A week before the election of the new President of Kyrgyzstan in the country’s emerging unpredictable political events. The current leader Almazbek Atambayev has cancelled his trip to Sochi for a meeting of the Council of heads of CIS States in connection with information about upcoming in the Republic of the riots, reports TASS. Also the reason may be the reluctance of the state to meet with Nursultan Nazarbayev, with whom he had a correspondence conflict.
Last weekend Atambayev criticized the leadership of Kazakhstan. He accused Nazarbayev of trying to influence the choice of the Kyrgyz people, and also hinted at the need for regime change in Kazakhstan. A disagreement between two key allies in the EEU can add Russia’s problems in Central Asian region.
According to Atambayev, Astana is trying to impose on the people of Kyrgyzstan advantageous to the candidate associated with the clan ousted in 2010 as a result of the revolution, President Bakiyev. “They love Bakiyev. Bakieva still carried out in Kazakhstan holidays. I even the most senior people of Kazakhstan heard Bakieva rightly so, that they shot people,” — said the politician.
The head of Kyrgyzstan criticized earlier expressed the wish to elect Nazarbayev to Kyrgyzstan young President. “We have the oldest candidate 20 years younger Nazarbayev. And I for 16 years. And who needs a young President? Us or Kazakhstan?” — said Atambayev. Given the inevitability of a political “menu” of such kind in Kazakhstan note — an explicit call for political change from the neighbors.
Atambayev acknowledged that in Kazakhstan live much richer than in Kyrgyzstan, however, pensions and rates in both countries differ slightly. The reason for this, according to the Kyrgyz leader, theft and enrichment of Kazakhstan’s oligarchs, while in Kyrgyzstan the government is “fair”. Not in forces to take out the “bad example” of Bishkek, Astana and trying to interfere in the political process at the neighbors.
Despite the overall tough tone, the Kyrgyz leader tried to soften their criticism of neighbors, but it turned out inconclusive. “The Kazakhs are our brothers, we know the story. Kazakhs — it is we who 500 years ago set the Sultan Chingizid and, it seems, still they ruled by Genghis Khan, not the Kazakhs,” concluded Atambayev.
The reason for the dramatic speech of the President of Kyrgyzstan could be the death on 7 October in the accident Deputy Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan Temir Djumakadyrov who went to the city of Talas to check the readiness of polling stations. “He was one of my best students and pupils, — said the President. — He was 38 years old. It was the man in the future, I saw one of the leaders of the country.”
Interestingly, his speech Atambayev said in Russian, however, after allegations against Nazarbayev and his political opponents, passed in the Kyrgyz language. It is obvious that the first half of his speech was meant for a wider audience than only the people of Kyrgyzstan. His goal he achieved — and in Moscow and in Astana the move was seen.
Kazakhstan’s foreign Ministry called the words of Atambayev’s unacceptable, irresponsible, provocative and false, and expressed “strong protest.” Official Russian reaction yet, but it is obvious that such an emotional conflict between two leaders of the member States cannot be indifferent to Moscow.
Head of Department of Central Asia and Kazakhstan of Institute of the CIS countries, member of the Expert Council of the state Duma of the Russian Federation Andrey Grozin sees the dispute of the two presidents is a consequence of the historically paternalistic attitude of Kazakhstan to its southern neighbor.
For the last six months Almazbek Atambayev (the President — ed.) twice or thrice we made quite a poignant remarks about their Northern neighbors. Last aggravation, of course, due to the fact that Bishkek, the perceived actions of Astana, as a direct interference in the election process. We are talking about a recent meeting with Nazarbayev one of the potential winners of the forthcoming elections Omurbek by baranovym. Kyrgyzstan considered that Kazakhstan wants to push his candidacy. Hence such a nervous reaction.
And this is not unfounded, because the meeting with Nazarbayev Babanov, photo shoot, where they’re holding hands, will bring the Kyrgyz policies of at least 3-4% more votes. Because the authority Nazarbayev in Kyrgyz society is quite high. To his opinion prislushivayutsya. And Babanov still goes to the polls is not from the commands of the state, and from competing groups. Although I would not say that this is in direct opposition, but it is other people with a different agenda, a different vision of the future of Kyrgyzstan.
In addition, Atambayev generally an emotional person, start with a half turn. It has long been known in Kyrgyzstan and beyond. Struck person. Happen.
“SP”: — There is all this coincided with the death of Deputy Prime Minister Temir Djumakadyrov. Atambayev would have linked this tragedy and the issue of elections…
— It is rather strange. It is necessary to have a very rich imagination to associate these things. It was night, the driving conditions Here… just working the stereotype. When Vice-Premier is killed in a collision with KAMAZ, the former Soviet Union often have conspiracy theories. Jumakadyrov he was not a candidate, although going to campaign for one of the candidates Sooronbay Zheenbekov.
“SP”: — Why Kazakhstan your protege on a post of the President of Kyrgyzstan?
— There are objective interests. Kyrgyzstan is considered part of the business community of Kazakhstan as a promising market. Also there is implemented a number of Kazakhstan’s economic projects with the food industry, with the banking sector, etc.
