“Imagine that tomorrow Putin will die. Yes, it happens. He’s not young, he’s nervous, and life in Russia to a man’s longevity, not much has. The next day the group of Putin’s elitki (var. “The Kremlin towers”) will start a merciless war of “all against all” for money, property and power with a drain of dirt on each other in the media, social networks and Bulk, with mutual sudden landings and the same sudden exemptions with other plantings,” writes author and analyst on his page in Facebook.
“There are, of course, a nonzero probability of establishing a dictatorship as some of the junta, but the level of mutual distrust and fear between opposing groups, which are United only by Putin and his rating is so high that this probability tends to zero.
Society as a result of this struggle will have a bunch privlastnye groups (and clans, sometimes even family), none of which will be able to obtain a monopoly on power, and the probability of the formation of a strong coalition due to the high level of distrust of each other is extremely small.
Here and require these groups appeal to the society (nation). For this they will have to portray some attractive ideology and vision of the future that would win the election (a version of the civil war “Gazprom” against “Rosneft” and the FSB against the Ministry of interior is not considered).
If death, Putin will happen until 2021 a high probability that you’ll Wake up your favorite Catherine Shulman “dormant institutions” like parliamentary parties, which with their camera snapped up the warring factions. And the EP in this case can be torn apart by warring interests, will revive the popular front and the Communist party, LDPR and CP of the scenery will become spokesmen for the interests of any privlastnye groups and clans.
In principle, we can already estimate what ideology will be involved in the struggle for power: liberalism, and in two variants of a sovereign and Pro-European, socialist populism, Imperial fascism (so far without him?) and Russian nationalism (not Imperial!!!).
And here questions to the opposition. What will she do? Hold a rally or March? Sorry, but this is ridiculous and not true. In this situation it is necessary to offer a positive vision of the future and a constructive plan of action to get this to go to the polls, who because of the war privlastnye groups at risk of being the most honest in the modern history of Russia. The opposition need to take part in them, not typing their stable 1-2-5% of the vote.
We have the opposition with a positive image of the future and a constructive plan of action in such a case? I’m afraid that such opposition we have. In this ideal case, the opposition quarreled because of the “division of portfolios” in the future government nothing attractive will not be able to offer, in addition to compromising on each other”.