Russia – the only reliable supplier of gas to China

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One of the noticeable trends of the market of hydrocarbons is the desire of the participating countries to reduce the threat to our ecology, without reducing energy consumption. This means that over time an increasing preference for more “clean” energy.

The greatest damage to the environment, according to experts, causes the burning of coal, which is one of the important factors of global warming. In addition, the burning of coal in the atmosphere gets a large number of substances hazardous to human health. Currently, coal accounts for 30% of the total volume of hydrocarbons consumed by mankind. In reducing the production and consumption of this fossil see is a first important step to preserve the ecology of the planet.

Coal – quality source of energy, cheaper oil and gas. He will long be of great value in the Chinese industry and energy. However in recent years, China has faced such serious environmental problems that are determined to reduce the percentage of coal use. This measure is part of a comprehensive programme for the protection of the environment, developed by the Chinese authorities in 2013, the Process will take many years, but it is already running. By 2017 in the most industrialized parts of China plans to reduce coal use by 85 million tons, and by 2020, the percentage of coal in the Chinese energy sector should be reduced from the current 63% to 56%.

One way to achieve this is the increased use of natural gas. The share of natural gas in the energy sector, China is expected to increase by 2020 from 8% to 12%.

China itself is a gas producer, however, since 2007, consumption began to exceed production. For 2015 in China was produced 132 billion cubic meters of gas and consumed about 190 billion cubic meters. Nedostacha almost 60 billion cubic meters was transported from abroad via pipelines and by tankers in the form of LNG.

Both ways have their drawbacks. Now, when escalated the confrontation between China and the United States for influence in the Asia Pacific region, the opponents of China may use its gas channels as levers for impact.

Despite the fact that since 2014 China is the world’s third largest consumer of LNG, after Japan and South Korea, most of China gets gas piped from Central Asia and Myanmar. From Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), China gets the gas pipeline “Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China”, which has been successfully operating since 2009

The main supplier of pipeline gas (and gas) for China is Turkmenistan. 2015 China bought about 35 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas, which accounted for more than half of Chinese gas imports. It should be remembered that after the gas from Turkmenistan refused to buy Gazprom, China became the main buyer and therefore can dictate the price.

It would seem that the gas pipeline “Turkmenistan-China” – an ideal source of gas for China, but it has a major flaw. The pipeline passes through several States which in recent years was the place of excitement. Moreover, in China it goes through the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region, known for its separatist sentiment. In case of violation of stability in the region, all the gas supplies to China from Central Asia can be threatened.

Then China will still have a pipeline from Myanmar, however, her own reserves of gas are not very large. A considerable part of gas coming to China through this pipeline brought by tankers from the middle East to Myanmar ports and Myanmar serves only as a transit country.

That is, if the gas pipeline “Turkmenistan-China” something’s going to happen, the gas China will get much less and pay much more.

Another way to deliver gas to China by sea in the form of LNG. The main suppliers of LNG to China are Qatar, Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. This method of gas delivery is much more expensive, slower, and most importantly, riskier. First, the transport of gas in liquefied form on ships at sea has its risks, even if no one interferes especially. And most importantly, in case of any conflict sea route can be overridden. To stop the supply of the main supplier of LNG to China – Qatar, enough to block the narrow Strait of Hormuz. Do not forget about the Strait of Malacca – the “Achilles ‘ heel” of China. These two Straits are the two main vulnerable points of the supply routes of hydrocarbons from the Middle East to China, Japan, South Korea. To cut this path and not depend on the Strait of Malacca, China has made a great effort to establish transit through Myanmar. However, this small country a possible Chinese enemies can also try to block off the sea.

Then the main supplier of LNG to China could become Australia. Actually, it is just this claim. According to the statement of Australian Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, made them in spring of 2016, 2020, Australia will increase LNG exports to 75 million tons. The main market should be China, Japan and South Korea.

But count on Australia to China also accounts with caution. After all, Australia’s long – standing partner and ally of the United States. She, like US, concerned about the rise of China and its influence in the Asia Pacific region and opposes the activities of China in the East China and South China seas. Australia participates in joint exercises, the U.S. Navy, India and Japan “Malabar” and cooperated with America in a variety of other issues. Thus, in case of further deterioration of relations between China and the United States, the delivery of Australian gas to China can also be called into question.

It is possible to conclude the following: the sources from which China receives gas are not secure. All deliveries may be in jeopardy in case of conflicts and social upheaval.

To ensure yourself to this energy resource as natural gas, China needs to diversify its imports. The best partner for China with territorial point of view, is Russia. Perhaps this is the only country from which China can obtain the energy in large quantities directly, without transit via other countries. The agreement on gas supplies from Russia to China for 30 years was signed in the spring of 2014 For these purposes it was decided to build the gas pipeline “Power of Siberia”, which should start work in 2019, as well as the Power of Siberia-2″.

Given the difficult environment in the Asia Pacific region and challenging China’s relations with other countries, the importance of Russian energy for him in the coming years can be many times increase as the value of Russian-Chinese relations in General.

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