The consent of the United States for the supply of s-400 Turkey, apparently, had a batch nature. Erdogan finally settled all issues with the coalition and are intensively preparing for the implementation of large-scale operation in Syria. On the border with Syria has already deployed about 80 thousand soldiers of the Turkish army, the corresponding amount of military equipment, border airfields filled with military aircraft. While troops continue to arrive.
Significant consolidation of forces of the Turkish army was celebrated last week. The main question is, what is the scope of future operations. Whether it is limited to only the East Bank of the Euphrates, or the Turks will conduct an operation to take control of Manuja. Moreover, the question may arise with the city of Aleppo, which the Turks are actually “sold” to Iran in the 16th year in exchange for the agreement of Iran and the Kremlin with the operation “shield of the Euphrates”. The Turks never abandoned Aleppo, and returning it under control (formally under the control of the opposition) was always in the plans. What is clear: in Syria there are two recognized capital Damascus and Aleppo, and if we are talking about the create a free from Assad’s Syria, making it the capital of Idlib is completely illogical.
The possibility of Assad and the Kremlin to counteract the operation, Erdogan is not. Hopeless dreary fighting in North Hama demonstrated that the offensive capabilities of the Assad exhausted. Threats Mamimo over the last six months has increased dramatically. So from this side, Erdogan has nothing to fear. The main problem of Turkey are the Kurds and that is why the operation was postponed, as Erdogan tried to negotiate with the coalition (read US) to guarantee the withdrawal of Kurdish forces. Apparently, such arrangements have been made, which led to a sharp build-up of preparations for the offensive.
However, the task is extremely difficult – perimeter new security zone will be at least two times greater than that of the previous two operations, “Shield of the Euphrates” and “Olive branch”. So this time is ready to be used by the Turkish army – almost all that Turkey may enter, without weakening the defense of the whole country. In addition to the army, in the attack, will be involved about 40 thousand militants of the opposition. Consider that now in Hama and Latakia in addition to these 40 thousand in reserve, part in the fights take about 20 thousand people. In fact, the military potential of Large areas of Idlib and “Shield of the Euphrates” exceeds all military capabilities of Damascus. And it is likely that after the Turkish operations and the creation of buffer zones along the Turkish border will begin preparations for the final solution of the Syrian issue. Even if it will take another three to five years. In the East are generally not used in a hurry.
For trump, the situation is more than favorable, as Turkey will inevitably enter into conflict with the Pro-Iranian Shiites in a combat zone and actually take on the issue of threats to the objects of the IRGC in Syria. Erdogan is not ready to break off relations with Iran, but it will inevitably have to revise the previous layouts and arrangements.
In the case of Turkey, the Kremlin will have no choice but to swallow in silence the military exercise partners. There is nothing to counteract, to increase the grouping too, and the threat Mamimo looks quite powerful, not to commit rash acts. Most likely, the Kremlin will prefer to ignore the continuing partition of Syria, and it is clearly beyond the framework of the Astana agreements.
In this case, and to withdraw its troops from Syria, Putin is not able – he’s stuck. You can endlessly look at three things – the explosion of the Yellowstone, on the collapse of the dollar and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria. Three quite equivalent events.