To fully upgrade the equipment at the enterprises will need in the best case, 25 years
Investment decline in Russia has made over the previous three years, about 12%. The Ministry of economic development (MED) forecasts that by 2020, this failure will be compensated. The audit chamber (SP) such predictions are not supported, as not seen in the planning of the Ministry Maxim Oreshkin convincing arguments in favor of investment acceleration. The degree of wear of fixed assets in Russia have almost reached 50%, and in some areas even exceeded this threshold.
The verdict of the auditors of the accounts chamber prepared the report on the draft of the new Federal budget disappointing: many of the indicators calculated in the Ministry of economic development and pledged for the next three years, seem unfounded.
For example, as noted in the chamber, in additional needs justification forecast of investment growth.
The MAYOR expects that the dynamics of investment in fixed capital after the recession in 2016, will pass to increase by 4.1% in 2017; 4.7% in 2018; 5.6% in 2019; 5.7% in 2020.
According to the updated data of Rosstat, the investment decline in Russia began in 2013, as described in the initial reports, in 2014. For the period from 2014 to 2016 inclusive investment, a decline of about 12%. If the forecast the MAYOR justified that by 2020, Russia compensates for this failure. However, not all experts believe in such calculations.
“Factors in the growth of investment should be the program of development of small and medium business, factory, project Finance and infrastructure mortgage”, – said, referring to the forecast the mayor, the head of the joint venture Tatyana Golikova at a meeting of the faction “United Russia” in the Duma. “But neither the first nor the second nor third factors that are to become the drivers of economic growth, estimates in the forecast does not contain”, – said Golikova. Alternative analysis shows that the contribution of these factors is difficult to name a decisive one.
Thus, the program of development of small and average business of the government’s plan should be completed in January 2019, reminds Golikova. “And given its small size we do not expect any of its large influence on the growth of investments”, – quotes the head of SP “Prime”.
If to speak about factory of a project financing, as noted Golikova, “from General considerations that can be gleaned in the expert speeches of the Minister of economic development, it can be concluded that the Ministry counts on the contribution of this factor in 2019 and 2020 in the amount of 0.1% of GDP or 100 billion rubles”. In the case of mortgage infrastructure, the economic development Ministry presented separately from the forecast of the expert opinion that the impact of this factor on investment increases in the amount of 1% of GDP, or 1 trillion over a three-year period, according to SP.
“The fact of the availability of financial resources is not enough to front the expansion of investment activity of the enterprises of the private sector”, – noticed by the auditors. Hopes to attract additional credit resources too little. The lending activities may be adversely affected by the reluctance of banks to contact high-risk borrowers, and changeable external environment.
At the same time, as noticed by specialists, the growth of investments in main capital is a necessary condition for the renewal of fixed assets. “Since 2013, the slowdown in the growth of fixed assets on the background of the continuing high rate of wear, formed in 2016 in the economy of 48.7%”, – stated in the conclusion of the accounting chamber. The auditors note that since 2001, the degree of wear of fixed assets consistently above 40% with a tendency to growth.
“In 2016 compared to 2015, the degree of depreciation of fixed assets increased in all economic activities, except fisheries and aquaculture. And such types, as mining, health care and social services, transport and communication, the degree of wear has exceeded 55%”, – said in the materials of the joint venture.
The process of updating the basic production assets in 2013 is slowing down, say the auditors. As they report, “the rate of renewal of fixed capital (at constant prices) in 2016, decreased to 3.7% after 3.9% in 2015. retirement rate of fixed assets in 2016 compared to the previous year has not changed and amounted to 1%… Since 2006 it does not exceed 1%”. Renewal coefficient – the ratio of fixed assets enacted during the year, the total value of the asset at the end of the year. Retirement rate – the ratio of the liquidated during the year fixed assets to total assets at the beginning of the year.
It seems that the SP report does not take into account the data revision by Rosstat, because now on the official website of the statistical office other numbers: in 2016, the rate was 4.4 percent, the retirement rate is 0.8%.
The most difficult situation in education and health. “Despite the high degree of wear (in 2016 – 49,4% and 56.9%, respectively), the rate of renewal is low and during the last three years is constantly decreasing”, – says in the conclusion of the joint venture. According to Rosstat, in 2016, the rate of renewal funds in education amounted to 2.5%, health by 2.2%.
When the rate of renewal every year is 4%, this means that complete replacement of the old fixed capital (equipment, structures, etc.) will need 25 years. Accordingly, the indicator 3% extends the refresh period to 33 years, and 2% – up to 50 years.
Associate Professor, Russian economic University. Plekhanov Vladimir Kolmakov said, “NEZAVISIMAYA Gazeta” that the average “hides the existing variation degrees of wear across the regions and individual enterprises.” “Part-time percentage of capacity utilization for a number of activities partially reduces tension, however, this is only an excuse and not economically sound strategy,” he said.
In addition, the data of Rosstat, according to Kolmakov, do not allow to assess the quality of the updates. “If we are taking out of operation of cutting machine to 1970 and replaced it with the same “fresh”, can you talk about the upgrade? No, of course not,” says Kolmakov. Therefore, the renewal and modernization – is not synonymous.
Although, as the expert says, for example, agriculture is currently still the leaders, and for updating and modernization. Signs of technological updates can be found in the manufacturing sector. But the problem is that often replacement occurs on foreign technology and equipment, to the expert commentary.
According to first Vice-President of the Russian Union of engineers Ivan Andrievsky, “in regard to the military-industrial complex, nuclear industry, oil and gas, we are moving to the forefront.” “But in many other industrial areas, we are lagging behind,” he says. The expert adds that this leads in particular to risks of accidents.
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