The Russian economy is no longer able to feed the oligarchs

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Российская экономика уже не в силах кормить олигархов

For ordinary entrepreneurs, and all the Russians coming hard times

At the Second annual practical conference “Industrial 4.0 Russia” with the filing of the Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev discussed, neither more nor less, the principles of the national digital economy. The fact that the head of the Cabinet the day before has signed the order approving this state program, and hurried to tell the meeting. Introducing the next its “creation”, he said, “I approved the programme “Digital economy”. Putting the economy in figure — matter of our global competitiveness and national security. The horizon program execution — 2024″. In short, simple ways of growth of the Russian economy in current conditions would not exist: we need digitalization…

How many of these “horizons”

and are there any plans and strategies for economic development of the country and where the country is going with this “getting up off its knees”, which we announce? Able to place “Industrial Russia 4.0” without a national technological base, powerful industry domestic micromechanics and nanoelectronics?

— Regarding Mr. Medvedev and the digital economy: it all depends on what KPI it will be put into this part, because technically we have the whole digital economy, says businessman Dmitry Potapenko. We all use numbers. Seriously speaking, it is unclear how they are going to talk about it, because if we take a sphere of blockchain and cryptocurrency, then you need to decide what it is: the action, contract or property. All other countries have defined it by law. If we look at the actions of our government, they can’t decide how it will be taxed.

About Mr. Medvedev and the digital economy: it all depends on what KPI it will be put into this part, because technically we have the whole digital economy, says businessman Dmitry Potapenko. We all use numbers. Seriously speaking, it is unclear how they are going to talk about it, because if we take a sphere of blockchain and cryptocurrency, then you need to decide what it is: the action, contract or property. All other countries have defined it by law. If we look at the actions of our government, they can’t decide how it will be taxed.

“SP”: — And Siluanov says it is necessary to regulate the issue of cryptocurrencies.

— Yes, and it indicates that he does not understand, about what speech. Take the approaches of other countries. Someone said that it is a means of payment, somebody’s property, someone that action. Take at least some! After all, there is no absolutely right or wrong approaches. And we are doing nothing. Is not accepted any decisions. And in the end, the digital economy, mining and production of cryptocurrencies fell within the scope of the Federal security service. The law we have, but it is in the sphere of people in uniform. Nothing good about it. And speaking of the future, in 2024, it is forced to disappoint: by the year 2020 will change the overall market.

“SP”: — This may be due to the fact that Medvedev raised the issue of his nomination for the presidency in the next political cycle, and all planning horizons it will be to move there?

I’m not sure, since this is, after all, group extensions, and President Dmitry Medvedev have someone to nominate. Conditional 5-7 “towers of Kremlin”, that is groups, not United in this matter. If I was in any of them, I have found another contender for the nomination.

“SP”: — And yet, it is unclear how to plan for 2024, because today there is no economic program — no crisis, no mobilization plan, no long-term strategy.

Now the approach of the authorities is this: they don’t make any decisions. Because as soon as a decision, after “A” will have to say “B”. Why are we talking about the approaches of economists: we impose slightly different matrix with the same numbers and derive different results. For example, Kudrinskaya street, and Tito’s platform very close. And in that sewn the fatal thing is institutional reform, which, in essence, is the reform of public administration.

“SP”: — But we talk about economic growth, and announcement of various social guarantees. This populism or a reality?

— You can “walk” through the numbers, but Saudi Arabia has shaped the next year’s budget with a deficit of 1 trillion 200 billion, 2019 — 820 billion in 2020 — That is 870 billion every year a total of 1 trillion disappears. The question is, you can promise to buy at a “Lamborghini”. It’s as if an alcoholic father has promised the family every day to ride a Porsche, and hungry children say a Porsche is good, but I would like to eat. I don’t know where I would get these sums. This is done to allow for the election of moms. And how cynical and unprincipled to do so?

“SP”: — Medvedev said that in retirement the money is there, Putin said that mommy will also. The youth something to give, locksmiths, manufacturers of water… These promises will be implemented?

