Russia will have to sacrifice sovereignty

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Россия вынуждена будет жертвовать суверенитетом

Most of the noise in connection with the message to the Federal Assembly of Russia called parted Vladimir Putin’s achievements in the sphere of military-industrial complex. However, even the strongest army is not enough for the country to remain a great power. The President briefly mentioned this. According to him, the coming years will be decisive for the future of the country. “We are talking about the development of technology. The gap in this area is unacceptable”, — said the head of state.

According to him, the technological gap bears the risk of loss of sovereignty. “We expect a strong response. And we are ready to give an answer” — said Putin.

What a strong answer can there be? Until now, the projects like “innovation centers” and the Russian “silicon valley” ended with, essentially, nothing. Even in such a traditionally advanced from the Soviet era in the sector as the space industry, according to many experts, the growing backlog.

The most important Russian aviation industry, too, can boast of the latest achievements. As in “Dry Superjet” — the only civil aircraft that is issued by the Russian aviation industry in relatively large quantities, there is practically no domestic avionics.

Now all this imposed Western sanctions. So where do we get the technological breakthrough, which was mentioned by the President?

— The modern world has become so complex that maintaining an advanced technological level of the country or Union of countries requires a certain amount of economic market and a considerable population, — says the Director of the historical research Foundation “the Foundation” Alexey Anpilogov. The easiest indicator of the size of the economy, despite the fact that his much criticized economists is GDP. The best settings have not yet invented. All others, like “the level of peace of mind,” a little from the evil one.

And then modern calculations show that in order to keep the technological world championship, you need to have a market that involves at least half a billion people. Such markets are the US, EU and China. These public education, as we have seen, and are leading in terms of technology. The rest of the country, one way or another, dependent on the three global projects. The same Japan that in the 20th century, still unable to take the lead with its hundred million population, in the late 80-ies of the last century began to take. And all attempts of the Japanese to create the computers of the fifth generation ended with the fact that in the end they were created in the United States.

Of course, Vladimir Putin is well aware that in some areas Russia continues to maintain technological leadership. This is military technology and nuclear industry. Partly we keep the leading position in the space industry. But there is accumulating backlog. There are a dozen less significant areas where our technological gap is not so great.

Otherwise, we do not have enough market volume, human resources. Even if the 145 million Russian citizens to increase the population of Belarus and Kazakhstan, we hardly scraped 200 million people. This is not enough. Therefore, Putin’s statement about the danger of technological backwardness, partly the voice of one crying in the wilderness. Russia does not have now the necessary market volume and the number of citizens in order to ensure technological competition with China, the EU and the USA.

“SP”: — That is, we are doomed to lag?

— Recipe for overcoming — known. At the time, they took advantage of the European countries that started with “Union of coal and steel”. Subsequently, as we know, it is from this unification of France and Germany grew the European Union.

Individually neither one of the European countries in the second half of the 20th century could not create a sovereign and an advanced economy. You may recall fruitless attempts of Margaret Thatcher and General de Gaulle. That is, countries competing for technological leadership, it is necessary to create their own unions, their own chain of economic cooperation.

Russia has a lot of possibilities for a little Union — China or perhaps India. However, India while the troubled partner, as a relatively small part of its huge population can be classified as economically active. The rest of the Indians live below the poverty line and are engaged in low productivity work.

China, of course, the preferred ally. But we must understand that we can create a Russian-Chinese Alliance, Chinese and Russian. Russia in this Union will be the second.

“SP”: — And without an Alliance with China…

— We will continue to lag technologically in most areas. However, in my opinion, there is nothing irreparable. While the country has the opportunity to defend themselves. Our task-at least for the next decade or to preserve those Islands of good development that we have now.

“SP”: — However, Vladimir Putin just sees threat to sovereignty in the technological gap.

— Mentioned European countries, for example, France has lost its sovereignty by the road to the European Union. If we consider sovereignty as a super-value -of course, the President is right. But, I do not exclude that circumstances will arise so that we would be forced gradually to cede its sovereignty in the course of the 21st century. And we need to make it so that a political retreat would best meet our economic interests. Most importantly, as I have said, to keep key positions — defense, energy. You must make every effort to develop the aviation industry, because when our spaces is a key field.

“SP”: — what we will have to sacrifice sovereignty in the event of such an Alliance with China?

— China may ask exclusive conditions in the context of the notorious agreements on section of production. Talking about mining.

He also wants us favorable concessions in order to pave through Russia part of the New silk road. In the modern world the loss of sovereignty is primarily of an economic nature. To some extent, this happened in our aviation industry. Yes, we have resumed production of its civil aircraft, but most of the avionics are already produced in the West.

As for China, the sacrificing one, of course, we should demand payment in something else. In the same access to the Chinese high technology that will inevitably appear.

I personally believe that China is quite ready for Chinese-Russian Union. It is their strategic aim is to create a circle of friends. However, Russia with its attempts until recently to please both the West and the East gives Beijing the impression of an unreliable ally. At that time, in the next decades, the main global confrontation will happen between the US and China.

“SP”: — If we need an economic Union, covering the country with a total population of at least half a billion people, why don’t we strengthen the integration efforts in the post-Soviet space? If “fasten” to it Iran, Syria, just get close to the required population.

— Unfortunately, our elite is not showing decisiveness in defending national interests. When in 2014 it was possible to return at least half of Ukraine in the Russian sphere of influence, this was not done.

We have a large part of the elite still thinks in terms that Russia is a country which is only needed in order to extract hydrocarbons and other minerals. Something like Canada. The only problem is that Russia has a population of almost 150 million people, not 36 million in Canada.

The history of the last quarter century has shown that we “live pipe” is impossible. A Russian elite for the most part still wants to live with pipes.

Of course, the creation of an economic Union with most of the former Soviet republics is what suggests itself when we were talking about the prospects of preserving Russia as a great, technologically advanced nation. This line was completely torpedoed after the events of 2014, when the Russian elite is afraid to take responsibility for the new Russia.

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