“Sanctions against Russia will not cancel even trump”

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Important decision the new US President will still have to pass through Congress, noted historian and American studies Ivan kurilla.

«Санкции против России не отменит даже Трамп»
The intrigue in the presidential elections in the United States.© Photo from the personal archive of Ivan Kurilla

Why is too early to speak about the final success of the leaders of the election race in the U.S., which explains the phenomenon of Donald trump and Bernie Sanders, as well as should Russia expect a warming of relations with States, in an interview to “Rosbalt” was told by the Professor of the European University in St. Petersburg Ivan kurilla.

— Once the primaries have been quite a landslide victory, Hillary Clinton, and relatively confident — Donald Trump. Can we assume that Democrats and Republicans are undecided?

— The Democrats, on the one hand, all clear. I don’t know what needs to happen to Hillary Clinton is not nominated as a candidate for the U.S. presidency from the Democratic party. But, at the same time, in many States it continues to beat Sanders some fraction of a percent. Usually by mid-March it becomes definitively clear, who exactly led the race, and voters EN masse are starting to support that candidate. That Sanders still continue to vote as many people, means there is a split among the Democrats. This means that quite many do not want to see Clinton as President, and it’s unclear whether they will be ready in November to vote for the former first lady of the country.

As for the Republicans, it is about confident edge Donald trump, I would argue. 15 March “played out” electoral votes, including Florida and Ohio. They belong to the so-called “fluctuating States”, which very often play a crucial role in the victory of one of candidates. If the representative of Republicans or Democrats loses the primaries in such an important state, then it is a serious challenge to its ability to win major elections. In Florida, trump won, but in Ohio lost — there the victory was won by the Governor of the state, John following keysik (he is, however, likely to become a presidential candidate already almost there).

So trump is still not so clear. Besides, the Senator from Florida Marco Rubio, who lost in his native state, withdrew his candidacy. Thus he increased the chances of the main opponent of trump, Ted Cruz. The gap in votes between them while not critical, the struggle will continue. And considering mobilization among members of the Republican party against trump, there may be surprises.

— By the way, it really psysteme Donald trump, as they say?

He, of course, is not the man in the street. But trump has never really engaged in politics and did not make a career inside the Republican party, unlike the other candidates. Moreover, Democrats have supported it longer than the Republicans. Trump whole life has built the image of an eccentric rich man. He is the representative of the business elite. In the political elite, those groups that have always fought for power, it is absolutely not inscribed.

— What trump had often voted for Democrats, is able to create problems for his election campaign?

 

USA in the hands of multi-party democracy

 

— This can be a plus in the eyes of the electorate, but this is an obvious disadvantage in the eyes of all the system politicians. Therefore, in particular, the Republicans and unhappy with them. It is absolutely unclear which program he will conduct and how can harm the long-term interests of the Republican party, should he become President. Trump raises concerns for its unpredictability. There is a high probability that he would scare some of the centrists and moderate voters. So if trump wins the Republican primary, the Republican party may suffer a crushing defeat in November. This was the case in 1964, when the Republican party in the presidential election participated Barry Goldwater, simply scare voters because of his radical pre-election statements.

— By the way, some experts drew attention to the fact that at the last debate trump was acting more reserved, less abused. Does it mean that it changes the strategy and tries to win the votes of more moderate voters?

I think he understands that he begin to use his own expression. Trump now formed a large team of advisers who say that he needs to fix.

— Trump and Sanders — two extremely different from each other candidate. Perhaps, in some degree, have in common only one thing: both described as populist. On the European political field such figures are already relatively long. But in the U.S., at least in the elections at the national level, for the first time in many decades. Why has this happened now?

— Actually, the word “populism” has come from the US — there in the late nineteenth century Populist party, many of which were borrowed later policy. This party emerged during the crisis that followed the Civil war. In the era of the great depression the populists also had the support of the electorate.

But the last decade, the American two-party system blocked such nominations. Now it seems to have come to some new crisis. Maybe it is not very noticeable in the socio-economic sphere; rather, it is a cultural crisis. But this year’s campaign speaks of its presence. American political scientists now claim that one of the results of these elections will be a disappointment to a significant number of voters in their parties.

 

“Trump’s hard to call a politician”

 

For example, the success of trump suggests that people are dissatisfied with the system policies, and therefore vote for non-systemic. To some extent this support is due to fatigue right and the conservative Republicans from the liberal agenda. Including, against political correctness. No wonder trump on her attacks. Although, at the same time, this is the reason why the establishment is afraid of trump: his statements have already lead to clashes on the streets. And if he becomes President, you can escalate some of the “diseases” of American society — including the problem of race relations. Therefore, a significant portion of voters would absolutely refuse to vote for it.

The Democrats have the symbol of the crisis — the phenomenon of Bernie Sanders.

— In your opinion, in the future populist candidates like trump and Sanders will be an integral part of political life in the US — as politicians such as marine Le Pen or Alexis Tsipras becoming the standard for many European countries?

If trump have in common and something you mentioned European politicians is the tendency to authoritarianism. But the American political system was originally designed to restrain people with authoritarian manners. In Europe institutional checks less (but more cultural). Periodically these candidates in the U.S., of course, will appear. Maybe in 15 or 20 years, maybe already at the next election. But this does not mean that the States entered the period of such politicians. I think one of the lessons of the current election campaign is that the American establishment will start to prepare for the selection of candidates.

— Assume that Donald trump still win the election. Is there any chance that at least some campaign promises that bring him votes, it will be possible to implement? For example, a sharp tightening of immigration policies or raising tariff barriers against Chinese goods…

If trump become President, from his rhetoric, he certainly will not refuse. However, to adopt corresponding laws will be much harder. As I said, the entire American political system is built on checks. The task of democracy is not to elect the best. The main thing — to prevent the worst, if it is selected, have caused too much damage.

Although trump in the least degree bound by these checks and balances. He is not an institutional person and do not owe their nomination. In the framework of its powers, it can take a pretty sharp decision. But the problems which you mentioned in your question, would need the support of Congress. And here already there will be great difficulty.

— In Russia, interest in the American elections. But should we expect that the change in the White house will bring any change in relations between the two countries?

 

Our leaders are keeping pace with the West

 

— In foreign policy an American President is limited. In this regard, the trump can be President Putin of the most successful partner. That is less than the system the US President izberete, the more may change the foreign policy, including U.S.-Russian relations. But to lift the sanctions against Russia, this President still can’t, even if they decide to do. Because this decision, again, would have to go via Congress. The change might only be on a personal level. But obviously, there is still the problem of Crimea and Ukraine, serious changes will not have to wait.

From this perspective, trump is indeed the most preferred option for the Kremlin. But many still predict a Clinton victory. Better to prepare for the dialogue with her?

— I think, in the Kremlin know that in the U.S. too difficult to predict the outcome of elections. So, I guess they are preparing to deal with all candidates who are still involved in the race. Although it seems to me that there are still very few think about what are the policies of President Ted Cruz.

Interviewed By Tatiana Khruleva

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