— Why not promise? To get out, the power is always make elegant. Then push down on regional budgets which are formed from regional transfers. We have only 12 regions that are donors. Who is to blame, if not fulfilled promises? Governors and mayors. And if you do not return the debt, the more the penalties will apply.

“SP”: — the President promised that within three years not to raise taxes. In your opinion, what is the mood in the business environment, which is increasingly deflates?

Two years ago there were 50 non-tariff charges, and now — 74. But taxes are not raised! You can do the word “tax” to ban. And all will be well, the budget will svertysha.

“SP”: — And yet, what is the mood in the business environment? Do people leave, do they feel some kind of government assistance? I mean small and medium business.

In every sphere the same story. Therefore, the entrepreneurship of medium and small — according to our estimates, it is from 49% to 51% in the “black” area — when people cease to register any “Shine”. Serve the people without cash registers, and pay no taxes, and bribe all Supervisory and regulatory authorities, and are working quietly. And it suits everybody. Those who can, leave. But such — units.

“SP”: — Why?

— First of all, it needs start-up capital, some sort of base. Secondly, it is necessary to be prepared mentally.

“SP”: — Studies show that subsistence farmers have moved 70% of the population.

We’re going back to a time when not only subsistence farming, but there was no money. I even small entrepreneurs say: keep an eye to the cryptocurrency. Because we now turn to barter trade.

“SP”: — Medvedev said that the ruble will be all right. Can we repeat the situation of the 90 — black Tuesdays, defaults?

At the rate I can say so. We must remember the law that was dragged through the state Duma and signed by Putin. The law under which our “orphans” — Kovalchuk and others owe taxes for 2014-2016. So while these “eagles” his money is not returned, the course will be kept. As soon as I return — the rate productat. Plus, they have payment of the debts of state-owned corporations. But I think before the election, the rate will keep.

“SP”: — External challenges have a real impact on our economic situation? We are, after all, dependent country. Or we can close the border to make a sovereign economy and develop it yourself?

In my opinion, you need two things: cheap hydrocarbons and that the nuclear button one is not pressed. If these two points are met, then who is in power, and whether “quartering on Calvary”, it doesn’t matter. The main thing — “button” and hydrocarbon. They are fenced off from us. They only need to look at how to fly our rockets.

“SP”: — the Election campaign in Russia. Will there be some external factor to put pressure on Putin?

— And why, if he was completely satisfied? It takes two main points. That’s all that matters.

“SP”: — the conditions Under which the government will go for real change in economic policy?

— Their behavior is very similar to the behavior of gangsters. First they ate Commerce, and then each other. When will the bickering at the level of Finance Minister, the head of the Investigative Committee, then it would mean that they ran out of money.

“SP”: — we Have a budget deficit, the loss-making regions…

— It is profitable. Because the task of each Governor is to create social unrest.

“SP”: — I would Like to understand the mood of society. Is there any boiling point of a Russian man?

— While it is not. While TV wins there. Once the tower goes down, people will start to Wake up.

“SP”: — the Oil price in the $ 100-150 change anything in the country?

— Of course. There will be more yachts and airplanes. But if 15-20 then people will have hard. All will continue to blame trump, Obama and “bitch” Clinton. We need to introduce new taxes.

“SP”: — And fast the oligarchy will run out of money, that there was a situation to carry out economic reforms?

— I’ve estimated that the Russian economy can be derbanit another two or three years. I assume the methods they use.

“SP”: — How do you feel about the technocrats?

Is a technical appointees who were removed from the municipal level. Performers-level fetch. No power senatorstva — only the presidential Administration.

“SP”: — there is Little doubt in the victory of Vladimir Putin in the presidential election. But noticeable if we had the political will and the course of real economic development, improve the lives of Russians who are waiting for change?

Will one thing: Vladimir Putin is Vladimir Putin, because otherwise we will have a sign in the Kremlin to change…

 

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