The Ministry of economic development, the government introduced a new macroeconomic forecast for the next 6 years, which dramatically worsened expectations on all macroeconomic indicators.
Despite the fact that the price of oil was above expectations and average to 69.3 per barrel in 2018 (61.4 in April forecast), to bring it down to 2% growth in the Russian economy can not, and next year again will start to slow down, warns the MAYOR.
The forecast for GDP growth in 2018 reduced from 2.1% to 1.9%, and the next – to 1.4%, which is almost 1.5 times less than the government had expected three months ago (2.2 percent). The growth of real wages of the population will slow by more than 6 times – from 6.3% this year to 1% next.
“The slowdown in 2019 linked to the VAT increase,” – explained to “Interfax” a source in the financial-economic bloc of the government: increased tax burden will slow economic activity, acceleration of inflation and will require a response by the Central Bank, which has already suspended the easing of monetary policy will be forced to keep the key rate high.
“2019 will be a difficult year from the point of view of adaptation to the changed conditions,” the source added.
Below expectations will be investment in the economy: this year the MAYOR expects growth of 3.5% instead of 4.8%. Forecast for 2019 cut by almost half – from 5.6% to 3.1%.
Industrial production will grow by 1.7% instead of 2.5% in the April version of the forecast. With the current inflation of 2.2% overclocking to 2.9-3.1 percent by year-end, and by the middle of 2019 will reach 4.5%.
Weaker than expected will be a dollar for dollar increased from 58.6 to 61 rubles for the current year and from 58.8 to 62 roubles to the next.
Optimistic, the April forecast did not take into account the tightening of US sanctions, while also keeping in force and other external risks, the source said “Interfax” that “the ongoing fed rate hike and the revision of market expectations on interest rate path”, which “lead to a slowdown in some developing markets.”
The output of the economy out of stagnation have to wait another three years, warns the MAYOR: the growth rate of GDP reached 3% in 2021, then to 6% faster growth in investment.
“Large risks represent the unfolding trade war. It is difficult to predict the scenarios for which they will go, so this is one of the most serious risks,” the official added.