Three chiefs


Три вождя

The main people of the world — trump, Putin and XI Jinping — now in one place. Although they like each other, and each is special for their country, one in the Trinity superfluous.

When we were writing this column, it was not clear, will there be negotiations of Vladimir Putin with Donald trump at the APEC summit, and if so, how serious. Belogolovskii said meetings, they say, there is no schedule, the Kremlin — he did not lose hope.

However, the agenda of this hypothetical meeting, in any case known: North Korean atomic bomb, war in Donbass, the partition of Syria and relations with Iran.

Although the victory trump noted a year ago, almost as a national holiday, his position now is not to offer Putin anything close to major concessions on at least one of these sites. Therefore, any meaningful discussion is possible only in one case: if you don’t have trump, and Putin has prepared some bonuses, it is tempting for the opposing side. Such a long time already was not, and wouldn’t like to guess whether they are available now.

Interesting not even, with someone who will talk on the sidelines of the summit, that is in passing and is unlikely to seriously. Much more entertaining more. The three most influential ruler of the planet — XI Chairman and President of the trump as the leaders of the superpowers, but Putin as the head of the war machine with the second, if not the first in the world nuclear potential, — summarized the fate and schedule social events at the meeting of APEC in Vietnam, certainly not take advantage of this opportunity to make great triple Alliance to lead mankind.

Although never in the history between the leaders of these three countries was not so much common ground.

XI Jinping, who broke or at least undermined the system of regular change of the top Chinese leaders and led to the horror of local nomenclature, and their war with the corrupt, is by Chinese standards an autocrat. That’s what makes him probably the most powerful man on Earth. He is younger than both of his colleagues and, judging by the fact that a few days ago put the country objectives until 2035, was ready to personally monitor their progress many more years as a formal or informal leader.

Autocrat (in the us, of course, coordinates) can be considered trump. With the governing class in his own country had big problems, it it it is believed, wants to solve it himself and could theoretically rely only on the common people. But care trump from office at the latest seven years later, is inevitable, and quite likely three. And provide him the grassroots support is clearly insufficient to potential autocratic tendencies of the current President of the United States developed at least at the level of John Kennedy, not to mention Franklin Roosevelt.

The easiest would seem Putin. He ruled longer, and there are no boundaries to this rule is not intended, and in addition in imitation of the Chinese counterpart took up the fight against corruption, by entering into torpor wide circles of the authorities. The problem is that, in addition to the obedience of subjects, and the already mentioned nuclear missiles, other trumps him there.

About it, but later. Complete compare the biographies and views.

Even a few years before coming to power, Putin and trump were not even aware of what tops you are waiting for them. And the Russians with the Americans also found out who will lead them, literally at the last moment. It unites both.

But over the shoulders of comrade XI was already thirty years old nomenklatura career when in 2012 he became the first person. However, he knows about the world firsthand. As the son of a disgraced dignitary, the fifteen-year teenager, he was exiled “for re-education in the village.” “Almost seven years living at the bottom: his home was a cave, a thin blanket on bricks was his bed, a bucket was his toilet… He had to endure dealing with fleas, the hard physical labor and constant loneliness…” — tells a heartfelt book.

Knowledge of the national life (albeit outdated, even with the amendments to the local context), the desire to rule alone and mistrust of governing the tops of their countries, turning into the desire to disperse them, — enough to have three custom leader reached out to each other?

Putin is pretty trump. This is not to hide. Judging by the extremely frequent meetings with President XI (last was just now, da Nang), he, at least, is sparing no effort to make friends with him.

Is there any impact? It is a peculiar. Trump from time to time from afar, says that relations with Russia could deteriorate so quickly, but obviously beware of meetings with its Chairman. XI Jinping, Putin takes easily, but does nothing and almost never stands up for him.

But between the tramp and si, at least outwardly, full of grandeur. First si deals lush a visit to Trump, hardly came into office, and trump even more richly attended in Beijing. What sort of “conversations on the sidelines of the summits”? Trump solemnly taking in the Beijing forbidden city. Knowing his aesthetic tastes, you can guess how happy he was to imagine himself Emperor. And, of course, higher hug at Beijing’s great hall, cheering crowd, salute, marching in beauty the form, crashing orchestras.

In addition to leaders, there are still countries with interests, interdependencies, and other disputes.

The economic power of the US and China in absolute isolation from all others. And in the military future in China, inferior to now Russia’s only missile and nuclear power will also become if not the first, then second.

China is the largest exporter of goods in the United States and the third (after Canada and Mexico) the purchaser of American goods. The volume of trade between the two powers (export + import) has passed through half a trillion dollars. However, the Chinese sell Americans a lot more than they buy, and trump is not in Beijing, but in Washington, of course — promised to rein them. But the current ending their negotiations, the parties boast some incredible value agreements on cooperation in new industries. If it’s not a bluff, the balance of trade in goods and services will level off.

Another bilateral U.S.-China issue — how to deal with North Korea is almost entirely dependent upon trade with China. If the Chinese see fit in exchange for the States technological benefits to make the Americans a present, it is not so difficult to put the Kingdom of the Kim dynasty to a position close to hopeless.

All I say today is not the case, but only opportunities. But the sheer magnitude of the mutual dependence of the two countries-giants such opportunities. And so I take advantage of them or not, will quickly become visible.

And now back to Putin. Nothing prevents us to assume that si and trump belong to him personally, not worse, and may even be better than each other. But to become a member of the triumvirate, he has something to contribute. What?

The size of the Russian economy by 5-10 times (depending on the method of calculation) less than Chinese or American. Russian-American trade is important, if not critical, for Russia, but for the us, does not matter. The converging interests of Russia and the United States is evident only on the fronts of Syria and Donbass. But today’s America is absolutely unwilling to do in these areas presents, which is why Putin was supposed to get from trump. Some discharge, and it is hardly serious, is possible only if he will give, at least secretly.

As to China, it is the largest recipient of Russian exports (mainly oil) and the first supplier of goods to Russia. But the dependence we have a purely one-sided. The total volume of trade between the two countries last year totaled $70 billion Is only 2% of Chinese trade. Technological potential of Russia is outdated and continues to age. His temptation is small. The Chinese are already on the cheap borrowed all he could. The transport route for their goods since they lay to the South of Russia, through the Caucasus — clearly doubting the reliability of Moscow. Remains of Chinese tourism. Yes, he’s thriving. But it is not to build any equal partnership and strategic cooperation.

Moscow’s influence in the resolution or prohibiting the North Korea issue is also secondary. Unlike colleagues, XI, Putin has no leverage to force Kim to act differently. And to close the Russian nuclear shield from colleagues trump, sacrificing himself, absolutely not his style.

Russian policy in recent years were built on two wrong settings. The gap with the US can be beat, there appear to be a suitable President. And that this gap, if it still will be irreversible, will be able to compensate, concluding a fraternal Alliance with China.

But it turned out that the world is different. The mutual attraction of Moscow and Washington leaders brings together Russia with the States, and even more parts. And XI even in the vassal takes. In vain were afraid. Maybe duumvirate trump and si will be a dud, but that triumvirate will not be accurate.


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