Tehran could not recover from amazement. “Strategic partnership” between Russia and Iran is fading away, and Moscow ends its short-lived honeymoon with Tehran. Russian special representative on Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev offered Iran, Hezbollah, and others “occupying” Syria countries to leave its territory since the peace process began.
Noteworthy are the following:
The requirement for Iran to leave Syria was put forward on 9 may, when Netanyahu once again came to Russia and the day after trump ripped a nuclear deal with Iran.
Why suddenly Iran, which has invited Assad put on a par with countries illegally invaded Syria?
If Bashar al-Assad is the head of the sovereign government of Syria, why he does not formulate this request?
At the same time Moscow says that it will supply missile systems s-300 to Syria, despite the fact that after April 14 the US and its allies attacked Syria, she said that “first time free” will supply systems to Damascus, seeing it as their “moral obligation”. And now, when Israel inflicts constant attacks on Syria, Moscow says that Damascus does not need these anti-aircraft missiles!
Russia has not condemned the 150 air raids by Israel against Syria, including attacks on Pro-Iranian forces, applied in December, February, April and may. Based on the statements of both countries, we can draw the following conclusions:
The cost of life-preserving Assad and his stay in power and an end to Israeli strikes on Syria is equal to the departure of Iran from that country.
The Arab States of the Persian Gulf also normalize its relations with Syria and will allocate funds for its restoration.
Putin has achieved his objectives in Syria, and Israel will be respected, if Iran will go.
Israeli air strikes on Syria under the pretext of the Iranian presence is detrimental to the Syrian military infrastructure.
Care of Iran became the main demand of Assad’s opponents (supervised by the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey), who arrived for the peace conference in Sochi. Their second requirement (Assad’s resignation) will also be satisfied if they will be patient: once Iran withdraws from Syria, the President will have to agree on a draft Constitution for Syria, developed by Russia, according to which the President is elected by Parliament, not by direct vote.
Russia needs a stable middle East, Netanyahu and the regime more stable. Whenever he strikes on the Gaza strip, Syria or Lebanon, it thereby promotes the growth of its popularity. What he has achieved from the USA transfer their embassies to Jerusalem, and the release of the Iranian nuclear deal and Israel’s victory at Eurovision, made by Netanyahu a national hero.
The Putin factor: no one in the Kremlin did not Express such sympathy for Israel as he is. The USSR broke off diplomatic relations with tel Aviv after the 1967 war, and the President of the Russian Federation was adopted on 9 may Netanyahu as the guest of honor (in the background of the massacre against the Palestinians) on the celebrations to mark the 73 th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany. This sympathy is mutual. In 2014, Israel did not support UN resolution condemning Moscow for the Crimea. Since then, cooperation in the field of economy, defense and intelligence began to increase. In Russia there is no anti-Israel movement “Boycott, isolation and sanctions” (BDS).
Russia knows that the Israeli attack aimed to establish its domination in the middle East, and then to divide Iraq, Libya and Syria, will eventually reach Iran. Perhaps she is on the winning side. Kuwaiti newspaper “al-Jarida” (Al-Jarida) wrote in March that two Israeli jet fighter flew over Iranian airspace, flying in front of it over Syria and Iraq. According to the newspaper, the aircraft was not seen by radar. Truthfully this post or not, but it shows a greater degree of tension between the two countries. This event coincides with the exercise “juniper Cobra 2018″ (the”Juniper Cobra 2018”), organized by the European command of the United States and Israel. During the exercise, you used the missile system “arrow”, “Iron dome”, “patriot” and “Sling of David”. Russia is not going to get involved in a war in which, on the one hand, participates Shiite Iran, and with another — the rest of the world.
Moscow rightly sees the danger in the regional policy of Tehran, built on the confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia and Iran and Israel, as well as its approach to relations between Sunnis and Shiites. It’s hard to believe that she does not see danger from the militaristic expansionism of Israel.
Russia has no strategy in the middle East. The absence of ideology, deriving from its relations with middle Eastern countries, it entered into temporary alliances, but has no allies, and its purposes are to obtain immediate benefits. It’s pragmatism, pure and simple. For example, in 2017 for the first time in the history of Russia Saudi king was invited to the Kremlin. The USSR broke off relations with Riyadh over its support of Islamic terrorists and conspiracy to reduce oil prices in the 80-ies with the aim to strike at the Soviet economy. Priorities of Russian foreign policy are in order: USA, Europe, China and then the middle East. Syria is the only country with which Russia maintains a strategic relationship.
— Moscow (due to the Iranian nuclear deal was added to the application) may render pressure on Iran to go on even big concessions to their opponents, hoping thus to prevent a large-scale military clash between them. In this case, Russia is making a big mistake. First, because Iran can no longer make concessions (he already did by signing the nuclear deal!). Second, the US goal is to redraw the map of the Middle East in accordance with their new interests, although at the head of the middle Eastern countries are their puppets and allies.
Tehran, which continues to see the world through the prism of the cold war, hoping that the neighbor to the North will protect him from enemies. Is there not remember that Russia has supported sanctions against Iran proposed by the Bush and Obama at the Security Council, and refused the supplies already paid for rocket complexes With-300, while Tehran has threatened to appeal to the international court? And now Russian oil company “LUKOIL” freezes its contracts with Iran due to pressure from the United States. For current owners of the Kremlin, the US is a partner, sometimes rival, but not enemy.
After the Soviet collapse blocks no longer exists. There is a war of all against all, unions then there, then disappear. Today’s friend is tomorrow’s enemy.
Tehran could not imagine that seven years of support for Assad, which killed hundreds of people (Iranians, Lebanese, Afghans, Iraqis and others), which had spent tens of billions of dollars, it will increase the vulnerability instead, to improve security. My angry response was not long in coming: “we are in Syria in 2011, fighting with anti-government forces. And to suggest we can leave Assad, not Putin”. But Assad also did not strengthen the confidence with Iran. And the leadership of the Islamic Republic suggested it as quickly as possible to repay the huge debt. How Assad is going to rebuild the country, if his army is dependent on Pro-Iranian militia? Or, according to sirialeaks, the plan of the Balkanization of Syria is already running, and Assad accept this? Russia and the United States should not underestimate Assad: about 70 leaders of the Arab tribes of Syria gathered last week in Deir Hafer, located in the outskirts of Aleppo, to form a large militia and expel “illegal” occupiers. With the help of Iranian money?
Hard to believe that the Iranian-Syrian coalition (even when you point the support of Russia) really expected to win the war in two dozen countries, including the West, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. The Pentagon has already launched at least 15 military bases in Syria, which could throw hundreds of thousands of troops.
Paradoxically, the fact that Iran cannot leave Syria, as in this case, it will lose the last line of defense against a possible attack of Israel, but also to stay there. That was Obama’s plan: not to overthrow Assad but to turn Syria into a swamp for his enemies and opponents.