The world’s largest oil traders do not expect any improvement in the oil market in the next 12 months. To such conclusion came after a Bloomberg poll of participants of the annual Asia-Pacific petroleum conference in Singapore. As it turned out, 14 of the 15 major oil traders and executives believe that for at least another year, oil prices will remain in the corridor between 40 and 60 dollars per barrel.
“The problem is that as soon as prices begin to rise, instantly earn American drilling rigs, and oil production in the US will rise again,” says Arzu Azimov, Socar Trading SA. The market will remain in the range of from 40 to 50 dollars, with a maximum of 55″.
“The oil market a long time can not be balanced, says Saad Rahim, chief economist of the Trafigura Group Pte. First, he has to absorb many millions of barrels of reserves accumulated during the price decline”.
The scepticism prevailing in major energy conference in Asia, reflects the lack of confidence of the market that OPEC and other producers will be able to negotiate in Algeria about frozen prey. But even if it happens suddenly, the freeze will have only a very limited impact on prices, said Amrita sen, chief analyst on issues of oil industry analysts at Energy Aspects.
First, major manufacturers continue to beat records of production and its freezing at this level will make little difference. And secondly, the market could lose confidence in OPEC as they are very a lot of talk and very little doing.
At the same time, traders think that strong falling of the prices is not worth waiting, because the surplus is declining due to the growth of oil purchases from Asia. “Overall, we are getting closer to the balance, says Aong tan, head of Asian marketing division of BP Plc. — Consumption is gradually catching up with supply.”
However, even if demand at some point will exceed supply deficit in the market will not arise, since it will be closed by huge amounts of oil that have been accumulating for 2014. Keisuke Sadamori, Director of market Department at the International energy Agency, told the conference that the accumulated oil resources has not even started to decrease, and will long continue to exert pressure on prices.
