a pretty reliable until the Bank and get into a green friend. Account store no more than several hundred thousand rubles for the payment of taxes and immediate needs. Of course not Patriotic to go under green, but the patriotism of bread will not smear, and holes in your own pockets will not be sewn up, and on the state and the Agency for Deposit insurance for me personally in the current situation there is no hope. ASV is not a bottomless pit, and there with such a load and the Central Bank policy can be a problem.

The declared inflation of 4% is a myth and the manipulation of figures, it will tell you any grandmother, who goes to the store. Many retirees write down prices and compare them to the dynamics. When you get to the cashier, you can often hear the price went up again and retired to the penny, puts the number of growth.

Pulling up the minimum wage to the living wage last week at 21% ( from 7800 to 9489 RUB from 1 January 2018) this is the true inflation this year.

In October, I want to repeat last year’s experiment and to do an interview with her mother retired, she’d shared her thoughts, told how her life has changed over the past year and what we expect. I did not expect such a reaction media in the post (“Oh, Putin, in the dog-live!”), when I had to take the rap for my mom in dozens of media outlets.

But to our Russian ruble sheep…. The remarkable stability of the ruble is the calm before the storm. Better wood to go for penny, and it will collapse by dozens of percent. We all it already passed. The main question is when will collapse and how many have reserves? Everyone understands that to Mar should be as stable background, but then the miracles begin. Will you hold it till March? Don’t know….. You can not keep.

For many of our fellow citizens the stability of the economy linked to the stability of the ruble, but it is those who have the income to not only live from paycheck to paycheck, but to do or whether at least some purchase more expensive kettle and cowards.

But if the banking hole is much more than tells us, the Central Bank, and if you explode before? Sure stanochek already included, though not at full capacity.

Retail and retail chain is particularly sensitive to jumps of the ruble. Let’s be honest, domestic products still directly or indirectly tied to the rate of $. For retail better gradual weakening of the Russian rouble with quarterly or semiannual price adjustment than a one-off collapse when suppliers lay additional insurance percentage on the risk of further collapse and the price tag on the shelf grows significantly. From retail and distribution, there is no such margin in the price of goods to compensate for such surges as before. It will tell you Baer any retail mesh.

Consumption is declining, the Russians have learned to save and that’s a fact. This is the way many employees of the tourism industry of the Crimea, which according to various estimates, tightened the straps on some holes (20-30%). Vacationers Russians for three years qualitatively changed the structure of local public catering. Many restaurateurs were forced to close their restaurants and taverns, and reformat them in the budget table where you can dine for 300-350 rubles.

I don’t know what the contours of the future are looking in the Kremlin, but in my opinion we need not look for contours and loosen the nuts to reduce the tax burden for small and medium business, reduce bureaucracy and number of people in uniform.

But back to the banks. Let me give a personal example. Weekly I send my Bank offers credit programs for business development. I certainly have ideas for growing my business need investment of about 25-30 million rubles, but the proposed level of % on loans and possible business margins do not allow me to use the Bank instrument. High risk of burn. Well, here’s how to take out loans at 25-30% per annum? That, drug or weapon trade offer? For me the maximum allowable level is 5-7% per year. So in such a market our reality all the easier in the bucks and wait.

All the bureaucratic chatter on various forums is far from life. Small business got out from basements and garages again creeps back in, in order to reduce your Costa. Walk through any garage cooperative. There you will find a lot of things— the production of furniture, iron doors, repairing machines, garment manufacturing and even the repair of complex electronics. People survive and save as I can, and I can’t blame them. The word self-employment has become synonymous with self-sufficiency. I’m not judging that these garage entrepreneurs evade taxes. They feed themselves and their families without asking for handouts from the state.

What kind of digital economy we are talking about, if we can’t build the ordinary? The state is focused on monopoly, which bring the main income to the budget. And look at the structure of the participants and winners of the bidding state-owned companies. A lot of you out there will see your small business? You try to jump on 44-th Federal law, there is only one documentation will stumble and get hurt, break can only large companies

In the beginning of the year I visited Istanbul and was very surprised by the lack of Chinese goods, all produced in Turkey. Despite the rigid structure in Turkey, small businesses given the green light. We, great Russia, to Turkey with its level of development light and textile industry, as the moon. We discourage people’s desire to do business, as a result there is a reduction in the number of IPS and LLC, it will tell you all recorder..

All that bad. But the rescue of drowning the handiwork of drowning. And I think, therefore, transferred all of their savings in American friend and trying to minimize his business activity, to avoid losing at least what is.

Is there a way out of this situation? In the present circumstances I don’t see it. Looking for new ideas for business, but how can we talk about the projects with 3-5 years horizon in our environment?

Survival and minimum expectations on the state. Some of my friends say — I WANT to go. I don’t quite agree with them. Where? What is there to do? Whether you’re on the celebration of life? In this case, I see no real desire to bring down and extremely negative attitude of people. People see no future and prospects, all very sad and Patriotic. The contours of the future easy to look for, when you go to the official Mercedes, a good salary and full social security your whole family of parasites. In this situation the contours you can search forever, and ordinary people need to survive. When arguing what should be the new Government after Putin’s re-election, my answer is the easiest encouraging the market and the citizens of the Russian Federation.

The most promising business in the coming years, this repair of boots, shoes and clothing. The people passed in strict austerity, not buying new, and patch the old holes.

I’m not an economist, I am an ordinary citizen of the Russian Federation, but the level of pessimism I have is only growing. I have long ceased to believe the numbers and official statistics, I just see what’s happening outside the window and how much food is in the stores. It is necessary to survive.

Alexander Mountain

 

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