The war of all against all: the United States and Russia will make Turkey a “weak link”

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Война всех против всех: США и Россия сделают Турцию "слабым звеном"

Weakening and close to defeat ISIS (an organization banned in Russia) expected did not bring peace to Syria. Differences between external actors, for which there are global and regional powers (Russia, USA, Turkey, middle East monarchies, Iran), only amplified. This is not surprising, given that the common enemy now is not — it’s time to fight for zones of influence in Syria. The catalyst for this new aggravation was the US plan to create “security Forces of the border” in Northern Syria, the basis for which is the Syrian democratic forces (Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF). They include both Arab opposition groups and the Kurdish people’s protection units (YPG and YPJ). What can cause a new aggravation and who in Syria could be a “curb”?

Recent statements by the Turkish leadership, the U.S. and the official Syrian government (Bashar Assad) are distinguished by higher tones. Each side accuses the other two of all sins. That the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to continue the operation “shield of the Euphrates” obviously, sending the Turkish army against the Kurds, while avoiding even thinking about the legitimacy of Bashar al-Assad, calling his regime a terrorist (and, hence, come into conflict with Russia and the United States). In the same spirit was the statement of the Syrian government — it also does not accept the actions of the SDF and Turkey. It is obvious that in such conditions to achieve a consensus and to achieve peace in Syria is virtually impossible. Moreover, war can take a long time, and the country will be even more destroyed.

Interesting information was circulated publication Al-Masdar, according to her, the United States handed over to Kurdish forces man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS). It is clear that to talk about the absolute authenticity of this news is impossible, but if the reality of these rumors, it becomes obvious that these weapons should serve as a shield against Turkish aircraft (primarily helicopters). Also would not be surprising if some of the weapons will move to Turkey and will be used by the Kurdistan workers ‘ party (PKK). In any case, no one will give Ankara to make a “easy walk” in Syria, carried out the operation against the YPG and the YPJ — the recent actions of Erdogan will not cause him support from Moscow that Turkey could be “expelled” from the game due to the simultaneous confrontation with both Russia and the United States. If you try real of a ground operation by Ankara in the hinterland of Syria, Syrian Kurds are likely to get support both from Russia and from the United States. Turkish troops will be “bogged down” in fighting for each locality and incur serious losses. Suffice it to recall the ten lost Leopard 2 tanks during the bloody battle for the small town of El-Bab.

Another trump card in the hands of both the US and Russia, remains the PKK. Supply large quantities of anti-tank missile complexes (ATGW) and MANPADS can lead to a serious escalation of the civil war on the territory of Turkey. Obviously, in today’s scenario, Ankara found itself in a very difficult situation and the ambitions of erdoğan for the return of the influence of the Ottoman Empire in the middle East has almost failed. And the political game of “ping-pong” — from Russia to the United States, does not give real results.

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