Rising above 68 rubles to the U.S. dollar, the ruble was in 2024. Judging by the latest forecast of Ministry of economic development, as 68 rubles to the US dollar was to be the average rate in 2024 (!) year. Today, in August 2018, this “guide” says only one thing: the government is not, where is the ruble.
By the way, where it is heading? Where is the limit of the fall? And there is no such limit. You can talk about what the border, let’s say it will reach in 2018, but dream on, that there is some sort of concrete barrier, below which it will not sink, not worth it. It is only in words of the Russian economy is steadily growing. There is no such growth, as is the situation between a rise and fall, is hanging out. From an economy, by definition, cannot be a strong currency.
Strong economy — strong national currency. Weak economy, weak national currency.
A weak economy can be periods when the national currency may strengthen, but it usually is temporary, speculative, opportunistic nature. The Russian economy demonstrates it fully.
And today, when you hear allegations that the authorities have all opportunities to ensure financial stability, that is stability of the ruble, I want to ask: well, what are not used the best possible? Or what happens with the ruble — this is a demonstration of financial stability?
No such opportunities. No, because the economy is weak. No, because the tax burden is increasing. No, because sanctions are intensified and contrast them with nothing.
It is China that economic power has become equal to the United States, may try to oppose them in trade, economic struggle, and the yuan retreats the US dollar. Unfortunately, Russia can not, because the size of its economy in 8-9 times (!) less American.
New US sanctions (already it is necessary to clarify what “new” refers to, there is in fact a queue formed) can seriously devalue the ruble. Then there’s, you know, such a resonance effect, when some sanctions superimposed on the other. Alas, not only in physics, there is such an effect, in Economics, it also works.
Igor Nikolaev economist