Kuril chess game: after 20 moves Russia is in zugzwang?


Курильская шахматная партия: после 20 хода Россия в цугцванге?

Kuril topic continues to be the center of attention of wide circles of the Russian public, as evidenced by the publication on the website of IA REGNUM, in the weekly “ain” and other media. Particularly in a number of these publications stands open letter to Putin celebrating “Victory Day over Japan”, which was signed by members of the military fighting against Japan, well-known scientists, public figures, representatives of veterans ‘ organizations, and which was first published on this website on 30 October 2017.

This Appeal was directed to the so-called President of the Russian Federation. However, due to the lack of response on the merits of the issue raised, the Appeal, which additionally from that time joined many public figures and organizations again was put on this website on 28 February 2018 and again sent to the President of the Russian Federation. And again, answer on the merits from the guarantor of the Constitution no.

Although in fairness, I must admit, the President’s Administration in the face of officials at different levels all have confirmed that Treatment received and… it is aimed, more precisely speaking, in sports, “otfutbolennym” to the Government. The latter in turn “folds” in the Ministry of defence of the Russian Federation, and even in the Ministry of labour and social protection, etc. in Other words, flew the ball “the Day of Victory over Japan” around the government’s “football field”. But that would rein in persistent Patriotic public, which still dares to the President of the Russian Federation to apply, and even teach servicemen of the presidential administration that they give answers exceeding their competence, encourages them, as much as such a Deputy head of the Department a written request, as lords can “…to appeal decision on this appeal judgment… in court…”. So neither more nor less, and slap all of you war veterans, public figures, scientists with their “Day of Victory over Japan” in courts and there to prove that we — the presidential servicemen — not the answers you helmet. Remind servicemen of the AP, if they have forgotten that “the Day of Victory over Japan” is equal in value in the great Patriotic war to this day as “the Day of Victory over Germany”. About that equivalent of the medal, the VETERANS of our country proudly wearing, and who have not, children, grandchildren cherish.

And what are seeking the authors of the Appeal to the President of the Russian Federation V. V. Putin? Only one, and they, at the end of Treatment directly and write “we Believe that the deliberate concealment, and, in fact, illegal cancellation of victory Day over Japan requires a thorough investigation, and the date September 3 — the official recognition of a day of national celebration — victory over Japan”. The solution to this question is obvious: to report to the President of the Russian Federation prepared by the indication, which would be clearly reflected — a Decree on the celebration every year on September 3 victory Day over Japan on September 2, 1945, has not been canceled, therefore, continue to celebrate it. And that’s all!

So why isn’t it done? I guess because the Day of victory over Japan was probably “put-donated” by our side during that, figuratively speaking, the Kuril chess — party talks, Abe — Putin, which has been ongoing in the course of their 20 meetings.

A small digression, in order to share with servicemen of the Russian up in warning to them, as in such cases reacts brotherly Belarusian AP. Being, at the time, on personal business in Minsk handed over a letter addressed to the President of Belarus Republic A. G. Lukashenko, attaching to it the book “the Russian Kuril Islands. History and Modernity”. The answer did not expect, but he followed, finding me in Murmansk, without delay and specific. Take the example of the Russian servicemen up from their Belarusian colleagues!

Soon after the elections, are expected to enter the 21st meeting between course leaders of Russia and Japan. On it V. Putin, which, apparently, blacks have to make the next move in the complicated, my perception of the situation. Apparently, the Russian side was in zugzwang. In chess, as we know, this term characterize this situation the player who needs to make your move and any move he worsens his position. How could this happen?

Analysis of the ongoing negotiations at stake that “a peace Treaty in exchange for two Islands of the South Kuril Islands: Kunashir and Iturup, as well as the island of the lesser Kuril ridge and the island of Shikotan” sketchy covers of the official Russian and Japanese circles, but analyzes in detail by experts, scientists, journalists in the media. It is sufficient to refer to a number of publications and on this website that allows the author to brief abstracts of the interim results of these negotiations. However, note that this brief summary the author’s personal opinion, which may be elements of subjectivity.

So. Publicly, Russia, based on official statements of the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin (it runs independently of the negotiations — is the chess Board and moves of pieces) and Minister of foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation S. Lavrov (constantly involved in negotiations — the second (in chess terminology) to V. Putin), did not conduct any negotiations with Japan on the transfer of the southern Kuriles, the Islands of the lesser Kuril ridge and the island of Shikotan. Moreover, they repeatedly stated that Russia has no territorial claims to Japan. Japan has territorial claims to Russia, but we — Russia — do not recognize them. If you do not recognize, why sit at the negotiating table?

Besides, as for the peace Treaty, it is, according to Putin and Lavrov, would have to conclude due to previous commitments (Declaration of 1956) and for the further development of bilateral relations. Let me remind you that, indeed, according to the Declaration of 1956 there was an agreement between the USSR and Japan on the conclusion of a peace Treaty and subsequent to her transfer “…the Habomai Islands (lesser Kuril ridge in modern terminology; explanation of the author) and the island of Shikotan (Shikotan in the modern terminology) provided, however, that the actual transfer of these Islands to Japan will be made after the conclusion of a peace Treaty…”. However, in 1960 due to the signing of the “Treaty of mutual cooperation and security” between the United States and Japan the agreement on the conclusion of the peace Treaty was the Soviet Union cancelled because there was a threat of the use of the transferred Islands for military purposes by the Americans. However, the Russian side on the basis of the evolving situation, still leads the negotiations on the conclusion with Japan of the peace Treaty. Such an approach was allegedly proposed by V. V. Putin the Japanese side.

