The main intrigue of the Duma elections — the liberal democratic party and the Communist party ?

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Главная интрига думских выборов — борьба между ЛДПР и КПРФ ?

The scientists, based on a fresh rating of the parliamentary parties, made a prediction about the distribution of roles in the future convocation of the state Duma.

Russia is very close to the main event of the year: this Sunday, September 18, the country will elect a new State Duma. “Ridus” tried to find out how the electoral potential we have today the major parliamentary parties, with the main levers of legislative power.

“United Russia” remains the first

Ahead, not difficult to guess, the party in power. United Russia go to the polls with a firm confidence that the results of the popular vote legislative the first violin of the orchestra will remain in their hands. Although earlier media reports were full of predictions that the popularity of “United Russia” will probably subside in the next convocation of the state Duma, the influence of the party is not quite so weighty as we are accustomed to seeing for the past 13 years.

It seemed to many that the “United Russia” will SAG under the weight of the reform of the political system of the country aimed at competitiveness, openness and legitimacy.

However, recent research studies suggest otherwise. For September 2016 the electoral rating of “United Russia” amounted to 41.1%. This is as much as 28.5% more than in the liberal democratic party, which occupies the second place in terms of political preferences of Russians.

The political scientist Pavel Danilin is sure that United Russia managed to keep the weight in society, thanks to the five-year work “on themselves and over the political system of the country.

“The party tries to answer those queries that come from the public. The first such request is open and legitimate elections. Carried out a reform of the electoral system. Elections completely changed their style. On Sunday we will see in their ballots the greater number of parties than in the 2011 elections because the registration process the CEC has become much easier. In addition, the seventh convocation of the state Duma will be elected on a mixed system. That is, for candidates running on party lists, single-mandate deputies will be added that will have to answer for their actions directly to the residents of the districts from which they were elected,” said Danilin.

“Second, the ruling party expressed a desire to be updated, — says the expert. Thanks to the primaries, candidates from the “United Russia” would never be the people in politics, young, inexperienced power, but each of them is professional in its own field, each with something extraordinary, otherwise they would not have passed the preliminary vote. It can be assumed that the composition of the United Russia faction in the state Duma in 2016 will change by about two-thirds”.

“Furthermore, — said Danilin — the party abandoned the use of the administrative resource. If you had almost 64 of 83 regional heads was the head regional list of United Russia, today it is not so. Also played a role, and the support of “United Russia” of President Vladimir Putin, who showed her his trust.”

It is worth noting one important detail: no matter how high were the September rating of United Russia, in September, he was 0.2 percent lower than in August. According to our source close to the presidential administration, minor fluctuations related to the fact that 19 single-mandate districts, United Russia did not put up their candidates.

“It is clear that the Holy place is never empty. And where there are no candidates from United Russia, there trying to gain momentum candidates from competing parties. And with the growth of their personal popularity, if they are well conducted election campaign, the growing popularity of their parties,” said political analyst Vladimir Kireev.

At the same time, the expert noted that in those regions where single-mandate deputies from “United Russia” are still present, the rating of the ruling party, by contrast, shows some growth.

“This year’s single-and not only them, but almost without exception, candidates have to communicate with people directly, to understand their problems and needs. The main difference between the current election campaign that no longer will be able to get some leaflets, billboards and meetings at the local recreation center, which came to citizens with pre-agreed questions. This means you need to go into the yards and to talk to people, even if the environment sometimes were uncomfortable. And people, I think this is quite appreciated, and this was reflected in the party’s rating”, — says the analyst.

Who’s next

If the first place is more or less clear, which party will finish at number two, guess not so simple. According to published data VTSIOM, a political force may well be the liberal democratic party.

“Such variant is quite possible, although previously the second place was traditionally occupied by the Communists. However, during the election campaign many of them, for example, Valery Rashkin, the order managed to discredit itself. And the rhetoric of the Communist party, it should be noted, has not changed over the years. The dream of a future Communist under the red sun has long sunk into oblivion along with the Soviet Union, but the Communist party, it seems, still does not want to understand and accept. Perhaps the party simply does not want to change or something else,” — says Vladimir Kireev.

“Between the LDPR and the Communist party really turned a serious struggle, —said political analyst Dmitry Orlov. And who will win it, it is difficult to assume: the first leads in the ratings, but the second is stronger than the propaganda network of single-seat districts. It’s one of the intrigues is the future leader of LDPR Vladimir Zhirinovsky and the Chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist party Gennady Zyuganov — the pillars of the political system, which no one today replace.

“As for the fourth parliamentary party “Fair Russia” — it can not overcome the five percent barrier and to cede his place to someone else. Then, the parliamentary parties of the palette will change”, — added Dmitry Orlov.

“Fall of a rating “Fair Russia” in the last weeks of the campaign can lead to the fact that under certain conditions the party may not overcome the five percent barrier. Thus with high probability the three percent barrier is “Apple” (maybe even 5%), great chance to overcome the 3 percent barrier to remain the “homeland”,” — said the expert.

The Role Of The CEC

Summing up the preliminary results, the experts agreed that whatever the final result, the election campaign of 2016 can be considered relatively calm.

However, the last statement is controversial. According to political scientist Alexey Chadaev complete the campaign turned out “not calm”, as if someone called her a “quiet, boring”, or otherwise. “Single-member campaign turned out very fruitful, — said the Chad comments, “Reedus”. — In this direction has been the greatest tension. I now rode through the regions, and it is very hard”.

A large role in the legitimacy of the campaign played, the CEC Chairman, Ella Pamfilova. She was personally involved in resolving conflicts.

The role of the CEC in an extremely high level of the last campaign are very high, — says Alexey Chadaev. — Decision of appointing Pamfilova, head of the Central election Commission was extremely successful.” According to him it is evident that the task of ensuring the transparency and legitimacy of the elections Pamfilova “took it as their own personal”.

“Of course, the number of claims in the organization of this election is much, much lower than five years ago,” — said the expert, noting that the members of the new composition of the CEC has allowed a problematic situation during the campaign by his personal participation.

“Pamfilova and other members of the CEC closely monitor each complaint for possible violations in the regions and this has borne fruit,” — said Kireev.

So, for example, quickly succeeded in eliminating public concerns about the massive issuance of absentee ballots.

“Absolutely do not understand this hysteria about absentee ballots. There is no mass distribution of these absentee ballots. We have only in the country issued 271 188 absentee ballots out of 3 million, less than 9%. This is an insignificant proportion”. What about the mass fraud can then be discussed? Well, think of two candidates from the same party in a nearby neighborhood a few pull yourself voting to increase turnout within the party and a little lower at another candidate within the party”, — Pamfilova said earlier in an interview with TASS.

Leader in the number of issued absentee ballots, according to CEC is the Moscow region. “There is just something 22 731 absentee ballot issued an insignificant number, especially the majority of those who are working in Moscow,” — said Pamfilova.

We will remind, the Duma elections will be held on 18 September under a mixed system: 225 deputies are elected on party lists and 225 in single — mandate constituencies.

For the first time in the last few years to fight for a place in the state Duma will be 14 parties. In 2007, an honor bestowed upon only six games, and in 2003 11.

See also:

  • The preliminary results of the elections to the Duma: Russians are waiting for an optimistic five-year plan
  • “The best test for the political system”: what you need to know about the upcoming elections
  • Seventeen parties are going to compete for a place in the state Duma

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