The economy is stormy, the ship of state is struggling with the waves and the passengers get seasick. The team’s actions on the bridge have raised questions among those who are free from the watch. Those in the engine room, busy busy at work, and the problems of those in the cockpits, cabins and in the galley, they do not care. They have the task to maintain the fuel pressure and oil temperature, to monitor the electrical equipment, to prevent the loss of progress and to react to commands from the bridge.
But on the ship, meanwhile, a revolt is brewing. The boatswain’s going dissatisfied and discuss the situation. It is really heavy. Deck team complains of loose rigging and speaks of the destruction. There are voices accusing the captain that he is not a nose to the wind and the cold. Don’t listen to the advice of the crew. I propose to change the steering and change the XO. I suspect a second helper in the inability to work with the cards. And overall, I think the captain lost control of the situation.
Meanwhile on the ship…
1. The loss of materiel.
The growth of bankruptcies reached a pace unprecedented. Prior to this, the peak of monthly bankruptcies were in March of 2015, when collapsed oil prices and sanctions. Now this peak exceeded 5%. “Mortality” business is close to the historical record, which was delivered at the end of 2009. Hardest wave of bankruptcies in the construction sector in the third quarter went bankrupt 700 firms, for the first 9 months of 1951. Only construction market in the verge of bankruptcy about 20% of firms. Trade went bankrupt 18% of companies – 557 firms, which was a record for the period with 2007-go year. Across the country a wave of bankruptcies covers small and medium businesses – large companies have access to state support. Small and medium businesses lived in conditions where high oil prices helped to maintain a high level of consumption of the population, achieved through lending at high interest rates. Now oil has fallen and expensive credit has become unavailable. Cheap loan there is not expected.
2. The load on the crew.
On the background of the decline in industrial production and contraction of purchasing power exacerbated the budget problem. Saving the Treasury, the tax levied dying business increased activity for the collection of arrears and increase tax rates. According to Rosstat and the Ministry of Finance, from January to September profit from the economy fell by 8.8%, and fees income tax profit rose by a third. Only assessments on the results of tax audit fees have increased by 20%.
3. A poor team.
50 thousand people from the Russian elite are in the growing panic due to the upcoming in February, the imminent arrest of accounts and property and deprivation of the American entry visas. Arrested created by Mikhail Prokhorov for washing off output from the Russia money Bank of Cyprus. The same will be arrested the whole business Prokhorov, who has long been in America. Abramovich will not help neither divorce nor the re-writing property to his children. All these assets will be arrested. Other rich people, whose capital was created in the 90s, trying to organize the courts, but they know not only what courts are they lost – they know the courts will not be simple. Abramovich was waiting for the decision of the American court to award the property to the former wife. Now it is clear that the court will not. Tricks, held in Russia, are not in the United States. Elita froze in a state of doom – before the mass death left a month. The inevitability of the loss of Western assets is inevitable and can not stop it nothing. The election of Putin to thwart the will not succeed, the elite answer for everything.
4. Part of the chain of command instead of sealing leaks preparing the boat.
Trapped under U.S. sanctions list of oligarchs nevertheless in no hurry to return the money to Russia. Instead they are trying to redistribute the money among other local assets. So Vekselberg their shares in the company for the extraction of gold transferred to other offshore companies in the Bahamas and Cyprus. The beneficiaries of the offshore is unknown. Usmanov one of its offshore to buy back shares from the former as an offshore company. Michelson gave their shares to gas processing and petrochemicals company in trust management of Gazprombank. If it helps this is the subterfuge of the elite of the Russian business to avoid sanctions, will show the near future.
5. A fuel leak.
300 Russian banks collapsed and lost their licenses. About this Nabiullina told Putin in a personal meeting. Since the beginning of 2014 to rescue the Russian banks the government spent 3.2 trillion rubles, calculated in August, the international rating Agency Fitch. The money came in the form of direct capital injections, were given to the bankers for recovery of other troubled banks and went to the Deposit insurance Fund, the completion of which is almost completely carried out due to the issue of the Central Bank. This is a note to those who say that CB has the right to print money without the permission of the IMF. Here printed did not ask permission. Why? Apparently, Putin still somehow able to influence the Central Bank. There is no other explanation.
