The new “bottom” of the Russian economy

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Новое "дно" российской экономики

The rapid economic ascent of Russia has been postponed indefinitely. Another “bottom of the crisis” found the way, and what drivers will help us to rise to the surface – that President Putin and the Medvedev government continues to be undecided.

Progress report of the Central Bank headed by Elvira Nabiullina, the country does not promise anything good. According to the Department of studies and forecasting of the main financial regulator of Russia, to talk about sustainable economic growth in the foreseeable future is not necessary. The reason for that possible fluctuations in the oil market.

The attentive audience of the Central TV channels will wonder: “How so? The head of state, the Cabinet and the loyal experts all day long they say to diversify and improve the economy, but in fact “black oily sludge and its cost continues to decide how much it will cost United States dollar and will be indexed salaries and pensions”.

Analysts of the Central Bank will not argue. Only silently nod. Indeed, the output of the economy on the path of slow growth bankers associated with the absence of external shocks. We have, as you know, two – a decrease in oil prices and the strengthening of economic sanctions from the West.

If the time has stopped here today and now, Russia’s GDP would be the chances of goose steps to crawl into a plus. 46-47 per barrel of Urals oil is not that comfortable, but does not stress the strap, not driving to sell off state property for peanuts. Economic sanctions by the West in their majority have long since learned to bypass through Belarus and Kazakhstan allies, as well as off-shore firms “Horns and hoofs”. And the further, the it will be easier to do. Importantly, conditions are not worsened, but the us is no guarantee.

In the oil market balance is unstable. Should the quotations of “black gold” to go up at least to $ 60, the risk of gross production growth of shale raw materials with the subsequent collapse of the fold increases. Plus Russia and Saudi Arabia from its market share not planning to give up, boosting the development of mineral resources and set new records seized from the ground to the barrels.

Insulated too all, to put it mildly, uneasy. Bloomberg reports that European margins are seriously considering to extend the restrictive measures against Moscow. Qualitative and quantitative parameters of future sanctions packages, of course, no one opened. This could be as a ban on entry into Europe and the United States some members of the media and the embargo on the supply of raw materials, metal, and disconnection from SWIFT payment system, which scared us 2 years ago.

If we analyze the behavior of the Kremlin in recent months, ready to escalation of the conflict there. “Sacred victim” progressive humanity Nadezhda Savchenko returned home and is aiming for the presidency, the press service of the head of state full of humanity and are willing to contribute to the return of the Donbass of Ukraine into the fold, therefore, and to ease the economic pressure on Russia.

This behavior can be dictated by staffing changes in the economic structure of the presidential pool, which we learned not so long ago. As you know, all three models of crisis development, announced at the economic Council, the President culled. For granted in its pure form is the guarantor of the Constitution does not consider it necessary to take any of them. Glazyev plans and Titov violate well-established over the last 15 years the balance of power within the elite, and therefore to bring them to life Vladimir Putin will not be in any hands. In turn, Kudrin program at the current foreign hands, is doomed to failure.

However,here the oscillations are taking place. According to rumors, leaked to a number of authoritative media, the head of the Center for strategic research strongly advised his old friend to reduce international tension, what national leader did not agree, predetermining a future failure tactics “belt-tightening” and a search of foreign investment.

Therefore, with the “bottom of the crisis,” Russia will have to crawl out on a whim, using intuitive anti-crisis strategy based on emotions and balanced geopolitical benefits. Risks and bury itself in the mud for the long haul with this management have the huge country is very high.

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