The U.S. Congress let Russia derail

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Конгресс США пускает Россию под откос

On Tuesday, July 25, the House of representatives of the United States Congress by overwhelming majorities (made 419 congressmen, against — 3) approved new sanctions against Russia, Iran and North Korea. The proposed action is much broader sanctions imposed under Barack Obama. So, it demands to punish Russia for its actions in Crimea and the Donbass, and added charges of supplying weapons to the Syrian government, violations of human rights “on the territory, occupied by force the government of the Russian Federation or controlled by him,” undermining the cybersecurity of the United States.

The head of the White house actually fixed a minor role in determining future policy towards Russia (in the past decades, relations with Moscow were defined by the President of the United States, coordinating their actions with Congress).

Some provisions of the bill — such as clause 227, requiring the US President to use sanctions to fight against corruption in Russia — does not have analogues in the sanctions war with Moscow. In p. 228 contains a provision on the punishment of natural and legal persons of third countries (first and foremost, is addressed to the EU) who violate the American sanctions against Russia.

That to purely economic measures severely tightened restrictions for American banks to Finance sanctioned Russian banks and companies (terms of credits be reduced from 30 and 90 days to 14 and 60 days). Strengthened sectoral sanctions on the oil sector (prohibition of supply of equipment and services for oil in the Arctic, deep offshore and from shale deposits). Now they are not the only structures controlled by sanctions companies and individuals, but also those in which such persons have a significant share (33%).

Moreover, under the amendments, the President of the United States must enter at least three types of sanctions against companies or individuals who have invested in “special” oil projects in Russia (offshore, Arctic, shale). The White house also will be obliged to impose sanctions against Gazprom, if it is deemed that the company significantly reduces gas supplies to NATO countries, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.

Even more serious looks to be a direct threat to any possible foreign investors wishing to participate in the privatization in Russia. The President of the United States, according to the document, is obliged to enter at least five types of sanctions against those who invest $ 10 million in the privatization of Russian companies.

The head of the Federation Council Committee on international Affairs Konstantin Kosachev has said in his Facebook that Russia should prepare a “painful” response to the new restrictions. In his opinion, the situation should be discussed with the European Union, which were subjected to us sanctions criticism. “Our allies, they will not, but once hurt their own economic interests, at least a temporary misalliance can get,” — said Kosachev.

What is the meaning for Russia of new sanctions, will support their US President Donald trump?

— Congress adopted the sanctions bill to hit the Trump, — the political scientist, Director of Institute of political studies Sergei Markov. — The document is an important part of the plan for the ouster of the incumbent President of the United States.

To resolve of Donald trump, it is not enough to conduct impeachment proceedings. It is also necessary that trump had no support among their constituents. To address the latter issue, it is important to deprive the White house of the ability to pursue an independent foreign policy — primarily, against Russia. This leads to the fact that voters will look at trump as a wimp. The sanctions bill just allows you to lock the US President towards Russia.

The second strategic objective of the draft law — intervention in European Affairs, and the attempt to impose on Europe, us economic projects. In particular, to force the EU to buy an expensive American LNG is cheaper Russian pipeline gas. I think it will cause growing irritation of the EU, which feels more and more independent of the US.

But most importantly — the document actually declares Russia an enemy of the United States. This, I believe, useful information. We knew it before, but part of the Russian elite, however hesitated and thought that maybe a reconciliation with America. Now it is clear that we should accept the US as a fierce opponent that wants to destroy Russia and nothing else.

“SP”: — what is the key difference between the proposed sanctions, adopted under Barack Obama?

— Sanctions against Russia in fact become eternal. They can’t be undone — until then, until there is an independent Russia. It is important also that the bill creates a mechanism for all Russian oligarchs. De facto, the rich people in Russia are faced with a choice: either they cooperate with us intelligence agencies to overthrow the President of the Russian Federation or leaving the space of American banks and American business. What choice they will make, we will soon see.

— To resist new sanctions, we need a real import substitution, — said the Chairman of Russian economic society. SF Sharapova, Professor of international Finance (University) Valentin Katasonov. — From import substitution, which is, as of now, the switching from one foreign supplier to another, you need to go.

There is also a need in the country to stop betting on companies with foreign capital participation. As shown, they are the main beneficiaries of the current policy of import substitution.

Take, for example, the food industry of the Russian Federation, where more than half of the enterprises are effectively controlled by foreign capital. Now the majority of foreign investors these companies gleefully rubbing their hands: in Russia they have no competitors, they received preferences from the government, and can earn to the fullest. It’s not quite a normal situation.

New sanctions make us think seriously about strengthening our economic security. Even representatives of the defense complex is recognized that the so-called localization of production is, unfortunately, ephemeral. According to my data, still a significant number of components for the end products produced by the enterprises with foreign capital participation. What is it, well showed the scandal with the supply of the Crimea turbines Siemens has revealed that at any point in the scheme of such supplies can be broken.

In fact, we need to more actively develop economic relations with its neighbors. While in this area we especially boast of nothing. With China, of course, to build relationships very difficult, but vital. And here, I believe, we are not finalizing.

In General, to new sanctions should be considered as bitter medicine. The medicine necessary for the recovery of the Russian economy.

“SP”: — Today, many hope that the EU will side with Russia: answer the USA on introduction of additional restrictions against Moscow, in particular, will limit the access of American companies to loans of the European banks. How real is this scenario?

— I would counter sanctions against the United States from the EU are not counted. Indeed, the naked eye can see that the new us sanctions hardest hit Europe. The economic damage from the EU sanctions will be several times higher than the expense of Russia. This fact gives the European radicals a reason to say that the vote in Congress aimed, in fact, against the EU.

But it is unlikely that Europe will “rise from knees”, and will fight with America. It is enough to look at trade statistics, to be sure: Americans are buying Europe due to preferences, which allow the EU to have a big trade surplus with the United States. If the Europeans start now to kick these preferences will be reviewed, and the positive balance will quickly disappear.

Meanwhile, half of the surplus with the U.S. the Europeans are spending to cover the trade deficit with Russia for the purchase of Russian hydrocarbons. So perhaps Brussels will want to seriously quarrel with Washington.

“SP”: — whether the Sign sanctions bill President trump?

— I think will be signed Trump new anti-Russian sanctions at hand. The bill also gives the “green light” U.S. liquefied gas to Europe. In terms of new sanctions, I believe we are unlikely to build “Nord stream-2”. This means that the Americans will be able to gradually capture the European gas market, and the trump — the ability to fulfill election promises of American energy companies.

“SP”: — If Americans will squeeze out Gazprom from the European market, how critical is it for us?

— If the Russian economy will remain the same, if we do not begin reform, Russia will be very hard. Following the previous inertial rate, I believe, will be a serious blow to the Russian economy, and our budget. And most importantly — for the well-being of all without exception of Russian citizens.

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