6. The crew pulls the crackers and the grocery store in the cabin.
Russian business and population record amounts to buy foreign currency. Despite the rise in oil prices, the strengthening ruble and declared victory over the economic crisis, the real sector, as well as citizens of the Russian Federation in 2017 increased their foreign currency investments to the historical record, reported in the “Comments about the state and business”, Higher school of Economics. Rates on foreign currency deposits is close to zero, and people choose cash to avoid the risk of the Russian banking system. Business, apparently, is not the information that debt service is not only the captain but also the main therapist of the country – Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin – said the city and the world with TV screens. By the way, I must admit that the same Putin directly told businesses that in 2018 improvements will not happen – for no reason. Do the grounds to improve things there. Everyone who represents the old bankrupt system of management of the economy, remain in place, and even if you change the face, it will not change the principles. That’s really why there’s really no reason.
7. How and to whom the captain in a storm change the chain of command.
It is clear that on the background of these trends will be very difficult to keep in the same volume of the program of rearmament. In the economy we must seriously change the basic underlying principles, or the country will face a weakening of foreign policy positions and the defeat in the arms race. However, such a change requires drastic political measures, the consequence of which will be significant personnel changes in Putin’s inner circle and the economic bloc of the Government. The implementation of such changes will mean not only a change of strategic course, which involve the offensive no longer cold and hot war with the West, and a substantial correction in the design of power with the loss of balance in the system of checks and balances. This threat of a collapse of power is a major constraint for professional politicians, how is Vladimir Putin. For don’t understand Pavel Grudinina this moment do not appear to be significant and he will face the problem of collapse of the vertical of power only after its collapse. It will ruin the government and destroy the Grudinina, if he managed to become President. The situation gets out of control so that Grudinin will repeat destiny Kerensky.
The difficulty of the situation in which Putin comes to the next election, is that you do not change the main pillars in the system anymore, but also to change them too. Any change of the system without destroying it are possible only from above the part of the ruling elite, which will be able to maintain control and to make changes. From the bottom or side it can be done. The counter-elite, bursting into power, the system will not improve, but only destroy, and will take decades to debug the new system, which will also imperfect, crooked and defective, just different. Awareness of the need for a major overhaul of the new system will occur immediately after the appearance of the main outlines of this new system. An example of the Poroshenko regime in Ukraine poslemaydannoy for all to see. This is not to remember the experiments with Lenin’s war communism and NEP. The disappointment of the society will occur as quickly as it arose about the reforms of Gorbachev and Yeltsin. Euphoria always quickly turns into frustration and hatred.
Always built something that was intended. Immediately begins the search for the guilty. 10 years looking for them, punished, and then it turns out that once again made a mistake, went too far, many punished not not not for. And again, looking guilty. Find. Punished. But it turns out that there are still many people who are missed and not punished. And again, looking guilty. And again find. And again, demanding punishment. The paradox of the long popularity of Putin is that he avoided major reforms and limited the current with minor repairs. Avoiding the wrong targets, penalties and mistakes in the sentences. Purposes was not, because everything that is made well, and punish no one and nothing. Something not made up? Put it on the form. Warned. Reprimand there is someone to announce, and shoot nobody. He even almost not planted. It is simply not to blame.
It is important to understand that the current Russian elites and their willingness to change the enormous impact of the February cannibalization of their basic structure. The elite substance, which arise after this cleaning, done by the Americans, it may be easier to go for the required reform of the system. But before cleaning took place and had impact on the target audience, something concrete to plan and outline, it is absolutely impossible. Perhaps Putin precisely because of such considerations in no hurry to open their intentions in relation to political and economic transformations after their election.
7. Does the captain of the degree of threat?
One thing’s for sure formidable the need for such reforms, Putin understands as no one in Russia. Just because it is a question of the survival of the country and himself as a human being. Putin visually observed the collapse of the Berlin wall and as a few other well remembers the fate of Erich Honecker and Nicolae Ceausescu. Visual understanding of it adds to them personally observe the fate of Milosevic, Hussein and Gaddafi. Therefore, all speculation about the fact that, say, Putin lives in a different reality and does not understand what is happening, is silly and untenable. Putin is very deeply live in the reality that there exists. Otherwise he would have long dead. And there is no doubt that Putin has a few of the forecast scenarios. These forecasts are made not by government and not by our expert stars of YouTube, and the best analysts of special services and consider all options changes from the very small to the significant. The choice of script is always done in accordance with the current time.
8. Whether the crew understands the degree of risk?
The situation is very complicated, will be even more difficult in the future, but the process remains under control, and while this is the most positive news of all news. Ship of the Russian state runs the rapids, maneuvering between the rocks and stones, the Risk is enormous, but to panic is still no reason. In any case, while the steering wheel is not broke COC with galley and head “artelli” – food warehouse. The products they distribute well, but with a pilot they have problems. The merchant Navy was done. The bridge had only seen from afar. The vessel can not manage at all. So the main thing – with a total palundra not change the foolish captain on caretaker. Then certainly swim out. And so there is a chance.