The war in Syria is not over. Moreover, it remains unclear how Assad, the Kurds and the Turks will divide the Northern part of the state, even with the terrorists did not manage to completely understand.
The militants, previously ruled everywhere, now herded in the province of Idlib. Here they are for the past five years are endless wars among themselves for territory and scarce resources. They had not been touched — the official forces fought in the East, the South, and the Kurds and trouble Idlib enough task. Ankara seems to be tried to restore order, but left it not quite as planned — unconditionally Turks volunteered to support only the soldiers of the Syrian free army and several smaller groups. The others preferred independence. It backfired in a number of settlements in the Turkish army eliminated their presence with the goal to build temporary military bases and observation posts. More recently, Ankara exerts more efforts in trying to legalize the main group in Idlib. To this end, it on the basis of the Syrian free army is trying to create some kind of opposition coalition.
The project was called “national liberation front”. Its membership includes several tens of thousands of rebels and it would seem the terrorists among them is not, in any case, the main formation in the Russian Federation are not recognized. It gave a small hope for the possibility of negotiations with Damascus with the goal of bloodless normalization of the situation in the province. It is too early to say how diplomatic settlement plan will be effective, however, both from the opposition and from Damascus while talking exclusively about the upcoming war.
The rhetoric is certainly bellicose, but this does not detract from peace efforts of the foreign participants of the civil war. Turkey tries, tries, and Russia. However, it turned out to be insufficient. The largest terrorist entity in modern Syria, is prohibited in Russia Hayat Tahrir al-sham refused coming from all it offers. This formation was created on the basis of dzhebhat an-Nusra, the ideology remains the same. Turkey invited the members of the gang to abandon the struggle and leave the country of origin, if they are Syrians, then they are allowed to go into the less radical groups. It seems at first there were hopes of success, but in the end, Hayat Tahrir al-sham refused to participate in any negotiations with the Turks, Assad and Russia. According to its representatives, the dissolution of the terrorist organization would mean that “Idlib presented to Russia on a Golden platter”. According to them, this cannot be allowed.
And recently one of the leaders of the terrorist group Abu al-Fateh al-Fergani said that his gang will never surrender, and every day she gets stronger. For this reason, Idlib will not fall. Moreover, according to him, in the near future will be a March on Damascus.
Not particularly scary threat, but we must not forget that the followers of the al-Nusra Dzhebhat make a whole army of about twenty thousand people.
Turkish expert keram Yildirim believes that in the case of Idlib will be a lot of difficulties and Hayat Tahrir al-sham — one of the main.
— Of course, the capture of Damascus is unlikely. Even if all forces will now move fighters from Idlib, the capital of Syria, few people will get. And they definitely will end all the fighting spirit in order to storm it. However, sudden onset may cause temporary confusion mode, but I think Russia for its actions compensates for this deficiency. So Damascus is unlikely anyone will attack any terrorist attacks or sabotage, but not a large-scale offensive.
“SP”: — And what about Idlib? Whether the terrorists will be to hold him long?
— Dzhebhat an-Nusra or similar groups are now a big problem for everyone. Turkey is not willing to tolerate them in Idlib, but it is impossible to bring them out — they have nowhere to retreat, so the only thing they can now to fight to the end. Turkey did not plan such an operation, therefore, militarily, this problem was not solved. Assad will have to go to extreme measures because he’s trying to regain all the lost land, and Idlib in this sense, a very important region. What awaits him? If he was he likely would have suffered defeat after defeat as it once was. But with Russia’s help he will succeed. The tactics of Russia is understandable. Initially, she relies on her intelligence, which sets the location of key members of enemy formations. This is followed by the elimination of the leaders.
Of course, this leads to a weakening of the enemy, and at this point begins a sharp attack with massive air support. But in this case, it is not possible to avoid large casualties among the civilian population. This is due to the methods of fighting such terrorist groups as the Islamic state or jabhat an-Nusra.