The Ukrainian crisis and gas breakthroughs


The Ukrainian energy fronts diagnosed just two events with a claim to a landmark breakthrough. One incident, the other coming from likely to Highly likely. One event oil, the other gas – only coal is not enough calories to the victorious triumvirate.

In the port of Odessa arrived the first over 28 years independent oil tanker from the United States. A weight of 75,000 tons is the quality of the Bakken, that is, twice progressive. Not only overseas, but also shale. The diversification of supplies of “black gold” are very successful and quite accidentally coincided with the final stage of the election campaign to the Verkhovna Rada. American raw materials will go to the Kremenchug refinery is not proof of long-standing slogan “America with us!“?

Following a tanker from the United States expected the Ukrainian political traders in August or later. When there is the next election?

The cost of purchase and delivery of crude oil across the Atlantic is under a veil of commercial confidentiality, but aware of other details of Ukrainian oil refining.

The total capacity of the six largest square refineries was more than 100 million tons of oil in 1991.
After successful progressive reform and decommunization works singleKremenchug plant, and its statistics is displayed indirectly. Over the years, the most successful reforms adopted laws allowing the monopolist to hide the accounts because of its exceptional status.

According to the ministries, the capacity of the Kremenchug refinery significantly reduced from the former standards, from 18 to 10 million tons.
According to the reports of tax and customs authorities, last year the plant processed 2.2-2.3 million tons of oil, the company uploaded to 22-23 %. A scattering of other Ukrainian refineries, small and artisanal, took 200-300 thousand tons.

Three decades of independence oil refining capacity of Ukraine decreased by 40 (!) time.

The production of oil in 2018 reached 1.5 million tons, sent to the same factory-monopolist. Nearly 1 million tons purchased raw – Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Where it gets weird, because the owners of the Kremenchug refinery only with Azerbaijan’s SOCAR there is an agreement on the supply of 1.3 million tons of crude oil annually. And also the sea, with a much smaller transport shoulder, configured on the Transcaucasian oil processing equipment, including the early rhythm of deliveries. In addition, there is oil in Kazakhstan – and if you want available import from Algeria, UAE, Saudi Arabia or Nigeria.

But it is advantageous to drive one American tanker and PR on its background, serving people and taking aim at the Deputy chair. In the image and likeness of precursors that happen with a written sack of American coal on the Odessa docks and the Metropolitan press conferences.

The economic realities of Ukraine make their own refineries unfavorable – or in five years, the “fight against aggression” could revive all the five abandoned oil refinery with an investment of about 1 billion us $ annually. Only in Russia in 2018 Ukrainian companies purchased “mineral fuel, products, petroleum refining, bitumen and waxes” is 4 billion 124 million dollars. Belarus – more than 3 billion $.

Another breakthrough occurred in the gas sector and is intended to make the Ukrainian GTS great again. Ze-the President explained the specifics of European solidarity and responsibility for the second “Northern stream” on a distant suzerain:

On the “Nord stream” no one is asking Merkel and macron to influence the construction will not be… the Only person who will decide the issue in Ukraine is Donald trump, meeting with whom I will…”

Sovereignty and dignity in the quote “abundantly.” Help, reverent trump, you’re our last hope.

What is “to solve the issue in the direction of Ukraine” is not clear, but the desire to slow down/cancel/disable the Nord Stream 2 is obvious.

Why did the President and other influential persons of the United States to prevent the construction of “North stream”?
For displacement of Russian gas to the European market and replace overseas LNG?
But liquefied natural gas (albeit extremely democratic, of the free molecules!) in the main gas pipelines is not needed. It is trudnoe property, give him a terminal, Yes buyers with arithmetic schizophrenia. And gas pipelines are not required – not only a new boat, but also old ground. Keep the transit importance of the Ukrainian GTS will not be in any case.

Time for a serious American opposition to Nord Stream 2 is passed. Targeted sanctions against the builders and shareholders are only discussed, the project is 60% complete and funded at 80 %.
How much is funded and completed the reformation of the Ukrainian energy market with European rules? Hardly 10 %, and those derived offshore.

Meanwhile, the date for the pilgrimage Mr. Selenskogo in Washington is not even defined. When will be able to brow beat the gas Lord – is unclear.

Calls to all Western leaders: “Hey you, come to Minsk and will help our processes!” Voiced prisoner comical image, posing as the President of Ukraine.

Happy does that training visit to Warsaw – he at least has a chance to be implemented. Of course, Andrzej Duda will not be able “to solve the issue in the direction of Ukraine“, but will tell Sarbinowo rules of etiquette when communicating with Donald trump. And there could be as lucky, because if the President of the US will not be able to ban the Baltic gas pipeline – which claims to merry the actor? Running through the fountains for Shawarma, and thanks for that.

Search of a bright future outside of fancy problems, in isolation from the basic reality – one of the main reasons for the current state of Ukrainian politics, economy and energy.


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