Soothing the dynamics of the dollar, which fell below 57 rubles, did not affect the value of cars in January, took another wave of price increase, and this is just the warm-up before an even more serious escalation.
As far as increased prices
Car prices in Russia were already fixed at a record level, but still continue to grow: in January, the price lists of the most popular models of the updated “plus”. However, in contrast to the events of three years ago, the current adjustment is not so considerable: most models cost about 1 million rubles went up by 10-20 thousand rubles.
So, popular Lada Vesta Comfort 1.6 MT a year ago cost 599 thousand rubles, end of last year, 608 thousand in January — 623 thousand. A similar trend is observed for other models: 10 thousand added Hundai Solaris and Creta, a Lada and Kalina, on 13 thousand rose Renault Logan, 20 thousand — the Skoda Octavia.
Prices on some models remained at the same level, for example, an island of stability became Ford Focus, Toyota Camry, Nissan Qashai.
In itself, the January increase in prices is Russia’s traditional, and almost never is justified by the companies. In part, this measure is needed to stimulate demand for last year’s model, which are now sold out at old prices, and sometimes discounts. Fresh cars at the January prices usually come no earlier than February-March.
However, given the already high prices, a new appreciation of perceived pain. For comparison, in January 2015, Lada a base after the sharp appreciation of cost 311 600 rubles, now for the same car asking for 400 thousand. Hyundai Solaris can be bought for 566 400 rubles, now “Solaris” a new generation with the same equipment is 804 900 rubles. The ratio of the dollar for January 2015 and January 2018 69 rubles and 57 rubles, respectively.
This is not the limit
The January price hike it is possible to recognize routine, so it does not take into account a number of circumstances that threaten to shake up the car market during the year.
So, the government announced an increase in the recycling fee, and not in homeopathic doses. If last year it was about the adjustments for 15% now discuss the almost twofold increase. According to media reports, the increase will be differentiated, but tricky: if for cars with engines of 1 litre the duty will increase by only 16%, then the most popular category 1-2 liters — 90%!
What this means, in ruble terms? Initially, the recycling fee for cars with engines of 1-2 liters was $ 26.8 thousand rubles, in 2016 it was raised to 44.2 thousand If the government plan is implemented, the fee will increase to 84 thousand rubles, that is, for the most mass segment of the recycling increase will reach 40 thousand rubles.
In addition, the Federal budget 2018 provides for the growth of excises on cars, which will mainly affect powerful machines. If now the engine is more powerful 150 HP paid 420 rubles for “horse”, by new rules, the excise tax will grow twice or more for vehicles more powerful 200 HP For comparison, if the machine 250 HP, now pay 109 thousand rubles, this year the excise tax will exceed 220 thousand.
Experts disagree about the extent of annual price increase, calling the values from 2 to 15%. Thus, the head of the AEB automobile manufacturers Committee Joerg Schreiber believes that without the above factors, the price increase would be moderate.
“Increased excise taxes, and hundreds of thousands of rubles. This may not affect the price of the car. Question utilsbora also waiting to be solved, therefore, factors in favor of raising several. If they were not, a significant price rise would not have happened,” he said.
Why prices fell after the dollar?
In the period of sharp jumps of exchange rates automakers liked to explain rising prices high share of foreign currency cost. So why in the stabilization of the courses there is no downward trend?
The explanation is equally simple: when at the intersection of 2014 and 2015 currency exchange rates have soared by almost twice, the price of cars has increased but not in direct proportion. Gradually, the growth of ruble prices and the reassurance of exchange rates was “counter-tendencies”, and the equilibrium point was reached last year. Now the prices are driven up by other factors, including General inflation and revitalising demand.
The revival of the market in the past year, though weak (+12% relative to the failed 2016) still allow companies to feel more at ease, as the low point for the market is considered to have passed. In addition, people driving into car dealerships pent-up demand: cars bought by those who refrained from this in the years of currency shocks.
Buy discount
Buy now or wait? Prerequisites for reduction or even maintaining prices in the course of the year a bit: for positive change is needed extraordinary factors such as a sharp drawdown in exchange rates. As usual to postpone the purchase of the car, if it is really needed, is hardly appropriate.
In January-February, the dealers are usually the most accommodating, particularly in relation to illiquid kits, which failed to sell in the days of the Christmas rush. But you need to be prepared that the car will be a 2017 release.
To reduce the price may be at the expense of the state program “First car” and “Family car”, which resumed its work on 1 January, although the conditions become a little less loyal. Overall, the new program repeat last year and applies to the cars price to 1.45 million rubles that buy on credit. But if you had given a discount of 10% and the subsidized interest rate, now only discount.
Program participants may be those who buy the car for the first time or has two children under age.
The new reality is: the average car today costs in the region of 1 million rubles, and everything is much cheaper this bar applies mainly to the segment, which we formerly called budget. The mid-size crossover in the middle of the range is about 1.5 million and above, the full — size is closer to 2 million.
