The search for bottom continues – despite the officially declared out of the crisis

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Поиск дна продолжается - несмотря на официально провозглашенный выход из кризиса

The Russian economy in 2017 continued to deteriorate, despite the officially declared out of the crisis. This opinion in the survey conducted by the Center for business tendencies studies at the Higher school of economy was expressed by 33% of Russians. Almost as many – 30% – reported that their personal financial situation in past year worsened. 18% of respondents believe that in the next 12 months, this trend will continue, according to Finanz.ru.

The share of those whose financial well-being rose, was three times less 10%. The hopes of better financial situation was reported by 12% of respondents.

The consumer sentiment index in the fourth quarter of 2017 has stopped growing for the first time since the end of 2015: optimistic added only pensioners who have paid a one-time five thousand and resumed indexation of pensions. Among young people the index remained unchanged, and among people aged 30 to 49 years began to fall.

The discrepancy between the estimates of pensioners and economically active people is an unusual and worrying trend, previously it was observed only in moments of economic crises of 2009 and 2015, says the head of the centre HSE George Ostapkovich.

It is the respondents from 30 to 49 years is estimated to constitute the core of the middle class, they make the greatest contribution to the economic development of the country. “Strengthening of the pessimistic mood of respondents in this category have the potential to lead not only to a decline in consumer demand and economic stagnation, but also to the emergence of pockets of high social turbulence” – the expert adds.

People don’t see positive economic dynamics, because in the whole country there is a decline in real income. This is expressed not so much in the actual level of wages in higher prices for goods, services and housing, says a leading analyst Amarkets Artem Deev.

Expensive oil does not fix the situation, he says. Although Brent quotes for the six months surged 1.5 times, and the Russian Urals sold abroad at $ 70 per barrel for the first time since the end of 2014, due to the money from the sale of oil replenished the reserves of the government, but not the wallets of citizens.
 

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