National Interest: the Decision trump Jerusalem as a gift for Iran

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National Interest: Решение Трампа по Иерусалиму — подарок для Ирана

Despite decades of foreign policy practitioners and international opposition, the US President Donald trump admitted on 6 December 2017, Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and also promised to eventually move there and the U.S. Embassy. The basis for this decision was adopted by the Congress on the Law of the Embassy in Jerusalem 1995. Predecessors trump, bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama used existing law loophole, whereby they were able to preserve the status quo and avoid dangerous decisions. Now the Israeli lobby was able to convince trump to the correctness of this course than made a gift to the hardliners of Iran, writes Farhad, Resea in an article for the National Interest.

First of all, to the delight came in the Islamic revolutionary guards Corps (IRGC) and their units to conduct operations abroad, “al-Quds”. According to Iranian news Agency Tasnim associated with the IRGC, decisions trump had a number of advantages.

“Due to this situation simplifies the work of Iran on the formation of the resistance front, in which the key role is played by the defense of Palestine,” — said the Agency.

Other media spread the statement of the head of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, according to which trump opened the “doors of hell”. The head of the General staff of the armed forces Mohammad Hossein Bagheri stressed that now attempts the liberation of Jerusalem will be made more actively than ever. In turn, the newspaper Kayhan, which is considered the “mouthpiece” of the Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, wrote that trump’s decision only accelerated the death of Israel. If you do not pay attention to these and other allegations, under these circumstances, the hardliners of Iran can take a number of steps.

First, they can try to strengthen its position in the Arab world. Since 2011, these positions greatly weakened because of the support by the Tehran government of Syria. Due to the civil war in the Arab country, Saudi Arabia has been able to take advantage of the situation and to convince Arab States that Iran, not Israel is the main threat to the Arab world. According to a survey of the Interdisciplinary centre in the Israeli city of Herzliya, the Kingdom’s citizens are more concerned about Iran than Israel, with 53% of respondents said it is the Islamic Republic, the main opponent of Saudi Arabia. Of trump this dynamic will change, that will give Iran an opportunity to shift attention to Israel.

Secondly, Iran will try to discredit the moderate Arab governments who cooperate with Israel, including in Saudi Arabia — the main enemy of Iran. Thus, immediately after the announcement, trump foreign Minister of Iran Mohammad Javad Zarif said:

“If half of the funds that some governments in the region spend on inciting terrorism, extremism, sectarian strife and calls for violence against their neighbors, would be aimed at the liberation of Palestine, we wouldn’t have to face the audacity of US who are trying to “fix promises those who do not belong there and who don’t deserve it”. However, Jerusalem is still Arab and Islamic entity”.

If moderate Arab governments will be forced to move away from Israel, costs will be significant, especially in military and intelligence fields. So, for the last several years in relations between Israel and countries of the region, major changes have occurred for Example, the rapprochement between Riyadh and tel Aviv due to the General concern of regional policy of Iran and its nuclear program.

Israeli officials admitted that their country and Saudi Arabia share a common view on Iran’s intentions. Moreover, in an interview with Elaph, Saudi Arabia’s chief of General stabilaizing forces of Israel the General-Lieutenant Gadi Gadi eizenkot hinted that Riyadh and tel Aviv share information on how to counteract Iran. Observers did not rule out the possibility that both parties may even establish diplomatic ties. Iran will make every effort to prevent such developments.

Thirdly, the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps will use the solution trump and expected violent protests to intensify recruiting members of the Shia and other groups in their ranks. So, division “al-Kuds” in control of more than fifteen Shiite armed groups, mostly from Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and other places where there are a significant number of Shiites. Created to combat ISIS (organization banned in Russia), they now, after the defeat of the radicals, looking for a new purpose. And that goal was readily selected in the face of Israel and the United States, which is necessary to protect Jerusalem.

Probably with the filing of the heads of divisions “al-Quds” Qassem Suleimani, the Iraqi Shiite militia “Harakat An-Nujaba” — fraction, a part of the forces of popular mobilization, issued a threat about the possibility of a strike by the US military in Iraq. According to the group’s leader, Akram al-Kaabi, “a stupid decision trump… will be a big spark, due to which this entity [Israel] will be erased from the body of the Islamic nation, and a legitimate reason to strike at American troops.”

Finally, the solution trump will change the balance of power between Hamas, which controls the Gaza strip, and political party, Fatah, which controls the Palestinian authority on the West Bank of the Jordan river. In October 2017 the Hamas movement, which has experienced increasing difficulties in managing the Gaza strip, signed under the mediation of Egypt agreement on reconciliation with Fatah.

However, the negotiations have stalled because Hamas and the organization, “Palestinian Islamic Jihad” (PID) refused to go to disarmament. In “al-Quds”, which controls PID was strongly against the agreement, despite the fact that its leader, Ahmad al-Mudallal and denied it. And now, when Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh called for a new intifada, and promised to open the gates of hell, the leadership of Fatah will be much more difficult to achieve disarmament.

Thus, although the decision of trump on Jerusalem and will not lead to a new intifada or violence against US citizens in the middle East, the hardliners of Iran now believe that the probability of failure of the Saudi-led campaign against the Islamic Republic.

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