The OPEC summit+ in Vienna gave an answer to one question, but put a new

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Саммит ОПЕК+ в Вене дал ответ на один вопрос, но поставил новый

The extension of the Vienna OPEC transaction+ has already had all the possible positive impact on the market, and further growth of oil prices it will not bring. Now the main topic of speculation in the market is the question: whether the parties to the agreement on production cuts smoothly out of it when the time comes?

In 2018, none of the interviewees RIA Novosti experts do not waiting for a rise in prices above $ 65 per barrel. “While the factors contributing to growth and decline in oil prices, substantially compensate each other. The new agreement, OPEC+ will help or stabilization, or even slight bullish rally. But to expect a strong rally in oil prices to $ 100 per barrel, it is not necessary”, – the chief of analytical management of BKF Bank Maxim Osadchy.

And Chris midgely, head of the analytical division of S&P Global Platts, believes that the pressure on prices in the first half of 2018 will have a weak seasonal demand and rising oil inventories. However, a member of Board of Directors IK “Prime Capital” Sergey Budilin noted that the major reduction in the cost of oil is unlikely: “Prices will remain in the range of 60-65 dollars per barrel.”

But what will happen next — that’s interesting. It is not yet clear, will the parties to the transaction to renew it after 2018 – it depends on a number of market and geopolitical issues. However, if OPEC+ decides to terminate the transaction, it is important to do this gently so as not to cause a new collapse in the market. But for 2018, the situation may be ambiguous.

“It is no coincidence that parties to the Covenant, extending it to the end of 2018, made an interim date for a possible revision of quotas – June. Too many local uncertainties that can affect the global balance of supply, shifting it in the direction of excess, and Vice versa,” says editor in chief for commodity markets Thomson Reuters Alexander Yershov.

These include the anti-Russian sanctions, possible further slowdown of the Chinese economy and the situation with Iran. Deputy Director of the analytical Department of “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova recalled that, according to OPEC forecasts world oil demand will grow in 2018 by 1.4% – more than 98 million barrels per day. “If OPEC forecasts are not justified, and the demand for oil will still be weak, then the transaction OPEC+, it may again have to renew,” she said.

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