The vision of the authoritarian regime

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Дальновидность авторитарного режима

“Levada-center” — the only independent sociological service in Russia — has announced that it will not publish data relating to the upcoming presidential elections. Recent data from the service (before the official start of the campaign) pointed out that people’s intention to vote in these elections is the lowest for all history of observations. And the Kremlin needs a high turnout.

Amendments to the election law, which prohibits “foreign agents” to “participate” in the elections, was quietly and quickly passed by the Duma in November 2014 it is Clear, however, that in fact, “Levada-center” in the election and is not involved. Conducting surveys is not participation in elections. However, it is also clear that “Levada-center” is not a “foreign agent” is not involved in politics (that’s right) and not funded from abroad (the Kremlin to find fault with the commercial contract center). So all of these hydrogenie provisions of the law still can only work under the condition of degradation of the judicial system and nothing else. But it’s not about that. Talking about foresight.

Yes, the authoritarian regime in our case is consistency and foresight (in terms of blocking threats). But the opposition — a lack of system and lack of foresight. In November 2014, was quietly adopted amendments about the non-participation of foreign agents in the elections. In December 2014, Navalny was sentenced to a second probation in the case “Yves Rocher”. Then it seemed a little absurd and wonderful — why two sentences? Really plant or not to plant. But no, as later became clear, two sentences are needed in case one of them will be recognized by the ECHR untenable. While the ECHR will make a decision on insolvency of the second, the first stupid to repeat.

In February 2015, was murdered Boris Nemtsov, another opposition leader, able to give weight to the opposition bloc in the Duma elections in 2016 and then become a candidate for election 2018 No conspiracy, it just happened that the events missed in three months at the border of the 2014-2015 cropped up a number of threats related to the electoral cycle of 2016-2018, and largely shaped his future disposition.

In July 2016, two months before the Duma elections — was eliminated by the court, the Association “the Voice”, watching the election, and in early September 2016 (two weeks before the election) was recognized as a “foreign agent” by “Levada-center”.

As for the opposition (in the broadest sense — that is, public, not politicians), it is, unfortunately, susceptible to viral technology: day and night busy discussing who is worse, Sobchak and Navalny, reaching in their arguments, sometimes to the point of complete ecstasy. It’s as if one of them goes to the fourth and fifth six-year term. The Kremlin, on the contrary, full of pragmatism and engaged in what the Kremlin called “clean elections,” that is, the prevention of a broad campaign to expose the fraud and turn them into public political event, as it was in 2011.

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