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MOSCOW, 5 Dec – RIA Novosti. Further improvement of medicine will not increase the life expectancy indefinitely – the limit of age of the person, most likely, is about 100 years at which mortality increases sharply irrespective of all external factors, say scientists in an article published in the journal Nature.
The typical duration of human life is not some constant value before the birth of civilization, she was between 20 to 30 years and then rose steadily with the development of science and medicine. Today people live more than 60 years in most countries of the world, and over 80 years in Japan and in other developed countries with high quality of life and excellent medicine.
Yang Vig (Jan Vijg) and his colleagues from the University of new York(USA), like many other scientists, wondered how long you can continue this process, and is there a maximum age at which people begin to die inevitably, despite all the advances in medicine and technology.
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As the researchers note, this idea is true for most animals almost all mammals live to a certain age. His step over the extremely small number of individuals, most of which dies a few years after reaching and crossing this “limit of life”. With man the situation is more complicated, as there is evidence in favor and against this hypothesis.
To check whether so it actually, Wig and his colleagues invented an original technique of the analysis of mortality data, which were collected over the last hundred years. They were not interested in the actual number of deaths of people of a certain age, and that where the most notable decline in the number of deaths of people when comparing data in earlier and later years.
If the limit of life, this “hump of survival,” as it is called by scientists, is smoothly and continuously move in the direction of a more advanced age. If it exists, the “hump” to stop at a certain point and will not move on.
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Following this idea, a group of Viga analysed has varied mortality in France, Japan, USA and UK in the last 40 years, paying particular attention to the age at which died the longest-living people in those States.
Their analysis showed that “the hump of survival” is gradually moving in the direction of more Mature years until the mid-1980s, after which growth ceased. In turn, the maximum age of persons dying in a particular year, not only has not increased, but has fallen markedly in the last 20 years after the death of the oldest inhabitant of the planet, Jeanne calment, died aged 122 years in 1997.
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Overall, scientists estimate the annual probability that at least one person will reach the age of 125 years and then die, 1 chance out of 10,000 attempts.
Such a low probability, as noted, Wig and his colleagues, suggests that the limit of human life exists and that it is approximately equal, as shown by their calculations, a hundred years. We can say that humanity has already reached its limit, to cross which it alone will not without artificial intervention in livelihoods.
“Further progress in the fight against disease is likely to increase life expectancy, but not maximum length of human life. It is possible that future breakthroughs in medicine will prolong human life beyond these limits, but they have to suppress or overcome the influence of many genetic factors, measure our time on Earth. It is possible that the resources we now spend on prolonging life, should be used for renewing health – how long older people stay in good health,” explains Vig.
Does this mean that there is a genetic program of aging, programmed by evolution? The authors note that this outcome is unlikely, as our ancestors and other animals have died and are dying much earlier than old age. It makes a similar “clockwork” is meaningless, the scientists conclude.