The Central Bank has doubled the forecast of capital outflow

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ЦБ удвоил прогноз оттока капитала

The outflow of capital from Russia in the next two years will significantly exceed the original forecast, told a press conference on Friday the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina.

If oil prices remain at close to current levels, and on average, each barrel of Russian Urals will be sold abroad at $ 65, the private sector of the country before the end of the year will be exported 28 billion, predicts the regulator.

In the baseline scenario, which is designed with oil a little more expensive than 60, the amount of less than 19 billion dollars. But still it is on the $ 3 billion in excess of what the Central Bank was expecting in December, and almost double the forecast made in autumn (10 billion dollars).

The baseline forecast for 2019, the year doubled from 8 to 15 billion dollars. If the oil will cost $ 65, the amount jumps to 3.5 times – up to $ 28 billion.

 

In two years, the Central Bank expects export 34 billion dollars, while in September the baseline scenario has been laid no more than 18 billion.

The outflow increases, because there is something to export: rising oil revenues, explains the regulator’s Report on monetary policy.

If in 2016, at the peak of oil collapse, Russia has received from the export of only 282 billion, this year, it will be nearly 400. 63% is oil and gas money, another 10.5% is selling to overseas metals 5,4% – fertilizers, 3,2% – timber.

The record low in 10 years, the forecast of the outflow was kept on the assumption that oil prices will fall to $ 40 per barrel, explains the regulator.

But the deal OPEC and rising demand in the world economy have changed the balance of power: the new baseline is $ 61 for the Urals this year with a drop to 55 in the next and 50 next year.

In January-February, when oil abroad sold to average $ 66 per barrel and gas exports reached a historical record due to unusually cold weather in the EU, the private sector was exported 9.8 billion dollars. The outflow jumped 2.2 times in two months fulfilled which the Bank gave for the year.

If last year’s capital went through banks who need to extinguish the external debt, now to the outflow joined the Corporation, specifies the chief economist of Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova: funds flow on the acquisition of foreign assets.

The purchase of Russian assets by non-residents can be reduced, warned in turn Nabiullina.

Toughening of monetary policy of the fed and other leading Central banks “would lead to the revision of the premiums for the urgency and risk, as well as to a possible revaluation up of neutral interest rates abroad, this may reduce the attractiveness of investments in emerging markets, which include Russia”, – said the head of the Central Bank.

At the same time, she said, “the normalization of monetary policy in the US and the Eurozone could happen faster than is now expected by market participants, and revision of market expectations can be accompanied by volatility spikes, as in February of this year.”

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