OTC Mishustin 67
POWER AND SOCIETY TODAY AT 11:45 MIKHAIL KHAZIN 6624 9.7 (38)
It is very interesting to look at the situation in the country. Even the oligarchs of the 90s, who can hardly be suspected of love for the people, begin to build some plans regarding a new “social contract”. About the rest, even say nothing, it is enough to read the conversations about the events in Khabarovsk and different in their interpretation. Prime Mishustin says a very curious speech in the Duma, which shows that it is going to firmly take the situation (i.e. financial flows) under control.
The reasons for this activity is simple – the level of tension in the country and the world is growing all the time. Intensified assaults on our country (with the requirement to remove Putin), and deteriorating situation in the economy. Time left month and a half, then start a serious disassembly, as by society (and here the Khabarovsk seem flowers), and the elite that is not in the West wants any trouble with your honestly stolen billions, but at the same time, realizes that to keep the old model in Russia, too, will fail. And if not Russia (or in Russia, they will have problems), then to save money will not work.
No, of course, we can assume that the fall will be nothing and things will work out, but so naive people still in power are not so much. Just because the already falling economy and declining incomes caused the growth of irritation, and the story of the coronavirus and sharp economic decline aggravated But the question is: to do what?
Recipes Mishustin can reveal part of the hidden financial flows (mostly poor people), which will inevitably reduce the already small scale of small and medium business. I translate into Russian language: it means that to feed these people and their families will have, one way or another, the state. Why, then, Mishustin does it? But because he sees the hidden financial flows and wants to make them transparent for the budget. But what flows…
Basically, the money is concentrated in two directions.
The first is to work “socially close”, that is, liberastov. A typical example is the case of government. Ready Mishustin EN masse to put conditional “Serebrennikov” and it is unconditional Chubais? If not, the money he from this situation will get very little, but the social expenses of the budget will grow. Because small and medium businesses will simply be closed, to withstand full payment in accordance with liberasticheskie Tax code and mesoscincus administration for SMEs would be impossible.
And the second part is a large company, and often they do this through the withdrawal of income from the country. And this conclusion is encouraged by the (current) government, that is the same Mishustin. In any case, the anti-crisis plan says that exchange controls liberalized. So on the specific slides of the presentation Mishustin in the state Duma, everything can look quite nice, but in reality, the trick will not work. Well, just did. Another thing is that Mishustin not an economist, he was a tax collector-a technocrat, his job is to work with financial flows, but he absolutely does not know where they come from. For this you need to be an economist, but the government economists are almost there.
Theoretically, such is the Belousov, but it is a post which all the time is spent signing paperwork and meetings, and participate in these meetings and write papers accountants and/or “effective menagery”… Which in principle do not understand how and where these same financial flows (not to mention the added cost) are taken! In order to understand this, we need experts of the planning departments, heads of companies in the real sector, in the end, the people who implemented at least one program development. And where are they in government?
Such experts should be concentrated in the Ministry of economy. In my day (i.e. the 90s), they were, and then part of the Ministry of industry included departments in which were people who knew that such a sectoral program of development and the origin of profit in their sectors. And today? The Ministry of industry, where there is a separate branch departments are headed by “effective menagery” who displays the financial flows of the enterprise, but absolutely do not understand where there is value added. By the way, if only to display, not investing, then it is formed, what we have in practice. And the Ministry of economy (cynically prenasanje in “the Ministry of economic development”) led by a former accountant of the Ministry of Finance. Who only know how to write instructions how to withdraw money from budgetary allocations.
Someone can say that I am overdoing it. But let us remember the doctors who are fighting the coronavirus. Many of them still can not get the promised payments (which, I note in the budget presented in its entirety). But the liquidity problems in the sale of different kinds of houses for different sorts of “ruble” stopped instantly with the beginning of the epidemic. Do you think the “big” regional Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Finance had nothing to do with? Well, just very, very? That is, they wrote instructions for using this money to bring them to “their” it was easy, and to pay for the appointment – it is difficult or even completely impossible. So just happened to get… And in all the regions equally, nowhere accidentally got the money doctors… Amazing, right?
But back to the basic question. It is possible with extreme doubt refer to the oligarch and the General “family”, but the question is delivered correctly. Need a new social contract, which would imply complete destruction of the current system of management of the economy and Finance (budget in particular). Because even with all the desire of actors (and I’m inclined to believe that Mishustin in the current situation to deceive Putin will not) the worst they can do is slightly slow down the decline. Because what is the rise of the modern officials do not understand.
In order for growth to happen (and without it does not get anything, the only question is, mass protests will start tomorrow or the day after), we need economic staff. Strategic decisions which should be taken by the government immediately, failure to do so should be grounds for immediate dismissal of the relevant officials. Regardless of the person. And contain the headquarters needs people who understand what development and value added, which was ruled by a real company (but not on the position of the “effective Manager”) or implement a specific program. That is, the current composition of the government there can only be a member Belousov. Oh, and forgot, not a single official of the Ministry of Finance in the headquarters should not be, in any case. They even go in there for should not.
Actually, if Putin wants to go to economic growth, the creation of such a staff (the only staff, who will write the agenda and it is hard to perform, and is not formless Commission or Board) and its composition will be proof of the desire to do something. Any instructions to the government and the Central Bank today is a sham, they clearly showed Putin and us (thanks to the same Putin, who showed us their work) that do not want to work and will not be. More precisely, what their work – the withdrawal of capital, for the purchase of mansions on the “ruble”, and to maintain the world dollar system.
And the less time until mid-September, the harder it will be to work with this staff. But by October, most likely, already will not make sense because the 2020-21 season years will be lost… And then begin the emergency anti-crisis measures, including using the “Commissars in dusty helmets”, with all its consequences.
Read more on https://khazin.ru/articles/10-vlast-i-obshhestvo/82060-bezretsepturnyy-mishustin