After the report, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to deputies of the state Duma, the society is keenly interested in the question — who will head the new Cabinet. And most importantly, what will be his economic policy.
Some food for thought gives scheduled for April 17, the meeting of Medvedev with the head of the Center for strategic research (CSR) Alexei Kudrin. It will happen three weeks before the inauguration of President Vladimir Putin, after which the government will resign.
In the meeting Prime Minister with the liberal guru will take part the first Vice-Premier Igor Shuvalov, in charge now of the financial-economic bloc of the government, and the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov. The main topic of discussion will be the reform of public administration, the proposed CSR.
“The current system of public administration is not capable of solving the tasks facing the country. Without reform of this system any “breakthroughs” impossible, no audacious goals unattainable. Want growth above the world average pace? Change the model of state government,” Kudrin wrote in his article, immediately after Putin’s victory in the elections.
According to a longtime associate of the President, the main problem of the country is the fear of change. “With phobias have to fight, and then the government should start with itself,” offers the former Minister of Finance. What specific “changes” offers Kudrin, the country can be judged according to recently published short version of the strategy for the 2018 — 2024.
Among the goals, which offers to achieve Kudrin, increasing the supply of housing for Russians, the increase in life expectancy and pensions, as well as the growth of budget expenditures on education and health by 20-25%.
It is proposed to achieve by reducing the proportion of state assets doubled to 25%, doubling to 40% in the number of small businesses, increasing the retirement age, the growth of one-third of labor productivity and increased openness of the economy.
The typical reaction to this program of ideological antipode Kudrin, Sergey Glazyev. “It is actually a fake, which is good artist: looks real, but without content,” — said the economist. According to Glazyev, is not a strategy, “and a set of declarations similar to the slogans of the may day demonstration of workers and pensioners”.
We will remind, Kudrin resigned as Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister in 2011 after a conflict with Medvedev, who at that time was President. The reason — lack of loyalty — during the visit to the United States, Kudrin said that would not work in the government in the case that in 2012 it will be headed by Medvedev. However, after that, Kudrin met with Medvedev three times.
Political analyst Konstantin Kalachev Kudrin others in the role of “player-coach” with the government.
Since Kudrin recently presented its country development strategy, and the strategy a comprehensive, practical program, I don’t think he is ready to go to the government to a subordinate role, without the possibility to implement it in full. Therefore, given the already obvious fact — Medvedev remains at his post, we can assume that the government uses the strategy Kudrin, but he is unlikely to be included in the Cabinet. It is not necessary Kudrin and Medvedev would not be comfortable.
“SP”: — And Medvedev just left?
— I’m sure 99 percent. It was clear by how confidently he reported to the state Duma. Our President with age, becoming more conservative, including in relation to the people. His assessment of the government was quite favorable, below “satisfactory”, they did not fall. Therefore, what works will not change. Horses in midstream does not change, the old horse furrow not spoil, a country surrounded by enemies is not the time for experiments, etc.
“SP”: — Kudrin will remain to be a merry man, without a job?
— I think he can claim the role of adviser to the President on economic issues. It can act as a guru — the person generating programs and strategies, laying the responsibility on the government and staying in the role of player-coach.
“SP”: — the Responsibility for possible failure?
— If in a few years it turns out that the Medvedev government will not cope with the problems of economic growth, the economy will be in recession, and the recession will go into crisis and have to make unpopular decisions and will need a Prime Minister willing assumed the risk, then it can be probably Kudrin. I would not have discounted.
In turn, the Secretary of the Federation of independent trade unions Alexander Shershukov notes that Kudrin program not published in full, so for good intentions can hide unpleasant surprises companies.
— In the program text Kudrin said of a great future, but says nothing about the concrete steps to that future.
I wonder what are the things that can be judged as negative from a social point of view, for example, raising the retirement age, first, extended for 16 years, and second, accompanied by a simultaneous increase of pensions and salaries, which seems to be newlywed negative effect from raising the retirement age.
The lack of detail is justified by the fact that the version of the program short, but we anxiously await the full version. It would not have turned out that such social greatness of the country will have to make some incredible sacrifices… Getting anxious.
“SP”: — how do you like the new wave of privatization of the economy?
Is the traditional ideology. Supposedly the owner is always working better and more efficiently. Although we all know many examples of the ineffective work of the private sector. Moreover, in both economic and social sense. There are certainly examples of inefficiencies in the public sector. I did not tend to idealize the officials, or those appointed by the government.
“SP”: — Forthcoming meeting with Medvedev, Kudrin looks like an attempt to influence the future course of the Cabinet of Ministers…
That is, until the appointment of a new government and determine new strategies and tactics of power will take place behind the scenes struggle, it was clear. It happens. I assume that the publication of the program Kudrin also serves this purpose. He’s trying to prove he’s not ultraliberal, a supporter of monetary economic policy, but also focuses on social aspects of development too. Perhaps that is why he is now actively negotiate the importance of education, medicine, etc.
“SP”: — Some kind of wolf in sheep’s clothing…
— We will depart from the terms of the fabulist Krylov… anyway, the final decision will be taken by one person. We know that.
“SP”: — Well, Yes, Putin. But the FNPR, as the Association representing millions of workers, has the opportunity if not to influence, at least to explain my position on economic policy of the government to the President?
— We will soon have the General Council of FNPR and we’re planning to explain how we see the future. Moreover, the two parameters, before the presidential election we talked about the orders to the future President, and now let’s talk about the pitfalls that can get in the way of the new course and how to avoid them.
According to the lawyer and Communist Dmitry Agranovsky, the external pressure on Russia will inevitably cause the government to abandon liberal course.
— You can make a prediction: in my opinion, with a probability of one hundred percent of the new Prime Minister will be Medvedev, the personal composition of the government will hardly change, and the policy will be absolutely the same. And for that, according to the authorities, citizens voting. No reason to change the policy with such results in the elections there. Therefore, it will not change.
“SP”: — So it was in time of peace, but it seems that time passes…
— Indeed, the Kremlin should negotiate with the American “partners”, some way to appease them. Here we must understand that in the current government, all Patriotic, statist or accidentally, either superficial or emotional or forced. But essentially we remain a raw appendage of the West. It is the result of embedding there for twenty years. And just so we can lose ‘ em can’t. A liberal government provides a signal to the West that experience is not necessary — the old economic policy will be continued.
Of course, there are political moments in which we cannot compromise in the military-strategic or electoral purposes. We also have our own interests. But the economic policy will not change. No development will be, as the role of a raw appendage suits us. As said Gaidar, we will buy. And the guarantor of this will not only Medvedev, as standing next to Kudrin.
“SP”: — And so shall it be forever?
— It is only a plan. In practice, it is unlikely to be implemented, because our American “partners” we do not give. They will continue to push and suggest to our authorities to surrender in obviously unacceptable conditions for them. On honorable terms would already have given up, but they can’t. That’s the hope. That is, we will send calming signals to the West, and the West will ignore them and there is nothing left but to change this policy.
It will change internally and situational. Also, as was the case with Crimea. This is not the result of a strategic breakthrough plan. Crimea and the Donbass, the right knee jerk reaction. Indeed, the current elite of the Donbas does not need. It prevents them to drive in Miami, in Jerusalem. Also, situational, Russia will react in the future. However, I remind all supporters of the stability lines from “Alice in Wonderland”: “we Need to run just to stay in place, and in order to get somewhere, you have to run at least twice as fast!” No we are quiet life will not. Even if, instead of Medvedev will be Prime Minister Kudrin. The West has felt our slack. Americans just make us spend statist policies. But it will be later.