Russian economy in 2019 will grow more slowly than expected and half will lag behind the world in terms of growth. This forecast gives the world Bank in January report about the prospects for the global economy.
By 2018 the growth of the Russian GDP was about 1.6% – 0.1 percentage points more than expected.
However, in the coming year the economy will slow to 1.5%, 0.3 PP less than the previous forecast and almost twice lower than the global average, which the world Bank estimates 2.9%.
Behind the group of developing countries will nearly triple their growth the Bank forecasts at 4.2%).
Leaders by the speed of economic growth will remain the States of South Asia: their aggregate GDP in 2019, will add 7.1%, and compared with the previous year growth accelerated by 0.2 percentage points
Prospects for the global economy as a whole become “gloomier”, says the report of the Bank: the volume of international trade are reduced, saved increased trade tensions, and some large emerging market economies have experienced a serious pressure from the financial markets.
In the first place would have an impact on countries dependent on exports of raw materials, according to the world Bank: growth of GDP at the end of last year did not live up to expectations of 0.8% and in 2019 will be 0.7 PP lower than projected in October.
Impact of policy tightening by global Central banks. “The sharp rise in borrowing costs could adversely affect the value of capital inflows and lead to a slowdown in economic growth in many emerging economies and developing countries”, says the WB.
A third of a country’s GDP growth rate per capita “will be insufficient to reduce the backlog in the income level of the developed countries”, added the Bank.
In Russia the situation is aggravated by weak progress in diversifying the economy, said the world Bank previously over the last 4 years the site of the Russian Federation in global production chains has not changed. 59% of exports are hydrocarbons, 10% – on metals and only 7.6% refers to products of high added value – machinery and equipment.
External factors, as noted in the Bank, also “remain largely adverse”: the possible extension of sanctions and geopolitical tensions are broadcast in high uncertainty, which pushes domestic demand.