Oil idyll, in which almost half a century to live in Russia, exchanging “black gold” on currency, technology and consumer lifestyle, is nearing the finals.
Opportunity to increase oil production in the country is almost exhausted: by the early 2020s, the oil industry of the Russian Federation will enter the peak, after which production will begin to decline, predicts the International energy Agency in the report Oil 2018.
With a record of 29 years, delivered in last year, 11.2 million barrels per day – Russia may rise only to 11.74 million barrels per day by 2021, says the IEA. To 2023-mu (the forecast horizon), the output will drop to 11.57 million barrels.
According to the Russian Ministry of natural resources, almost all oil reserves are already included in the production of: undistributed Fund for oil is only 6%. At the same time opening new fields in 2017 compensated for only 11% extracted on the surface of barrels, said in January the head of Department Sergey Donskoy.
The forecast horizon of MEA – 2023 the year, but after this period, the situation in the Russian oil industry can only get worse, says the partner of RusEnergy Mikhail Krutikhin: average size discovered for the last two years deposits – 1.7 million tons. It is the crumbs: in China alone Russia monthly delivers 3.5 times more.
“Experts from the State Commission on mineral reserves on the condition of anonymity claim that declared that the government plans to maintain oil production at over 525 million tons per year until 2035 is not based on the real situation in the industry. According to them, after 2020, production of Russian oil will begin to decline rapidly to 10% annually,” says Krutikhin.
With this rate, by 2035, the volumes will collapse in half from 11 to 6 million barrels a day. In this volume, the oil consumes Russia itself, and therefore the opportunity to export raw materials abroad will not remain.
The problem is that 70% of the reserves are tight oil, its cost 70 dollars on land up to 150 dollars per barrel in the Arctic, besides the necessary technology, access to which is blocked by the sanctions of the West, reminds Krutikhin.
Russian companies experience “the lack of technology and investment for the next generation of projects,” the report says the IEA. The situation, according to the Agency, could fix the tax cuts for oil companies. But such a scenario is practically impossible, when you consider that the Federal budget is filled with oil and gas revenues by 45%.
Russia produces 10% of all oil in the world, and science and innovation spends only 1% of world investment, indicates the Deputy Director of “development Center” HSE Valery Mironov.
The share of innovative development of the Russian mining enterprises from 30% in 2011, fell to zero in 2016. the oil recovery Factor (CIN) being developed for RF fields of about 25%, whereas the leaders in the world – 45%, gives examples Mironov.
The risks of a collapse of oil production is one of the main “black swans” for the Russian economy in the coming years: it will deprive the country of critically needed foreign exchange earnings, says the Director of the Economic policy program of the Carnegie Moscow Center Andrei Movchan.
The sale of oil, according to the Bank, gives 26% of the total coming into the country currency; in General, oil and gas exports – 60%. The Federal budget provided by oil at 40% directly, but when you consider all indirect effects (for example, the import of goods for oil money), some 84 percent, he calculated.
“As it happens, we can see the example of Venezuela, which lost nearly two-thirds of the possible production for ten years and already buys oil abroad,” warns the man.