The other view is held by Japan. Its leader, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (he leads the negotiations themselves — is at the chessboard and moves the pieces) and the Minister of foreign Affairs T. Kono (participate in the negotiations as the second (in chess terminology), S. Abe) declare that they really are in talks with the Russian side on the conclusion of a peace Treaty in conjunction with the decision of the territorial issue. And, in particular, the return of the Islands of the South Kuril Islands, the Islands of the lesser Kuril ridge and the island of Shikotan. These Islands are proclaimed by the Parliament of Japan as “Northern territories of Japan”. This fundamental position of the Japanese side remains unchanged all 20 meetings — moves, talks at the highest level.

Thus, taking the Kuril chess Shinzo Abe and Vladimir Putin, diametrically different assessments of the possibility of concluding a peace Treaty. Besides, they have to consider also the majority opinion of the population on this issue that exists in their country. And it is this: in Russia — one inch of its territory; in Japan, give all the southern Kuril Islands of the lesser Kuril ridge and the island of Shikotan. In these conditions, probably Abe suggested, and Vladimir Putin agreed, without foreseeing the consequences, to go the way of building confidence between the populations of the parties and especially on the Islands “Japanese claims” through the “joint economic activities”. And this is essentially an implicit recognition of Japan’s territorial claims to the Islands! Apparently, in order to “build confidence”, the Russian side and handed over the celebration of the Victory over Japan. To say nothing of a neighbor, although the last warlord and ally of Nazi Germany, to annoy the celebration of Victory Day over Japan.

In these circumstances, when the Russian side is losing ground, the Japanese side continues its offensive, demanding the implementation of the “joint economic activities” in the Islands, which it claims to be by special laws — the rules with her. If the Russian side will go for it, then again in additional indirect recognition of its territorial claims to these Islands.

Thus, on the eve of the 21 regular meeting, Vladimir Putin and Shinzo Abe is expected to take place in may 2018 and which will continue peace Treaty negotiations, our side will have to make the next move in this Kuril party in terms of when it was, in my opinion, in the language of chess, zugzwang. I agree Vladimir Putin to continue to “build confidence” according to Japanese recipes, hence the violation of the Russian legislation. Refuse, inevitable conclusion: “Here again, the Russian side does not comply with earlier agreements”.

In these not simple conditions, and the Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia S. Lavrov, and the second V. Putin in the Kuril chess game on the eve of the 21 meetings would “calms” his boss and the Russian public and makes it clear that not everything is so bad in it. In particular, Lavrov appreciates the current situation in the negotiations: “…Yes, we would certainly conclude a peace Treaty, as was agreed in 1956, when he issued a Declaration…”. He further relates to “success” in the negotiations “…we have an agreement between the two leaders, President and Prime Minister, on joint economic activities on 4 Islands, approved on 5 specific projects, but they are quite modest: aquaculture, tourism… Important, interesting, job-creating projects but, of course, quite modest.” And the Minister argues that “…joint business activities this is a step in the direction of collaboration on most of these Islands”. But as suggested in response to this “step of the Russian side,” the Japanese side? About this silence! Although he is still foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: “We significantly advanced our relations, primarily a political dialogue at the highest level, really trusting, Frank, friendly, honest.” Here is the key word “political dialogue” and so for his sake we, as they say, “for the price”. You see, the southern Kuril Islands, in naval language, protomank. Well, at least, the lesser Kuril ridge and island Shikotan give up.

And what actually, in practical terms, would happen if the leaders of the two countries agreed to conclude a peace Treaty based on the Declaration of 1956? It, once again, the Russian side must transfer to the Japanese side after the conclusion of a peace Treaty “…the Habomai Islands (lesser Kuril ridge in modern terminology; explanation of the author) and the island of Shikotan (Shikotan in modern terminology)…”. In this case Russia will lose, along with the above-mentioned Islands and not less than 110 thousand square km of its 200-mile economic zone and about 200 tons of potential fish catches.

However, whatever it happened to the Japanese side must also gain approval from the United States. Because Japan, as expressed in the twentieth century, the “unsinkable US aircraft carrier”. However, in the twenty-first century, this thesis is questionable. Modern destructive means such that any “unsinkable aircraft carrier” do not exist.

However, Japanese foreign policy remains dependent, and even on issues such as the peace Treaty with Russia, from the United States. Here, apparently, only this turns out to be our lifesaver as don’t try on the US position in relation to the conclusion of a peace Treaty between Russia and Japan, will save all of us from the inevitable territorial losses in case of conclusion of such a peace Treaty.

However, a glimmer of another hope that the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, having appeared in the Kuril party in zugzwang, once and for all close this Japanese territorial issue to the satisfaction of the Russian population and especially those living on the Kuril Islands.


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