USA are rapidly increasing production of shale oil. Last year alone increased production by 16.6%. For comparison – in Russia – 1.6%, Saudi Arabia 3.3%.
Analysts of one of the most insightful investment funds Goehring & Rozencwajg claimed that the peak of oil production on the three major U.S. deposits of ten million barrels a day – will be reached in eight years, after which production will quickly decline.
The consulting firm Wood Mackenzie noted that long-term oil production in the Permian basin (Texas) is a concern: there’s noticeably increased the volumes of coming together with oil water. This is the first signs of exhaustion of the deposits.
If simultaneously to extract all the reserves of American oil to satisfy global demand (36.5 billion barrels) for two years only. And for own needs of the United States is 7.5 billion barrels per year – enough only for eight years.
As noted by the CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources Scott Sheffield in respect of the forecasts for declining production in the Perm field. According to him, “we can expect performance on the level of 1 million barrels of oil a day, as it was in 2018. However, production at Perm oilfield can reach 8 million barrels a day, and at a much slower pace, when the Midland field is the only field with a growing volume of production in the United States after 2025… the Number of drilling rigs level 1 is depleted very quickly.”
Also Centennial Resources CEO mark Papa during a recent telephone conference noted that the growth of oil in the United States in 2020 will be significantly less than 1.2 million barrels a day year on year.
Thus, the largest oil field in the U.S. is close to its peak values in terms of production, but soon their resource may be exhausted.