In General, Kazakhstan traditionally is trying to dominate in the economic sector of Kyrgyzstan. So it was under Akayev, and Bakiyev, and when Atambaeva. Because Kazakhstan is a regional economic leader and because Kyrgyzstan since the Soviet time is perceived even as a “little brother” of Kazakhstan.
These views are widespread not only in the elite of Kazakhstan, but also in society. Kyrgyzstan is seen as the shiftless relative, which is necessary to support, specify, what to do, etc. While looking in a similar way, for example, in Uzbekistan in Kazakhstan and in my head no one will come. Historically.
When Kazakhstan was swimming in oil money, it was widely believed that here, the neighbors had no luck with the resources, guidance, it would be necessary to support them. Then the situation has changed, but the sentiments are still alive. In Kyrgyzstan know this, and it leads to attempts to prove that they are no worse, and the Kazakhs were just lucky with oil. To prove that they are “themselves with a mustache”.
Besides, Atambayev goes, he’s not running in this election, and fears that it will be called the “lame duck” and watch respectively. Therefore, to maintain the image need to say something hard, bright. At the same time to support the man who is nominated from the team as a replacement. Foreign policy issues that are better than domestic. Much success in the economy there, and to “outdo the Northern elders”.
“SP”: — Russia from this “market” is not fun…
— Of course, we cannot please. Moscow as a guarantor of stability in Central Asian region and as a guarantor of the functioning of the Eurasian economic Union, which includes Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, and as a core Treaty of the CSTO, where they also included should be the reconciling party. And here the conflict may go so far that we may be on someone’s side. That they should not do that.
Still, the 15 October elections, it is very likely that there will be a second round, and then, perhaps, there will be even greater polarization. Up to some action. So now Russia needs to use all formal and informal levers to reduce the degree of emotional rhetoric on both sides.
“SP”: — we Have now powerful economic interests in Kyrgyzstan…
— Yes, “Gazprom” over the past five years have invested in Kyrgyzstan over a billion dollars, equivalent to one third of the national debt of this country. That’s a lot. Gazprom has a very ambitious program of gasification of the country. It is expected to increase the level of gasification of Kyrgyzstan from the current 22-23% to at least 60%. In contrast to the second major joint project of Bishkek — the gold with the Canadians, the project of “Gazprom” not only brings cash but upgrading the country’s infrastructure that much more important.
Joining the EEU Kyrgyzstan has given the chance to move from the trading model of the economy, when the country was essentially a hub for the transit of Chinese goods, to a full model of the economy developed processing industry. And thanks to this project, “Gazprom”, and due to the possibility of entering the common market of the EEU. But Kazakhstan the interests of Bishkek should also be considered.
By the way, Kazakhstan allocated gratuitously to the neighbors quite a significant amount. For example, the needs of the customs in this year were directed millions of grant funds. Although shorter than highlights of Russia, but Belarus and Armenia generally do not allocate. Kazakhstan is the second largest donor of Kyrgyzstan and to cut a bough on which sit, for the President of this country is very short-sighted.
In turn, the employee of sector of Central Asia RISS Ivan Ippolitov believe that disputants will be able to slip through a difficult time in bilateral relations.
— That the conflict between the leaders of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan there is. Mutual contradiction between the two presidents openly manifested more than once, but this worsening was particularly harsh. Demonstrative reception by President Nazarbayev presidential candidate of Kyrgyzstan Omurbek Babanov, about what the scandal was considered in Bishkek as an extreme step.
He showed that Kazakhstan is not neutral in this situation and gave rise to Bishkek to Astana blame that it directly intervenes in the Kyrgyz electoral Affairs. In principle, such a reaction was easily predictable. The political situation in Kyrgyzstan during the election period particularly vulnerable to outside influence. From the point of view of political logic, the charge state can be understood.
For the Kazakh authorities to increase their influence in Kyrgyzstan is interested in political, image building and in economic terms. The desire of Astana to strengthen its influence on its southern neighbor mentioned Kyrgyz experts. In the current situation and possible influence of personal factors. Taking and by showering compliments Babanov, the President of Kazakhstan has made tangible attack against the state, openly makes a bid for another candidate Sooronbai Zheenbekov.
“SP”: — Russia is not still, after all, our allies in the EEU…
Considering how fragile a thing peace and good neighborly relations in such a complex region as Central Asia, in Russia there is nothing good in the deterioration of relations between the two countries linked to us by many ties, of the fraternal peoples. Moreover, Russia equally interested in good relations with both of them. You have to understand that now the time is very delicate. So sharp and ill-considered steps in this situation completely inappropriate.
Ultimately, the development of the conflict is unprofitable to both parties. If destabilized the situation in Kyrgyzstan, which is not completely excluded, because we have already seen this, Kazakhstan will suffer from this loss. In the end, the Kazakh government can blame the fact that they contributed to inciting political passions of their neighbors.
But if the conflict continues to deepen, Russia will have to use its diplomatic resources and the rights of a mediator to assist the parties to reconcile. All the same “pots” for not beating completely and most likely Bishkek and Astana will be able to resolve the conflict.