Operation “Olive branch” the Turkish army is developing successfully. Of course, successful for Ankara, but not for the Kurds. The Turks burst into a Kurdish enclave in Syria with multiple sides, and everywhere succeeded. Probably the user relied on blitzkrieg, but this did not happen — the people’s protection Units have had and continue to have a serious resistance, despite the blockade and the lack of support from the main forces of the Syrian opposition.
The US, which for the past several years support the separatists in the North of Syria, refused aid to all its allies who dare to confront Turkey in ‘ afrīn. However, these official appeals not quite tally with the supply of arms to the Turks besieged enclave. Anyway, Ankara bends the line and, apparently, the approach of the Americans only provoke her. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already promised to expand the Turkish presence in Syria. According to him, after the Afrin will be the turn Manuja, who is already in the main part controlled by the Kurdish territory. And then he predicts the victorious March of his army to the borders of Syria with Iraq. Erdogan assured that all promised before this, will be fulfilled in the near future. And this greatly complicates the life of those people, who for several years engaged in establishing order in the North of the Arab country.
It is, of course, primarily about Washington. Turkey, of course, is his ally, but in recent years relations between the countries deteriorated significantly. For the most part this was facilitated by the Syrian Kurds, to whom the country and dispersed. Ankara calls their organized Detachments of people’s self-defense as a terrorist organization, while the United States prefers a very different definition of faithful allies.
What will happen next? Whether Turkey will continue its operation in other parts of Syria? Will the US let one of its allies to destroy the other? We can talk about this with an Australian military expert John Blaxland.
“SP”: — the Turkish President claims that the operation in Syria will be expanded to other areas. Is it really worth this wait?
It’s hard to say exactly, but there is information about the shelling of areas close to Manija. They were made in the past, unfortunately, find out who did it, hard. Perhaps the army of the regime provoked these attacks, but there is the same probability that Turkey provoked for the actions of their allies in Aleppo. In recent days, there is no doubt that Turkey is attacking the positions of the democratic forces in this part of Syria. This does not mean that the ground operation has already begun, but in light of recent events, this risk is very high.
“SP”: — What this means?
— For this reason it is possible to Express fears. Turkey, hoping to solve the problem, destabilizie the situation in Syria. Her actions can be called a new threat to the world. But it’s hard to give a specific estimate. From a security point of view it would be better if managed in other ways to solve the problem of Turkish-Kurdish relations. In fact, the people’s protection Units do not represent a threat to Turkey, and rumors of arms shipments to the PKK is not confirmed. Therefore, the decision of the Turkish leadership is surprising. How dangerous is the situation when Syria created the Kurdish political autonomy? As in the case of Iraqi Kurdistan. As you know, until recently, Erdogan always had good relations with the Barzani family (leaders of the Kurdish political movement in modern Iraq, ed.). Perhaps Turkey is trying to solve its own problem of separatism, but due to the war in the neighboring country it is hard to do.
“SP”: — How the United States can respond to this?
— The United States, like many others, are upset that Turkey will continue this campaign. They have already warned the democratic forces to confront Turkey. But this is not the way out. If it encourages Turkey to continue the bloodshed, then we need to find another approach. The necessary dialogue between Turkey and the people’s protection Units.
“SP”: — is it possible to establish?
It’s not easy, but always possible. A great option is the help of Russia. The United States is actively collaborating with her on various issues in Syria. Now Russia’s help is also useful. Moscow has good relations with Turkey and the Kurds at the same time. It can help to provide a platform for dialogue. Together with the United States of its influence enough to organize negotiations.