Mystery-2017: wages are rising, but no money

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Загадка-2017: зарплаты растут, а денег нет

The average income of the population to the subsistence level reduced as a whole in Russia and in most regions. The decrease occurred in 62 regions, growth in 22 regions. The data provided by the Institute for social analysis and forecasting (INSAP) of Ranepa in the monthly monitor, published on Monday.

For the first three quarters of this year, the poverty level amounted to (13.8 per cent). This is below the poverty indicators for January-September 2015-2016, but higher than in 2012-2014 (minimum of 10.7% was recorded in 2012). If you take the quarterly dynamics, in the third quarter, the poverty rate fell to 13.1% (about 19 million), but this is the highest July-September over the past six years.

The monitor also notes that self-assessment by Russians of their financial standing almost unchanged in the last three years. The poor consider themselves to be 20-23% of the population, whereas in 2014, those belong only 15%.

It is also worth noting that in October of 2017 the real disposable incomes of population (incomes adjusted for inflation and mandatory payments) decreased compared to the same period last year by 1.3%. They declined in September and August. In January-October, revenues fell by the same 1.3 percent compared to the same period a year earlier.

Real incomes are declining for almost four consecutive years: in 2016, revenues fell by 5.9% in real terms in 2015 and by 3.2% in 2014, declining 0.7 percent. And, it seems, this year will be no exception.

But the official forecasts are optimistic. In April, the Ministry had forecast growth of real income in 2017 by 1%. In August, the bracket has risen to 1.2%. In October, the forecast that was submitted to the state Duma together with the draft three-year Federal budget, the assessment was increased to 1.3%.

The dynamics of income and wages is at odds, experts say Ranepa. Real gross wage per employee for the first 10 months increased by 4.3%. Pensions increased in the same period by 1.5%.

Answering the question “Газеты.Ru” why, despite the growth of salaries and pensions, real incomes are falling, the head INCAP Tatyana Maleva said: “I Have a puzzle, too, did not happen. Will have to wait for the final data of Rosstat 2017”.

The discrepancy is explained in particular by the fact that observed wages and pensions, “is not more than 60% of the total volume of monetary incomes of the population.” Other income in the grey economy, which is poorly statistics. There is speculation that the income in the gray sector has recently reduced so significantly that they “spoil” the official statistics.

In conditions barely noticeable economic growth, the business revenue are falling, the business, including the shadow, optimizes the costs of wages in envelopes is reduced. Also reduced unaccounted incomes of delivery of property in rent and other income.

Against the backdrop of falling real incomes on the rise in consumer demand. This, for example, spoke at a recent press conference Putin.

“The economy today, more and more based on domestic demand, even if we have falling real incomes for the last time, just this year, is gradually reviving domestic demand, domestic trade grew by 3% already,” he said.

These 3% are the data for October of this year. According to Rosstat, retail trade turnover in January-October totalled a more modest 0.8 percent. That is, consumption growth, although modest, is available. But at what expense?

According to Maleva, the Russians are tired of the familiar with the 2014 model of the behavior of “save on all”. Many people want to return to “normal life” and if the money is not, taken out a personal loan.

Hence the growth of lending and, by the way, the growth of overdue debt on loans (7.5% in the January-September). And before the New year Russians have become even apply credits to food and gifts. The amount of the loan on average is 27-30 thousand rubles. This is evidenced by studies of MFIs “Home money”.

How long will be able to grow domestic demand through loans, is unknown. But due to the increase of salaries of such growth will not be long. Average wages in real terms are still below the pre-crisis level in 2013. Another pre-crisis level in 2007 — and no one remembers.

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