9 APR 2018 will go down in Russian history as “black Monday”: the ruble fell 3.5%, the stock market showed a record 2014 fall. And all because of new American sanctions, which Dmitry Medvedev, Arkady Dvorkovich promises to help affected companies. If we are talking about support is at the highest level, and even discussed the formation of their “offshore” in the Kaliningrad and Primorye, means serious business.
The fact that “the collective West” once again, deciding not to stand on ceremony with Russia, provoked a new round of the cold war, no one is beyond doubt. Especially after the US published “the Kremlin’s list 2.0”. A new Chapter of the Saga of Russia’s relations with its international partners opened. The purpose of our “Western friends” are the same: an updated sanctions list will be used either for blackmail or as a tool to put pressure on Putin. While it worked, and then, and then it is logical to continue to adhere to the chosen tactics.
Don’t need illusions that we say stable… We are still just predictable, and hence the course of the situation to break is hardly possible. Russian officials responsible for international policy of not doing anything to prevent a burgeoning conflict with the West. Just rely on the age-old Russian “Avos” and surrender to chance. Ukraine, where the West Russia is rightly called the aggressor, Syria, Skrypali… the farther into the forest, the more wood. The bottom line — all the reins of power from the West.
It is important that in the negotiation process we do not want and all their “initiatives” consider it vulgar flirtation. In any case, the impression is exactly like that. Forces to solve all of these issues are military or diplomatic way we have. We can’t even now to recapture our seafarers who are held hostage in Ukraine. The country is “tired” and lost its former strength. And into the trap that we were regularly satisfied with the West, we drive ourselves.
Similar situation with the new U.S. sanctions (which, incidentally, may come back to haunt us in the amount of 800 billion rubles, which will be needed for restructuring debts of the companies subjected to).
In “the Kremlin list 2.0” included seven Russian oligarchs, twelve of their affiliated companies. Plus 17 high-ranking officials. Upgrade list was long and systematically prepared. But again we missed precious time because they didn’t want to see a new hurricane approaching from the West. The bureaucratic elite strutted, and tossed the “nuclear club”. Actually, we lost another round, just missing a shot. Swallowed our country and one clearly thought the shot of the United States: Russians-members of the sanctions list recorded in a number of Mexican drug lords. Thus we clearly given to understand that the entire Russian elite for the United States — just a gang of bandits.
New US sanctions for the first time, a direct hit on our money. The people’s money that is in the accounts of the listed state-owned companies. All these assets are now just blocked. The presence in the list of Miller means that we need “Nord Stream — 2” again became at risk, and certainty it was not for a long time. Much States hit by Oleg Deripaska, who owns a significant stake in strategic enterprises (the same GAZ plant in Nizhny Novgorod or “RUSAL”). “RUSAL” in 2 days of trading has lost 40% of its market value.
And on the website of the Department of state and all you can find the press release in which it unabashedly have told the Americans about the “pranks” of our podcasting compatriots. Russian officials guilty of unleashed wars in Ukraine, Syria, cyber attacks on the United States. And the business people allegedly helped the Russian government to do these atrocities, and have relationships with companies that have fallen under Western sanctions. In fact, this is the same “Heil-licly” (eng. “highlylikely” — “with high probability”). The most “Basic proof”, which used British Prime Minister Theresa may, accusing Russia of poisoning Skripal), just on the other side of the Atlantic. In this regard, it seems that Western financial and intelligence agencies have accumulated enough dirt to behave with us so at ease.
And now the Russians, obviously, again will have to hear sentimental appeals to “tighten their belts”. Why? Yes, because you have to prepare for the fact that the disgraced oligarchs and bureaucrats we will have to once again maintain its own ruble. In fact, this has already been stated and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich. The government intends to support the companies that fall under the new sanctions. Now we are told that the government “in advance of discussing these things.” What’s next?
Soon we will announce about the need to unite and stand shoulder to shoulder, to accept a new challenge fate with her head held high and make another feat to support domestic “socially responsible businessman”! How? It’s very simple. The Russians will have to put up with higher taxes (Dvorkovich already, as you know, announced an increase in personal income tax from 13% to 15%), another jump in food prices, rising utility prices, continued subsidies to inefficient state-owned companies, generous state contracts and so on.
When mistakes committed by the government have to pay people, it, soft speaking, incorrect. And judging by the upcoming events (we’re still waiting for the report of the OPCW on Kripalu), the number of people affected by sanctions will only increase. UK may publish your own, “the Kremlin list”, including the Russians, and our company. What we will do in this case? Again you say nothing, proudly go to consolidate, the remaining rattling in my pocket with coppers? Russians have cornered, and soon to “help” them, businessmen who were under sanctions, will have nothing!
But what can we do with such a weak economy? At the moment it is really difficult to give a balanced level of exposure the answer. The volume of the Russian market is too small and, for example, the expulsion from Russia of large transnational companies more impact on us: for corporate giants the losses are small, but for us they mean the loss of vital jobs and “precious” taxes. So the first thing we need to Wake up from sleep on the world diplomatic arena, and begin to take the initiative in the UN security Council, as well as go for the early reforms in the economy. Denationalization of the economy, reducing the tax burden, encouraging high-tech production will help make the economy stable, and the Russian market is attractive for foreign companies. To talk with the West on equal terms will be able only when there you will see that they have something to lose.